Gallup is McCain 48 Obama 45 today

they haven't posted the article yet, but they've updated the graph

This is gonna be a rough week.

McCain must have had a HUGE number yesterday when all the old people were sitting at home by there phone.

the results are multiple days combined

So they don't have to be "sitting by there (sic) phone".

Posted in wrong location

I was sure he would do no better than a tie.

~

I am concerned to be trailing in a race, even if it's temporary, in a race we should be winning by every available metric...

it is disturbing, especially since the MSM are not asking mccain/palin for accountability

I do not believe, or at least hope not, that the country has turned that far right

but if it has, then my prediction is that history books will record this as the beginning of the fall of our republic

a day that will live in infamy.

Before the Dem convention, Obama was ahead by 3.

This is certainly discouraging. It seems as if the Obama campaign knew how to win the Democratic primary, but they are being outsmarted in the general election. I hope this changes soon.

I questioned Obama/Biden's strategy and I got roasted here...

although I didn't get roasted.

Other than softball interview shows, like Leno and Letterman, most Americans haven't seen McCainiac up close. Obviously, many tuned in on the last night of the Repuke convention, and got to see him appear before a sympathetic audience. That could well change in the debates, when he has to answer serious questions against Sen. Obama.

It's not our only hope, but it's our best one to turn things around.

If the fact that McCain is ahead in the polls, and appears to have the momentum, *doesn't* concern you, then you're letting your bravado overule your intellect.

It's far too soon to start crying "we're doomed", but "we're in trouble" is if anything overdue.

and then Obama jumped to the biggest lead he's ever held.

give it a few days before screaming "Fire!"

Even Mondale got one, remember? I don't think it's high enough to warrent this much panic.

We have yet to see that the Democrats have a workable strategy for responding to the (very considerable) threat that Palin presents. That's not to say that they don't have one, or at least that they won't come up with one in time, but it's certainly a cause for worry.

I don't think panic is an appropriate response yet, but right now I have little time for anyone who presents "concern" as a bad thing right now.

I am very concerned indeed, and will remain so at least until October 3rd, and probably until Bonfire Night.

of course - but candidates always get a bounce after conventions. But posts like, "It's all over, man, we're fucked" is an over reaction.

I don't think so. I think it's the damn media myself. They spin every damn thing in McCain's favor.

it makes him look weak. I haven't been very impressed with his recent round of interviews...it's not what he's saying but his composure. Nothing like what we saw during the convention speech. Not sure why...maybe it's some sort of strategy...it's not like I'm throwing in the towel, his team has been very successful up till this point.

...when the bounce is over.

(Everybody should look at Nate's latest post at FiveThirtyEight.com about convention bounces before claiming that "the Republicans got a bigger one.")

as his VP pick the very next day following Obama's Democratic nomination. Immediately all the focus was on Carribou Barbie. McCain didn't have anything competing for his attention, so he had the advantage.

will start taking this seriously now and start attacking.

Yeah right. How's that working out now?

this is what I thought would happen...maybe now Obama/Biden will start attacking the person responsibility for the big bounce (Palin)!!!

GRRRRRRRR

F-ing grrrrrrrrrr

they're much better at sound byte conventions than we are.

Palin alone had about ten of them in her speech.

Every metric favors the Democrats

-GDP growth

-personal income growth

-years the incumbent party has been in office

Et cetera...

Sitting back, not attacking Palin and taking the attacks and laughing it off does not work....maybe thing will change...my gosh this reminds me of Kerry in 2004 and nothing worked.

You would think we would have learned that by now...Obvioualy we haven't...

Obama wants to be the nice guy, like Kerry. There is the problem. McCain and Palin are attacking, Obama wants to take the high road. Sound familiar?

we have over 4,000 dead soldiers in Iraq because Dem prez candidates took the high road...this feels very familiar to 2004...:-(

one of those metrics? Ignore metrics and listen to people.

You should be embarrassed.

They did everything Republicans are good at. They distorted and lied and were very sarcastic and belittling. And they did it all in soundbytes that can be played over and over.

And Americans ate it up, as they always do.

That's not to say they're going to win. I think we are. But it will be because of the zeitgeist - the mood of the country. Not because we had a more successful convention than they did.

