Let's pack it in...

Obviously it's over.

:eyes:

Sometimes I wonder if some on here have ever followed a presidential election before or if this is their first one. If it is their first, I can understand the negative posts, because they clearly aren't familiar with how the election cycle goes. However, I'm guessing many aren't new to this entire thing and just refuse to accept that this race will pretty much follow the cycle of every modern election in American history.

I don't want to be a professor of political science here and give you a refresher course in American history, so I won't. But I think most of you failed to realize McCain would see a bounce. I http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=6949151">said as much Friday and many refused to believe it. For whatever reason, they couldn't accept that McCain would see the same type of bounce every other presidential candidate has seen over the years. Why, I do not know, but it was clear to me he was seeing a bounce and that it would be enough to give him a lead.

The problem with DU is that many people feel the world should work according to how they see things. Ok, it isn't just a problem with DU, but every freaking message board on the planet. We get settled into the idea that everything outside, in the real world, is just like it is here. But it isn't. Yes, we hated John McCain's speech, but it was emotional to many people. Regardless of what you think of it, McCain's POW story plays well across this country because many Americans do see it as a sign of heroics. Yeah, there are double standards and yes, Americans should look past that and toward the issues, but a convention is less about the issues and more about creating a rallying cry for not only the base, but all of America.

McCain did that. Obama tried to do it, but his speech was undercut by three things:

1. McCain announced his VP the day after, which we all knew would happen.

2. Hurricane Gustav. I know many thought it would hurt McCain, but it left less news cycle for Obama's speech. By Saturday, the news was dominated by Palin and Gustav, with Obama's speech barely making a dent. Had there been no hurricane, there is a good possibility more attention would have been played to the speech.

3. The GOP Convention. This probably hurt more than anything, because not only did it kill Obama's bounce, it took the speech completely out of the news. Unlike Kerry and Gore and Clinton and every recent Democratic candidate, none ever had their convention proceed the Republicans by a week. SO while Obama received a healthy bump, there was a window of only three days between the end of the Democratic Convention and the start of the Republican Convention. Add in the first two problems and it left Obama will minimal gain outside of what he received during the week of the convention.

McCain, however, has it perfectly set. The news cycle is still discussing the Republican Convention because no major political or domestic stories have happened since he gave his speech Thursday. That gives him a longer chance to build the buzz, which Obama could not do. Is that Obama's fault? No. Is it McCain's campaign doing something right? No. It's just luck. There is a reason why the incumbent party holds their convention last and it's because that provides them a better chance to sustain the convention bounce. McCain didn't have to face news dominated by Obama choosing Biden as his VP, a major hurricane closing in on the country and the start of the Democratic Convention. Had he, this race would probably look a bit different right now than it does today.

Of course, what we need to realize is that rarely is a convention bounce lasting. That is why they call them a bounce, because what goes up, must come down. Obama's bounce didn't last and it's unlikely McCain's lasts as well. If McCain continues to build this lead and is up by 7+ points by the end of next week, then I will say we are in trouble. But I don't expect that to happen. Hell, the reason I knew McCain would take the lead is because the estimation of Gallup's daily breakdown had Obama up +6 on Thursday, probably the last day he was leading in the polls. Well since it's a three day rolling average, Thursday just fell off, which provided McCain the chance to take the lead.

Now we'll just have to wait and see what happens with McCain's numbers. He probably had a really good night Friday and a good night Saturday, which means you shouldn't be shocked if he expands his lead tomorrow, too. But I doubt it will sustain itself, as I expect Obama to start winning the daily polls starting next week and once McCain's huge gains drop off, the race becomes what it was prior to the convention, Obama with a slight lead.

We live in upstate SC. Before hurricane Hugo came through here about 20 years ago, weathermen never really paid all that much attention to hurricanes other than to talk about their effect on the coast. But Hugo barreled through Charleston and arrived in Charlotte still packing hurricane force winds and caused more damage here than anywhere else. In places the power was out for three weeks, people died...it was a disaster. After that, every single hurricane was predicted to MAYBE come here. Nobody wanted to miss their chance of being able to say, "I was the first one to predict the disaster."

This election is sort of the same thing, with the '04 election being our Hugo. A lot of people on the DU are so busy trying to be the first ones to predict the disaster, they aren't fighting for the victory. I guess it's just human nature.

It's also easier to tear down then to build up. I've been guilty of it, like everyone I suppose. I'm a cynical bastard, but I recognize that's it's more constructive, generally, to be positive then to be negative.

We need to stop panicking at every poll and just wait until after the debates to see where we are at and if there should really be reason to start worrying. In the meantime we need to be focusing on more important things like making sure we are writing letters and getting people to vote. If not that getting educated on voter suppression and what we can do about it.

the American President. It's about the electoral votes, folks. Obama has been ahead in those consistently.

And stop panicking every five minutes.

Focus. Donate. Volunteer. Vote.

I accept that they ran a good convention that changed the campaign, but why do we do this to ourselves every four years?

I am having switfboat nightmares.

...the party currently holding the presidency goes second.

I'm assuming this started because the "challenging" party (like us this year) felt they needed extra time to let their candidate become more fully known by the American people, whereas the party in power would be better-known at the outset.

So who does IKE hurt?

:thumbsup:

And it's called a BOUNCE because it bounces. What goes up, must come down.

What is so difficult about that concept?

Even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it. Not that I hate kitties, I hasten to add! I have three.

until McMooseMuffins holds a sustained +4 or 5 lead. Obama's campaign knows what they're doing and I still fully expect them to pull it out.

I doubt it'll stop the hand-wringing around here, only because nothing seems to stop the hand-wringing around here.

Still. Good post.

- as

McCain appeared to have won Gallup by 2 on Friday and 8 yesterday (2-day average: McCain up by 5).

McCain appeared to have lost Rasumssen by 2 on Friday and won by 4 yesterday (2-day average: McCain up by 1).

What this means is that tomorrow's results, absent a very good Obama day in today's results, will likely show an increasing McCain lead, and be the cause for lots of sky-is-falling doomsayers here in Grieving Depression: PalinPalinPalin General Discussion: Politics.

What needs to be kept in mind (and people should really look at Nate's latest post about convention bounces over at FiveThirtyEight.com) is that, historically, convention bounces usually peak around 48 hours after the convention ends. That means the G.O.P. peak would be yesterday, and showing up in today's results.

Another interesting point from Nate's article (and one I wouldn't have expected) is that, barring a major event that changes the entire course of the campaign, the last convention bounce won't actually decay and return to a steady state for up to a month afterward. That isn't what I'd expect -- I would think poll numbers would return to normal following a week or so. I'll defer to Nate in his analysis. But, in any event, no one should be panicking until the "peak bounce" days (yesterday and possibly today, depending on what hour polling is conducted) cycle out of the surveys. That would mean in the results to be released Thursday -- although, if McCain's lead keeps growing every day through Wednesday, it would be cause for some concern. But I really don't expect that to happen.

by the hapless nature of the Obama campaign, who can't even bring themselves to challenge John McCain's credibility.

that's what I say. :D

But just keep reminding yourself: It's almost certainly temporary.

Agonizing and frustrating. Tempers will flare and worry will boil. I hope it doesn't lead to fighting with each other.