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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:16 PM
Original message
A new USA/Gallup poll different from the Gallup tracking Obama down 50-46
I not worried I read this in the article, this number is not going to hold "McCain has narrowed Obama's wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate's top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he's favored by 3."

All this upswing is pure convention noise

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm
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Ioo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:16 PM
Response to Original message
1. again, this is just an RNC bounce... it is expected and will pass as Pailin is known more.
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:20 PM
Response to Original message
2. I hope this is the low point for this campaign
I'm getting a little down.
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NYC_SKP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:28 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. We had to know this was coming, a bump or change in the polls.
Not to worry, it was to be expected, now we need to continue to work and as the Palin idiocy settles down and America sees a few debates, and the Obama/Biden MoveOn serious ads start coming, we'll more than catch up, then win.

BTW, regarding the image in your sig, did you really mean to say "OBAMA BIDEN ADD ME"?

Or did you want to say "AND ME"?

Just wondering...



:hi:
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Thanks for the reality check
I'm feeling a little better after hiding all of the stupid P* threads (I refuse to even say her name any more).

I had to make it "ADD" or something similar due to "OBAMA/BIDEN" also tying together in the vertical (down) direction. I noticed that Obama's name had a "B" for the second letter which let me create the little crossword puzzle with thier names. Like crossword puzzles, the words you may want to use are not always possible :D
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NYC_SKP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:59 PM
Response to Reply #7
17. DOH!
Stupid me, I didn't see that...Clever.

I knew one of us was trippin'

These polls, let's not worry unless we see a straight 7-10 days that confirm these numbers as less than outliers.

And even then, we just need to keep on, work harder.

I, for one, do not want to have to leave the country...but probably would if we don't win.

:hiL
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:48 PM
Response to Reply #2
10. Cheer up, Hugh!
Bottom line is Obama Biden are going to win so this is just more bumps in the road.
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:51 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. I fully expect Obama to win - he is the better man by far!
I just didn't expect the Repukes to even put this much effort into a losing cause.
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carpetbagger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:24 PM
Response to Reply #12
18. Kerry and Gore were better men as well.
My hope is that the mud flies after the 11th, and I showed the man some financial love today, but I'm a bit pessimistic that they'll throw out the hard stuff. If people don't know she didn't sell her plane on EBay by election day, it's over.
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #18
20. McCain is a "she" and he sold a plane?
Heh - sorry, I just can't defocus from the real candidate - McCain.
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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:21 PM
Response to Original message
3. Matches up with their daily tracker. We'll see if this holds.
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DemFromMem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:32 PM
Response to Original message
5. Anyone remember how it went in '04?
Did either party find that its lead margin got better after the post-convention period? I know the conventions produce a lot of noise. Usually, we're the ones seeing it evaporate. I remember Mondale was up significantly after our convention in '84 and Dukakis also had a significant lead in '88.
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geek tragedy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:34 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Same pattern as 2004.
We took a 6-8 point lead after our convention, then the Republicans beat the shit out of Kerry at theirs, and they grabbed a ten point lead that wound up being five on election day.
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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:42 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. 2.4% on Election Day
With far better fundamentals for the Republicans.

I expect this to be close but for Obama to ultimately prevail.

Although I have to ask, who is the genius who scheduled the Democratic convention first?
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Kdillard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. I was under the impression that the incumbent party always went last.
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greatscott15 Donating Member (104 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:52 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. +10 LV is Huge
Sorry folks, but this is a much bigger bounce than Obama got. I think it is a net +17 for McCain the past week.

Things looked pretty good last Monday. We were up in all the polls 6-8 points. Gustav was overshadowing the repukes convention. Looked like our friends in the media were going to force Palin out of the race.

I thought we had this thing. Now I am not so sure. Fortunately we have 60 days until the election.

Hopefully Obama and Biden can wipe the floor during the debates.
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regnaD kciN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:57 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. Not when you consider it's USAToday/Gallup's model...
A little over a month ago, when every other major poll was showing Obama with a solid lead, this same poll had McCain leading 50-45 LV.

It's clear from other polls that the G.O.P. got its expected convention bounce, but there's every reason to consider USAToday/Gallup (particularly in its model for likely voters) to be a consistent outlier.
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Peacetrain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:29 PM
Response to Reply #16
19. Ah Yep
that is about the size of it. And it will even out within a week to 10 days..
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Mass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:51 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. The Incumbent party chooses last. At least, Dean decided that the convention would be late,
avoiding the financial problems that were created by McAuliffe's choice of an early convention (though Obama choosing to not use federal funding eliminated the problem).
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:53 PM
Response to Original message
14. DUMB Americans. We're going to be stuck with neocons. Hope we all can survive
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regnaD kciN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 08:54 PM
Response to Original message
15. Taken right in the expected "sweet spot" of the convention bounce...
I recommend reading this post at 538.com for an idea where the race is likely heading over the next few weeks.
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