Bad News: McCain up 10, 54-44 (LV), 50-46 (RV) (Gallup/USA Today)

Don't shoot the messenger:



http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm

obama was up 7- now mac is up 10. that's an 17 point bounce!?

wtf.

that's not how you measure a bounce. take the number from before both conventions as your baseline.

Makes this an 8-10 point bounce.

This has nothing to do with the swing states & is just red states getting redder so chill out everyone.

.

Do I believe that the majority of voters want to see a McLame/Failin presidency? Nope, I sure don't. But, if you're going to steal an election, the first thing you have to do is make it APPEAR close.

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McCain chose a social conservative and energized his base, or that part of his base who were going to sit out this dance...theological and social conservatives.

So...yes. McCain got a polling shift in his favor combined with a convention bump. Do you care if he wins ID or UT or AL with 70% of the vote as opposed to 60%?

I sure don't.

This election is about MI, CO, NM, NH and IA. Until I hear we're no longer winning in these places, I'm going assume that we are. (We work from the premise that the places that were safely Obama are still Obama, if less dominantly.)

It might also hinge on VA, OH, ND, MT, NV, NC. Can I say that I feel really good about our ability to win at-least one of those? (We don't need to win any of them by my calculus.)

National Polls mean zero. State polls and EC maps are where it's at. Look at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com or http://www.electoral-vote.com/ and tell me that the sky is falling.

I haven't seen any state polls taken since before the conventions started.

Nonsense on the face of it.

see who's ahead-was there a 'Palin bounce'?" :eyes:

things going against him, media, race, stupidity, religious freaks, wedge issues.

Maybe you want to tell me the polls are all lying.

I'm pissed that the people on this board can't recognize when things are turning more than anything else. And then I get blasted for having a bad analysis. Bah.

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will you apologize to anyone?

and if we don't start attacking and making our case at every level then we will lose. Its still early, but certain tactics I see being espoused like "stick to the issues" and "we don't want to go there" are STUPID when we are fighting to keep this country solvent and out of basket case territory.

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He waited too long to react and he let McCain define Palin as the best thing ever.

I wonder if Obama's team is still worried how it may look if they attack Palin...the election is slipping away from them....

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But of course you knew that. Thanks for playing.

but at this point what does handwringing buy you?

We are going to win this thing but we can never relent.

Fight to death and grant no quarter.

That is what I find frustrating. They are discouraging the dissemination of information that we can use to fight Palin!

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Specifically, now. What action should people undertake as a result of your advice?

regardless of if it is nasty or not. You never know what will turn a person you are trying to convince. I'm not saying to encourage things we know are not true, but we need to know these people who want to run our country inside and out.

And personal lives are the true windows into what a person believes. Anyone can say whatever they want, but when you look at how they live that is the only truth there is.

We cannot make anything out of bounds. That is what makes me pissed off...people who say "we're too good for that". BAH!

Are designed to tell the people on this board that they need as much information as possible? Wow. Mission accomplished.

How that changes the strategy of the actual campaign will remain, of course, a giant fucking mystery for the ages, but i guess your very safe purpose of advising everyone that they should be informed is really tight and unassailable.

is suicide.

So, basically, all your posts are encouraging ordinary people to take a different tack than the campaign itself? Is that right?

But I'm saying that WE don't have to be that way. Maybe we can go places that he can't, but there are some here saying "Obama doesn't want us to talk about her personal life". Bah.

Or if we talk about Palin's governance of Wasilla or Alaska its all "We are supposed to be talking about McCain, not Palin".

UGH! She is the story now. We need to be taking her down with everyone we know.

on community organizers? Obama mentioned it at a press conference with a fierce rebuttal. Where were the TV ads attacking McCain and Palin on being too elitist about ordinary Americans? Where were the surrogates? That was a gift-wrapped present for us to attack.

of messaging. He is getting lost in all this Palin coverage.

They can be easily skewed depending on how the question is asked.

Back in early August, every poll had Obama up 5 and Gallup had McCain leading Obama 50-45 among likely voters.

Utah, Wyoming etc. Those states were going red anyway.

Thus no effect.

Wake up folks.

We gotta get the message out. Mobilize our friends in the media.

Obama get back on message, please.

uh, we're Democrats. We don't have any.

Welcome to DU and chill out.

Just the reds getting redder with the addition of a fundy to the ticket. Absolutely zero to worry about.

Woo fucking hoo.

Okay. Once again. Let's all calm down. The McCain camp has dominated coverage the past few days and a convention bounce is normal. I agree the Obama camp needs to stay aggressive but let's wait and see how the numbers look in a week or two.

Sometimes, I really hate election season.

