I don't think the race is as close as it's being reported

I keep hearing from the news that this race is neck and neck, but if you look at the trend lines, while they go up and down slightly here and there, Obama's have consistently floated above McLame's. In nearly every national poll since April or so he's been ahead by anywhere from 3 to 8 points. The trend lines for '04 weren't like that for Kerry. At times he had small leads, but Smirk seemed to have the upper edge. Going by those stats (and their internal polls, I'm sure) it's why McLame's handlers felt they had no choice other than a desperate hail Mary. They know it's slipping away so they figured it was worth the risk. Like in Scrabble when you can't come up with a word, so you throw all your letters back and try again. A huge risk, but one they felt they had to take.

Palin, IMO, while energizing and solidifying the base (that would've held its nose and voted for McLame anyway), will lose more undecideds than he gains due her inexperience, extreme stances on issues, and all the scandals and skeletons in her closet. I don't think she's got the broad appeal the RW wants us to think. She didn't come across that well in her debut to America at the convention. She was competent, tough and had a lot of cute one liners, but they/she went too far in word and in tone. She came across as smug and mean, not likable (except to the 29% who still like Smirk).

But in the end it comes down to the top of the ticket. I'm actually glad McLame's speech got huge ratings. He looked old and tired and awkward, the speech was bad. Out of touch.

The convention was replete with moldy RW talking points given in a mean spirited way. Not only did they miss the mark on tone, but the content didn't address the biggest concerns most of American's have on the economy - and their desire for an end to the partisanship so government can get things done. Out of touch and more of the same.

Not to mention the confusing mix of messages full of contradictions.

Compare that mess to Obama's convention. It/he looked like a million bucks, he showed American's just tuning in to this race he's got it together. The speech, that amazing speech . . . he passed the CIC test, oh yes, and he, and Michelle, defined themselves.

We all know that from here on out the Republican machine will try every trick in the book, probably more negative ads then we've ever seen. But I personally don't think negative ads work if they're directed at a candidate who people like and have decided to vote for. That's why the RW tried so hard to define Obama before the conventions. Barack owned that.

I could go on, but I'll stop now. So much more to feel positive about than not. Just my couple. :)

The posterchild for abstinance only ed.

As we've come to see.

for why elections turn out the way they do based on Republican talking points. I noticed this after the '04 election. Even though they won, they were putting out a bunch of spin on why Smirk won which the media, and even Democrats, begin to assume is the case. I don't buy a lot of it.

In 2004, they needed to explain the flip in election results from exit polls showing Kerry 51%, Bush 48%. So "Guns, God & Gays" was ready to roll out to discuss, pretending as the RNC does, that the USA has more conservative sentiment than it really does.

While other polling can be shaped by the questions asked and the people chosen for interviewing, exit polling has proven to be the most accurate type because people are asked a simple question, Who Did You Vote For? Right after they did it. We use exit polling data to gauge the fairness of elections around the globe. Our government has challenged other countries' elections based on exit polling. But in 2004 the corporate media also pulled together some big-stretch commentary about the accuracy of exit polling. They even tried to get it shut down or to pretend that early exit polling might influence the results so it couldn't be reported until polls closed. But the main TV talk was the "Guns, God & Gays" theme promoted by RNC operatives.

In 2008, the extremist Palin is an embodiment of the fundamentalist sentiments the RNC wants to keep pretending are more pervasive than they really are. The networks are accustomed to adopting most of the RNC talking points and can use the trumped up data on Hillary and the poor working class who supposedly wouldn't support a candidate whose background is far closer to theirs than is John Sidney McCain III's, the humble servant with seven homes. Even though that line of argument can be disproved, TV pundits still say Obama has a problem with working class whites.

I agree with Michael Moore that a lot of people of all parties know the nation needs change and will probably vote for Obama, even if they've never voted Democratic before. They know the Republicans have sunk our economy and are warmongers. Other people will vote Democratic because they are scared of having an inexperienced extremist fundamentalist like Palin on the Republican ticket.

But I am sure the networks can easily cobble together some sincere panel discussions about continued racism in America if the election is stolen again.

So I sincerely hope the Republicans don't steal enough votes to win election 2008. I hope the people will be allowed to choose Obama because the nation needs to take fast action on alternative energy and needs Democratic economic management because the Republicans have failed so thoroughly.

there are Democratic Governor's in Colorado and Ohio so corrupt Repubs won't be in a position to steal either state.

Ohio was clearly stolen.

How much did the campaigns pull in after the conventions?
I'll take the way people vote with money over the anything the media and their polls say.

That is a huge advantage.

Personal experience, I have been contacted at least four time already by the campaign. I went out to canvass with them today and hit a neighborhood that had already been canvassed the week before. The woman I was with was annoyed, but I thought it was great. Those voters already had two face to face contacts with the campaign and we are only one week past our convention! So from an ants eye view on the ground here in Charlotte, things look good.

Mo means momentum if anyone gets confused.