And going negative helped them. Dems are too high-minded to go negative.

outsmarted and now mccain has a new, rovian campaign manager

another lee atwater

dems need to consult lakoff, get tougher, way tougher

and GET OUT THE VOTE

This is bad news.

This just means, we have to work harder. I cannot allow myself to stay negative.

it's a 3 day average. Obama had a good day (+7) on wednesday and that just fell off.

McCain led by 3-4 yesterday, if that.

Whether they show Obama up or McCain up, I just don't believe you can get an accurate sample on the weekends.

I mean, I trust Gallup very little to begin with, but I trust their weekend polls even less.

but remember, the 10% "undecided" in this race will lean one way or the other with the latest wind over the next few weeks.

This election will be decided on the ground game, and we've got that this year.

In short, they measure old people.

And then tank midweek.

I'm not saying he didn't get a bump from the convention, I'm just saying that I'll wait to see what it is once the sample represents M, T, W polling.

No reason to think this is any more of a fluke than those numbers.

The Republicans are controlling the message like usual. Dems make the mistake of thinking that the average voter wants to hear about solutions for the country. Republicans know that a sassy smile and smart glasses will trump that every time.

By using the census and previous polls...

For instance if they need for twenty percent of their respondents to be over 65 they are going to keep polling until they get that percentage

Repeat for every group...

It over-represents people with children (regardless of age), your average conservatives that don't "party", etc.

You are spreading an urban myth.

I prefer the Conventional polling of Gallop etc.

However, most polls are bias toward older adults with land lne phones, and I believe underweight the youth who mostly have cell phones

They say they take that into consideration, but I believe it still doesn't fully embrace them

~

A candidate doesn't move up eleven points in a nat'l poll without making significant gains in the states from whom the respondents are drawn...

Can't find it on their site.

They could have gone after Palin as soon as she appeared, but they decided to wait to see the polls. Expect to see them do some attacking now that they are down, just like they did after they let McCain beat them up for a few weeks.

Instead of being aggressive and taking action to get ahead, they let the other team take the lead and beat them up, then they fight back a little bit.

The problem with this strategy is that you are always on the defensive, even when on the offensive.

The poll numbers are no big deal, but the incompetence of Obama's campaign, and his wimpiness, is looking more and more like Kerry.

I got absolutely roasted for questioning Obama's strategy....you have a right to your opinion and I even agree with you.

Why the hell is Biden saying uch nice things about Palin on MTP...fuck that...he should be saying that Palin lies time after time, that she has NO experience, and that by choosing her as his running mate, McCain shows a lack of judgement that we do not need in the WH!

This is 2004 all over again.

Obama and Biden praise McCain and Palin.

McCain and Palin slam Obama and Biden.

The problem is so obvious, but Obama seems to be content to follow Kerry off the cliff.

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If Obama, a young Democrat, isn't willing to fight hard enough to win, how long will we have to wait for some Democrat who will fight as hard and mean as the Republicans?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx

Notice that Obama has his biggest lead in weeks among independents. Unless the independents graph is behind, that does not compute at all.

Oh, well - let's get to work people.

I'm NOT going to get upset at this poll at this time.

Obama IS going to win in Nov. Bet on it.

it shows that there are some people watching mccain and pallin speak, who are undecided, and then decide that the crap they're hearing makes enough sense to get their vote.

this is scary considering the stupidity of people.

There is no redemtion for us in that case, and if that happens we will enter an era where education is frowned upon, and the world will leave us behind in the dust

our candidate is supposed to be the next generation of Democrats.

Many of us thought that Kerry was the old guard and that's why he was such a wimp. Obama was supposed to be the next generation and a bold fearless fighter. That theory has not been proven. In fact, with Obama, the next generation of democratic candidates looks a lot like the previous generation - wimpy and afraid to fight as mean and dirty as the republicans. That would be an even bigger disappointment than losing a single election.

by our "friends" in the media it is like night and day

They are much tougher on us

We will know very soon just exactly what our country is, because the issues have NEVER been clearer

You seem to want to act just like them.

Like 2000 and 2004?