Nice avatar, BTW. :toast:

Gallup is notorious for strange partisan ratio in the samples. Could it be that Republicans were more ready to answer this polls than Democrat right after their convention?

Gallup today has another poll with McCain up 3 points, so what is it, 10 or 3? http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx

McCain is up 3 in the daily tracking poll that Gallup does. This is a NEW UsaToday/Gallup poll, which shows a +10 in likely voters. They are separate polls.

Other than that Diego/FD poll, Obama is pretty much tied or down now. That is the first time I have seen this during the last few months.

McCain always got close, but Obama stayed ahead.

Time for some hard hitting commercials Obama. Wake up folks. There is reason to be worried. I am .

vote in 2004 and 2006. Given than a large part of Obama's appeal is to new voters, the LV model does NOT capture them. (and, as I said, Gallup has 2 polls with two different results, which probably should cast some doubts on one of them).

This said, it is probable that we are where we were before the Conventions, about tied. If anybody thinks the election is won, they are stupid, but hand wringing does not help either.

because IF this is correct, the American people are far dumber than anyone could have imagined! I know the Reps are masters of getting the gullible to vote against their own economic interests, but these results are beyond the pale.

From the link:

"McCain has narrowed Obama's wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate's top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he's favored by 3."

I don't use profanity often but will you all show some balls.
Take a few Xanax until Wednesday when this "convention bounce" will be over and the race will once again be tied. Use some common sense-most polls are showing a bounce of 2-4 point for McCainiac today.
A convention bounce is just that, a bounce. It's the start of September and there's 2 more months of campaigning to go. Take my word for it this race will either be tied or Obama will have a slight lead by next weekend

Kerry won in 2004 (or would have except for GOP election fraud).

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-09-06-poll_x.htm

And Bush has ugly old Cheney, not a shiny new beauty queen VP. So take a chill pill.

This same poll had Obama up +7 last week, and now down 10. That is a 17 point swing.

Pretty significant.

Obama has got to get his act together. Get back on offense.

I saw where Palin is going to campaign in swing states all week, instead of going back to Alaska. They are getting crowds to rival Obama's now.

I am getting worried.

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I call BS.

McCain did not get a 17 point bounce.

you don't know what you're talking about.

It'll be a little harder for them to play those games.


without Ohio, McCain is toast.

McCain's acceptance speech Thursday received lower ratings than the one Obama gave a week earlier: 15% called McCain's speech "excellent" compared with 35% for Obama.

in a state of despair

at least dems will win in the congressional contests

my hopes are fading for the prez election

remember that.

Nobody thought it would be easy, but defeatism is neither helpful nor warranted.

going against a national wave of ignorance and the controlled media. It's frustrating. :-(

McSame hasn't been running any particularly disparaging attacks, which in previous campaigns has caused this disparity. And McSame didn't give a particularly wonderful speech at all.

I suppose the media will say that it's Palin. It may be.

Obama still has a better ground game and his money is actually in his camp as opposed to McCain whose money is controlled by the RNC. He still has time to change his strategy but not too much time. Lets see what the other polls are saying.

He generated no excitement at all. Lets face it, we knew for days he was going to be the pick. He is solid as a rock, but i dont think he brings anything to the ticket. Since Palin was chosen the media has been all about her 24/7.

Once the public gets the low down on the real Palin and her opinions and limited ability things will settle back down. We need to make sure we don't give her anymore of our time except to call out her lies and we need to focus on McCain and the four more years of Bush that he brings to the White House.

IMO perhaps McCain is comparable to Gore at this point in 2000. Whether we like to admit it or not, Lieberman generated a lot of excitement and while Bush led through most of the summer, the Democratic Convention tightened the race.

I think people are trying too hard to compare this to either 2004 or 1992 and it's simply not comparable because there is no incumbent running. Like it or not, McCain is not Bush and while running against an unpopular incumbent party helps it's still not the same as running against an unpopular incumbent President.

...more indicative of a convention bounce than anything long-term.

As to the "likely voters" figure that will have some people jumping off cliffs: there are serious questions about USAToday/Gallup's model for likely voters. If you look back to the end of July, when virtually every other major poll gave Obama a five or so point lead, this particular poll was showing McCain up 50-44 among likely voters.

I'm not saying the Repugs aren't getting an expected convention bounce, but there have long been reasons to believe this particular poll, particularly in its LV numbers, is a serious outlier.

I'm highly suspect of their LV numbers. This election isn't going to be like 2004 or 2006.

Gallup point-in-time polls tend to go a bit overboard.

I'm not saying there's no concern, but it's still a long election season.

