O 260 EV, M 179 EV, Toss Up 99EV - Seriously, how does JM get to 270 electoral votes?

http://www.pollster.com/


Not to mention:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Obama 301 McCain 224 Ties 13





http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

Barack Obama 238

183 Solid 55 Leaning

John McCain 174

142 Solid 32 Leaning

Toss Up 126



I can see a dozen different ways for Obama to get what he needs to win, however, McCain will have to completely run the tables. Literally, every single state that's a toss up will have to fall McCain's way for him to win and I just don't see that happening. I'm sure it's possible for Obama to have a complete and utter collapse of GOTV across the board in every state, but if that happens, then he probably shouldn't be POTUS anyway.

election theft.

Obama from here only needs to win one big state and a small one or two from all the in-betweens.
McCain must win them all.

that the state pollsters will start to indicate that more of the traditionally red states are in play. If McCain's team continues to ignore the press and not talk - they will certainly be at a disadvantage.

Out of sight - out of mind. Pun intended. :P

Giving him Ohio, Nevada, North Dakoda ...

Still, BO SEEMS to have a lot of outs, McCain SEEMS to have to run the Bush states.

I have said all along, Michigan is BO's key "hold" state. As long as he holds Michigan, I think he holds all the Kerry states, and then works from there - Iowa looks real good to flip, and New Mexico looks pretty good. Leaves him just a tick short, one more win.

I am starting to see where Plouffe says that McCain has to win Colorado to win.

TO me, Michigan is the key hold state, Colorado or Virginia are the game/set/match states.

Ohio ... Again, BO has worked HARD to have ways to win without it. If he gets Ohio he will have gotten into the 300 EV range.

If this race is tightening nationally it has to be tightening at the state level as well because it's the same universe of voters...States don't vote in isolation to one another...

My parents are both! :) They keep sending me group emails from all of their friends, they all hate her.

For the concerned...I can find a lot of reason how Obama can lose, but I see and have a bigger say on how he can win. It's called getting out the vote. The Obama campaign, along with Dr. Dean's 50-state efforts are showing on this map...and also this graph below:



Thanks to the protracted primary season, Democrats registered more voters in key states and are working below the radar to reach out to many first-time, independent and moderate voters. Gramps needs stunts and is fighting from "the air"...almost entirely relying on TV ads and free media. For years, the GOOP beat Democrats by out organizing them...these tables have turned...many of the 2006 victories were proof of that.

Lastly, there's the "energy" factor. It wasn't until the past week that the GOOP became "energized" and it's due to a circus and cynical game played by Camp Gramps..a desperation ploy to force unity for a weak candidate at their convention. In the process they've created a distraction that will divert a lot of their energy while Democrats have been spolin' for this election for a long time and are as solid as I've seen the party in my lifetime. The corporate media is trying to create a beauty pagent, and Camp Gramps is trying to turn this into an election for homecoming king and queen, but the fundamentals of this election have favored Senator Obama and Biden and he has run a campaign that has done what was needed to win.

corporate media ...

Need more?

breakup of media consolidation ... they'll fight back hard against that ...

I'm still not sure about Ohio. I think we've got a lot to do there.

We also need to make sure we get the vote out. Voters need to vote. If polls show Obama ahead we need to vote --- not assume it is over.

We need Ohio badly--if not then both Virginia and bColorado.