The last Democrat who won was just as mean as they are - Bill Clinton. Before Clinton, when was the last Democrat in the White House?

Winning is everything in politics.

and there's nothing you can do to stop it.

;)

And Kerry might have done the same as Bush (EC win, pop. vote loss though smaller) if so many votes weren't thrown out and purges/intimidation used. That Help America Vote Act only helped Repukes vote.

I think we shouldn't ignore Palin so much. She wants to have it both ways: be there and not be there. Obama should call her on it, and keep mentioning her extreme views without losing sight of McSame.

the last eight years. Hard to believe but Republicans own the slogan. Decades of am radio have primed people to accept their crap.

The rethug owners of Gallup must have had their tracking pollsters call people in Alabama or Alaska, so they could cook the numbers and massage them into what they want us to see.

That's the only way the numbers could go this way.

Why aren't their numbers zero? Are so many people that fucking STUPID?

Christ sometimes I hate this country, and am convinced God hates it too. If the fascists steal another one, I'm getting the fuck out of here. If they want America that fucking badly, then they can have it. I'll live somewhere civilized and watch from the sidelines as these assclowns shit in their own nest until the entire country falls apart and they turn on each other violently.

One night during our convention Obama had a +16%.

We can't be nervous and jittery on the controls. After the dust settles over the next week or so, better data will be available how to deal with Palin pick, and McCain's tactics. A more aggressive Obama campaign may well be in the works.

A more aggressive campaign better be on the way, or we can sign off now.

Again, these poll numbers don't mean anything except to prove once and for all that being a wimp will guarantee an Obama loss.

There are enough voters that are willing to vote for McCain that the only way to win is to destroy Palin and McCain's "likability" with advertising and attacks.

Why isn't Hillary going after Palin, by the way?

If we want to win this thing, STOP BEING NICE!!!

Nice guys finish last in politics. ALWAYS!

That's how we lost 2004, 2000, 88, 84, 80. We let the Rethugs shit all over us and didn't return fire.

Stop lauding McCain for his war service and start calling him Wetstart or Songbird. His POW story's his greatest strength, so let's attack it.

And while we're at it, break that psychopathic bitch of a running mate.

Demonize, dehumanize them, throw every molecule of shit we've got at them!!!

That's how you win.

We can't afford nice, not in the shape the country's in.

that by the time Obama figures out how to deal with Palim it will be too damn late...I remember in 2004 Kerry finally decided to start attacking and it was really to late...most people made up their minds...

Obama just had a good day on Wednesday(+7) that just dropped off.

McCain has been at ~+4 for 3 days, and that will change soon.

during the primary and during the general election.

And starting 20 days before election day I'm dedicating all my time to GOTV for the Dems.

we're winning this election.

Where are the commercials attacking Palin?

Where are high-profile supporters?

Where are the game changing ideas from this "great" political team?

I'm sick and tired of this shit. When are we going to stop being pussies?

Biden and Obama attacked Palin calling her out on her lies and went after McCain for choosing her? NOT!

The only people that watch those shows are junkies like you and me.

Every convention produces a good bounce. Lets face it - Palin makes the McCain ticket look attractive. On the other hand, infatuation usually doesn't last that long. Palin is sooner or later going to have to test her VP skills by doing real live interviews.


If this poll holds up in late September, then I'd be very worried.

and Obama had one last week. People around here get too easily discouraged.

and it is depressing to see this election so close, when what is the Supreme Court

and sad for this country. I could be wrong yet again, but maybe those Friday numbers are having a big impact and that it will go back to a small Obama lead (I still think that's where things really are.) I'm glad we're attacking more while they hide out.

FAUX keeps harping on McCain's bounce going outside the margin of error. I'll believe it when I see it - but then maybe not.

Just because you're working for a losing candidate doesn't mean you don't know what polls are accurate & which ones aren't.

Why do you want to ignore the very real reasons the pros say the Gallup poll sucks, and operate on the basis of faulty data?

I heard the same thing in 2004...

Hillary is playing nice with Palin. Who else are they waiting to unleash?

Flame if you must, but I feel like O has peaked and that Palin has given the righties that missing enthusiasm and then some.

Please convince me I'm wrong.

If you want to be a sad sack, that's your prerogative.

I knew bush was no good in 1999, well before he was even nominated. I was in the 10% who disapproved of him on 9/12.

I knew there were no WMD in Iraq in 2003, well before the invasion, which I knew was coming even though bush said it wasn't.

A DUer posted in late 2007 that the candidates would definitely, 100% for sure be Rudy and Hillary. I said neither would be a candidate and got flamed. Do you see either running for president now?

A DUer posted this past summer that Obama would definitely, 100% for sure pick Hillary as his running mate. I said he wouldn't and got flamed. Do you see Hillary running for VP now?

Now DUers are posting that McCain has no chance to win. I say he has a very strong chance of winning and get flamed. When I ask to be proven wrong I get called a "sad sack".

OK. But what if I'm right again? Flame away, my friends. Flame away.


edit: typo

Our base showed a lot of enthusiam after the Clinton and Obama speeches. Maybe both bases are energized and Gallup tracking can just show the energy of the moment?

I was worried about Obama's approach to the Repuke/Dem divide in the primaries, but he has been quite savvy at times and to me more likable. I won't panic over his campaign yet.

You are willfully ignoring the fact that almost all conventions get a bounce. Kerry got a bounce which put him ahead. Bush got a bounce which put him ahead. Obama got a bounce. Now McCain's getting a bounce.

The overwhelming predictors for who will win this election all point to Obama.

Look who's been ahead for the majority of this time.

That's the person who almost always wins the election.

But I suspect you're not looking for logic. You're looking for emotional reassurance. Why not take positive action instead?

Oh, brother. The trend lines that I've been following for awhile have been all in Obama's favor. ALL candidates get a bounce after their convention! If all McLame gets is a few point ahead for his bounce, it's really not that much. It was expected, get a set, will ya?

Don't you remember when Hillary Clinton was ahead by (i think) 20 points in the primaries, at

the beginning? The brief infatuation with Palin by superficial terminally uninspired Republican

voters will wither in time, imo.

I convinced two wavering friends to vote for him as well. I have sent five $20 contributions to him so far, most recently during the RNC, despite having almost no income at the present time (corporate downsizing). I talk him up at every opportunity.

Still, I'm a realist. It's my curse.

When the election is over, Gallup will go back to working almost exclusively for global corps until the next big election. They have zero to do with the original Gallup organization. Gallup literally sold out years ago.

If you had said this shows McCain's high water mark, you'd have been right.

Just look at this website instead.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

... the left and the media have been distracted by all of this, and this has taken attention away from Obama himself. He needs to get out and start making his case all over again.

This shit is serious - his campaign needs to realize that.

The only polls we need to care about are the state-by-state numbers and electoral vote count. The RW loves to demoralize their opposition with these bogus polls.

We need to wait and see some new swing state polls to see if this matters.

Gallup is a republican organization, and their methodology is so outdated. Please spare us the hand-wringing. Odd how low post number folks seems to be the most concerned??

a great poll. But then when it shows McCain ahead suddenly it's bogus poll. Last week people at DU were singing the praises of Gallup when they showed Obama up by eight points.

Let's get a grip people. This is going to be a close hard fought election and we have got to work our butts off for the Obama ticket. Trashing the polls when we don't like what the polls say is not going to get us anywhere.

They have more PhDs in Statistics running around their facility in Princeton than all their competitors put together...

They are the largest polling organization in the world and therefore can bring enormous resources to any endeavor...

That doesn't mean they are without flaws...

But, nailing every presidential election in the past seventy or so with one miss (48) gives them a modicum of credibility...

And we can check their poll by comparing it to others of the same vintage and they seem to be in accord...

Obama is running shitty, weak, reactive, naive campaign.

I should have supported Hillary.

All this doom over one poll???

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_update/

Check all these latest polls out, they look good to me. :)

We need every available kick in the pants to get us moving.

Let this fire us up.

If you're near a state-in-play...


GET OUT THERE AND START CANVASSING!!!!!

He actually had a really good day after Lieberman's speech. Today's scores are Thursday, Friday, and Saturday night polling. His Thursday numbers after Palin's speech were pretty good, so those numbers are going to roll off tomorrow. Expect McCain's lead to grow tomorrow, too. I think Monday's numbers will be his high water mark.

Wait til midweek. This is a statistical expectation. Midweek will give a hint if there's any 'concern' to be had.

Hopefully they will regain their senses and vett this woman and demand to ask some questions. She has a very checkered past that most voters are not aware of. I suspect the dirt will begin to fly next week and these numbers will turn around. The biggie will be the "abuse of power" investigation to be released in October. That could be a killer.

Comes down to preventing theft and GOTV, fighting the debates' afterstory surely to be pro-McPalin, and fighting back when people are watching. The McPalin team will start looking more tired and scary, even without media helping. However much they've been teasingly critical to McPalin these last few days.

There is confusion, even in the media, if they want to support theocracy over the neo-cons, for our same fearful reasons.

It's a poll that went for three days.

These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.

Tomorrow's report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted after the conclusion of the convention. Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing candidate support in the last poll done entirely before a party's presidential nominating convention begins with the first polling conducted entirely after its conclusion.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx

They are basicly saying that tomorrows will likely be more conclusive.

I know I'm biased and I've said this multiple times, but all Obama needs is Colorado. The Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado will put us at 273. Iowa is looking very good and we're so far ahead in NM that the McCain camp can't even see us. The only Kerry state that looks vulnerable is New Hampshire, so if we concentrate on NH and Colorado we can win. Believe me, McCain is eminently beatable in Colorado.

Even if these polls are an accurate reflection of voter sentiment, it would still be very possible for us to win the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.

The Electoral College follows the popular vote, albeit imperfectly, as we have learned to our peril...States don't vote in isolation...It's hard to see either candidate lose the popular vote by three percentage points and win the election...

Ohio. Virginia, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina all look unlikely.

Our best shot at winning is the Michigan/Colorado combination.

Why? That state is too close to call right now, yet you have it unlikely?

Neither are Virginia and Nevada IMO. :shrug:

When all is said and done, it may only strengthen states he is strong in.

... had Mondale beating Reagan 48-46. Mondale got that bounce because (1) he had a good convention and (2) he had shaken up the political world by picking a female running mate (Ferraro).

But the fundamentals of the race hadn't changed. All real indicators (the economy, the world situation) continued to favor Reagan. The convention buzz soon faded and the novelty of a woman candidate wore off. Then Mondale was back to trailing Reagan by quite a lot. And in November he got blown out of the water.

McCain had a good convention and he shook up the political world with his female running mate. But the fundamentals (jobs and economic insecurity, the housing crisis, Iraq and the strain on the military) have not changed. This is still a Democratic year. We can't let stuff like a daily tracking poll get us down. Before November 4, there will be 50+ more of these.

We just need to stay focused on what's important (jobs, housing and stock markets, healthcare, Iraq) and not get too obsessive about what's not (Palin).

but we still react the same way. Next week will be rough but we shouldn't lose our heads. This week should inspire us to work harder than ever in terms of making sure we are not discouraged and will continue working hard for the democratic ticket.

Probably beat the hell out of both Mondale and Ferraro in the press and with an advertising blitz?

Anyone remember?

"Morning in America" -- that was his theme. The severe negative Republican tactics with which we're all familiar are more a product of the Bush family (George Sr. and Lee Atwater, George Jr. and Karl Rove).

Reagan didn't tear Mondale down. He didn't need to. And Ferraro self-destructed on her own (husband's financial dealings, her own lack of experience).

Thank you.

Reagan was also running for re-election, it was not an open race.

have their convention that year after the repubs? I am always curious about a bounce a candidate gets when his party goes second with the convention...maybe the bounce lasts longer because the other guys already had his convention...

This is a weird year because the conventions were back-to-back. Still, conventions aren't the real factors in elections. We speak of convention "bounces" because what goes up almost surely comes back down.

...Mondale's "bounce" had already faded away, and Reagan was comfortably ahead, a couple of weeks before the G.O.P. convention.

Fight! Fight! Fight!

ALL that matters.

www.fivethirtyeight.com

pollster.com

You know you're in for a tough campaign when your convention bounce fails to lift you out of the margin of error.

to these things, good or bad?

I mean, when Obama's numbers are good, that's fine, but I don't bank on it or anything.

When they're bad, that's not fine, but I don't bank on it or anything.

And it's just more of a gut feeling that the only poll that matters are the election returns on election day. But do I have any actual basis for this feeling? Any statisticians out there agree?

I just think making yourself crazy over these things is unnecessary.

If the election were help today maybe Obama would win, maybe McCain would win. That I do not know.

But I know that McCain is doing better today than he was a week ago.

Tracking polls do show directional movement because they use the same methodology every day. So the useful part isn't so much the absolute numbers as the week to week movements up and down.

I do not think McCain will win because just he is leading today. But it is information about how effective or ineffective the RNC was, and that's of interest.

Praised Obama, trashed McCain. And, yes, identified myself as supporting Hillary in the primaries but will definitely vote for Obama in November.

The problem is Palin generated excitement and Biden didnt. I wish Webb or Richardson had been selected or Jack Reed.

Shut up and Work Harder.

Start your worrying when we're behind in places like Michigan and PA.

I have been lurking here for about a month but I see so much misinformation on polling that I thought I would throw my $0.02 in. I am a progressive independent. I voted for Reagan (twice), Clinton (twice), Bush (I feel he isn't even a Republican anymore, certainly not a true REP like Reagan), Kerry in 2004. I have a masters in Mathematics from Virginia Tech. I do statistical analysis work as a consultant for oil & gas exploration companies. In my younger years I did some work for polling company (local - small time).

I see a lot the following kinds of questions/comments What about cellphones? Polls on Weekend are low for Obama because young people are out on weekend? I think this poll is a "fluke" what if they randomly got "too many Republicans".

Some people have a misconception of HOW polling works. When you see a poll that says "based on random sample of 3000 Registered Voters" it DOES NOT mean they just called 3000 random people added the numbers up an published a poll.

The voting "population" is 120 million voters. To get a random sample with any degree of certainty (95%+) and a useful margin of error (+/-4%) for a population that big would require a MASSIVE SURVEY. My quick calc (using a 50/50 probability) shows a required minimum sample size of 48,680 would be required.

So if you sampled 48.680 registered voters EVERY DAY you could just randomly call them up.... but that is very expensive and very time consuming. So how do they get 4% MOE with only 3000 voters? Weighting.

The pollster will take census data (% by race, % by gender, % by marital status) to determine a MODEL for the US.
i.e 40% is married, 20% is 18-25, 23% is hispanic, etc.

The pollster also needs to know PARTY REGISTRATION as that has huge (for obvious reasons) impact on voting. Usually the pollster will do a larger (50K-100K) less frequent survey to determine the current party registration.

According to Rasmussen larger registration survey (which is updated monthly) the US is about 40% Dems, 32% REP, 28% Ind/Unaffiliated. They gets this by doing a large (50K people) survey once a month. The Dems have picked up a huge % of voting block since 2004. Another way to look at it is if EVERY DEM voted Obama and EVERY REP voted McCain and the INDY split 50/50 the Obama would win in landslide 54/46. Or another way is if each party votes for their party's candidate McCain needs to take 65% of Independent vote to win! This is why GOTV is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO important. If DEMS lose (other than cheating) it will be because either indys broke massively for McCain (unlikely) or a higher % of registered REP actually vote.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?
The raw data is recorded but so is identifying population data.
Before the actual survey the person being polled will be asked a series of questions
How do you describe your race?
Are you registered to vote?
What party are you registered as?
What is your age range? <18-25, 26-35, 36-45, 46-55, etc>
What is your marital status?

So they get the raw data but the raw data is USELESS. It only tells you "out of 3000 people: x like McCain and 300-x like Obama". It DOES NOT TELL YOU ANYTHING ABOUT HOW THE COUNTRY THINKS AS A WHOLE. It likely has too many of one group, not enough of another group etc.

The raw data is then compared to census & registration data (all my # are made up, just used as an example)
Say in the survey only 12% of people polled are "Black" but 20% of Registered Voters are black, the "black subpopulation" (this is a statistical term) is UNDERWEIGHTED. So the results of the Black people who were polled is boosted 20%/12%. Each black person polled is "worth" 1.666 votes.

Same thing happens when a sub-pop is OVERWEIGHTED. Say Whites make up 60% of population but in the survey they are 80%. The "value" of each "white vote" is reduced (60/80=0.75). One White vote for McCain is equal to 0.75 votes, but one Black vote for McCain is worth 1.66 votes.

This happens for each category . The final result is a cross product of all the weighted sub-pops.

So in summary the following happens
1) Calls made collecting both SURVEY DATA & POPULATION DATA.
2) Each subpop is calculated & compared against expected results.
3) Each sub-pop is either boosted or reduced to match national average
4) All sub-pop are cross producted to get final result.

Why it doesn't matter if call is late at night, on weekend, only to land lines, etc.
Because any pop that is underweighted will be boosted to reflect national average.
If you call only landlines then youth vote will be undercounted substantially. Let's say 18-25 make up 15% of registered voters. Likely you will only get 240 out of 3000 (8%). Whatever their breakdown is "say 70%/30% for Obama" will be extrpolated for the entire youth (18-25) population.

can effect their choices on those days. This is a reason i've heard for why weekend polling can sometimes be different than polling during the work week. Issues might take precedent over more superficial reasons to vote for a person if you've just got off a hard day at work and you get a bill in the mail that you're struggling to pay for. On the weekend you might be in a mood where you go for a Sarah Palin because you liked her speech, but on Tuesday you might go for Obama because he has better programs and is offering you a tax cut. I'm not calling this poll bogus, i'm just saying that this an argument that i've heard and that might hold some truth.

Thanks for all that info though, it was informative. You also made me realize how important it is that we don't let some of these states purge voter registrations like i'm hearing some are doing.

it was excellent and I worry not enough people will read it.

You or anyone else has my permission to copy it.
I just joined and the forum won't let me start a new post yet. Not sure how much time/posts you need before you can do it.

Gallup, for example, has been notoriously right leaning for the past several years. While it was once a reputable polling firm, that time has long since past. The only thing that remains of the original Gallup organization is the name, used as a brand name.

Gallup makes its money from the same multi national corps that run GOP politics in America. It does so in partnerships it sets up with such companies. The main revenues for Gallup come from literally being in bed with those huge companies.

Gallup serves those business interests. USA Today is a rightwing publication, and its "news" reflects that. The survey they commission from Gallup is always far to the right of other polls, even those of Gallup for their daily polling. Why? Because USA Today serves a largely Republican market. It is SALES.

Experience has taught me that most of the polling firms have biases, and those biases are reflected in the way they construct their models. Their JOB is to help SHAPE opinion, not to report it.

Rasmussen is clearly a GOP tool, and when push comes to shove, he will produce a poll that helps the GOP.

Assuming legitimacy of any of the polling groups is an unwarranted assumption.

face and deal with challenges objectively.

You're not here to support Obama, you're here to take shots at him.

This should be a no brainer for the Obama camp. They should come out with a strong populist message and paint McCain as a wealthy elitist republican and Palin as a puppet for big Oil.

and called out a negative bounce for the GOP. It didn't happen but doesn't mean the seeds of why I believed that aren't sewn.

Instead of deflated, you always get right back up. You never quit and you grant no quarter. Panic will neither lend strength nor focus and not yet has anyone quit their way to victory. They hit you in the mouth, you blow up their house and piss on the ashes. They knock you down you on the ground then you put them under it.

It's not about any politician, it's about us. Hit their Borg Collective hard, separate every rational and wanna be rational person at odds with the nutcases. Drive them into a blood lust with their culture war. Tie McCain/Palin to who they represent. Bush has always been a easy symbol.

Only the stupid and evil are with the Republicans and those who pull their strings. Attack them in real life. Stir their evil and simple reactions.

I don't know but it's possible to make them isolate themselves by some method. It's a strong part of their nature.

It's that simple. The Obama camp needs to define their opponents and this is the simplest and most effective way to do it. Obama should define himself as the Champion of the people and McCain/Palin as the champion of big oil.

More reason to donate to the Obama campaign. Even if you can only spare $5 please donate!