For anyone to open their mouths and say they plan to vote for McCain after the last eights years just makes me want to scream. What is wrong with people? The only hope I have is that if Obama is down then maybe people won't just sit around and do nothing, but we'll all get busy organizing, registering voters, knocking on doors and making phone calls. I'll be signing up to volunteer this week. God help us all if McCain/Palin win this thing.

And I can't wait to get on here on election night and say I told you so.

Even I'm discouraged tonight.

My advice - invest in guns and ammo. Electing these two might finally get us out from infront of our computers and into the streets.

If you think we are going to lose this election with the way things are right now, you are crazy. The debates will be the final straw for McSame and the Lipstick Puppy.

Things will settle down once people realize how unqualified and really unappealing Palin is to a majority of women and the economy again becomes the big issue. McCain and his little sidekick offer nothing but more of the same Bush years.

I know it's technically too soon to tell how this will play out but...


I look forward to the electoral map polls next week. That will give us a real indication of how the race is shaping up.

~

but I think the R's have the right idea in holding theirs later?

OMG where did this come from? I thought it was 3 today. 10?, 10??? What's the total "bounce" now 18???? Can't be right, we need all of the Palin women to become pregnant ASAP, LOL.

Decisions made in the heat of passion are usually the wrong ones...

I'm going to wait a week...If the lead doesn't subside I will be legitimately concerned...Anybody that isn't by then is a living in a parallel universe...

The state polls are what count and in those, things are very different and we are still in the right seat. There's no need to be alarmed.

McCain can fix the energy crisis with offshore drilling. Obama doesn't even want wind turbines because it might kill a bird.

McCain can fix the healthcare crisis with his stupid tax credits and Obama's plan to socialize medical care "won't work.

McCain will cut your taxes and Obama will raise them.

McCain is a war hero and Obama is a muslim.

Palin is a reformer and a breath of fresh air and not an unqualified, redneck partisan hack at all. Hell, she's more qualified that Obama. The only job he's ever had is a community organizer, whatever that means!

The Democrats are responsible for anything bad that has been said about Sarah Palin and Hillary is to blame for anything bad said about Obama

This campaign has been about as big of a disaster as it could have been.

McCain was up by 3 points today. That meant (by my estimates, based on the movement of the numbers each day) that they were tied on Thursday (before McCain's speech) and McCain led by 4 points the two days after his speech. So now the 0 has been replaced by another 4--as one would expect.

Obama had a lead of about one point (on average) heading into the Conventions. He lead by 7 points (on average) when the Democratic Convention was over. That's a six-point bounce. If McCain currently leads by 4 points then that is just a 5-point bounce from his pre-convention numbers. It just looks like a bigger bounce since Obama's didn't have a week to wear off following his convention, since the GOP went the following week.

In another week (Monday, 9/15) McCain's bounce will have worn off. At that point we will have a better sense of where the race stands. My guess is that it will be a dead heat amongst registered voters.

As for "likely voters"....I don't know what to make of that. This poll could just be an anamoly--we've seen plenty of those. The intensity seems to be on our side this year--look at how many Senate races we're favored in. Either way, a six-point discrepency between registered voters and likely voters seems to be a bit much.

Steve

immediately following the Democratic convention? The probably would have shown similar results in Obama's favor.

I'll listen.

I am not sure how to make the "quote box" but per the article:
In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

The Gallup poll released earlier today is Thurs - Sat.
This poll (Gallup/USA Today) is Fri-Sun. Likely USA Today just released it early.

I would ignore the LV #. On a normal year it is a "best guess" this year is too radical for LV to have any meaning.

However this does confirm that likely Monday's main Gallup daily tracking poll will be 50%-46%

One thing I noticed is the # of undecideds is dropping. This means which ever party pulls ahead will be in a good spot.
Before all one side had to do it convert undecided->decided. As undecided pool shrinks it will take the harder convers REP->DEM or DEM->REP to move the polls.


08/24 - 08/26: 45%-44% (11% undecided)
08/15 - 08/17: 46%-43% (11% undecided)

09/01 - 09/03: 49%-42% (9% undecided)
09/02 - 09/04: 48%-44% (8% undecided)
09/03 - 09/05: 47%-45% (8% undecided)
09/04 - 09/06: 45%-48% (7% undecided)
09/05 - 09/07: 46%-50% (4% undecided)

So:
1) Don't look @ LV #. RV is what matters. Nobody knows who is going to vote this year.
2) Looks like McCain is going to pick up another point tomorrow. So don't be surprised or worried when it happens. IMHO tomorrows Gallup will be 50%-46% or 51%-45% or 51%-46%.
3) The # of undecideds is getting smaller. How the hell can anyone be still undecided?

past two elections? IE. younger voters would not be accounted for?

Edited to say WELCOME! :hi: