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Here's what I take away from the USA Today/Gallup Poll

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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:14 PM
Original message
Here's what I take away from the USA Today/Gallup Poll
Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama

Obama is still favored:

McCain has narrowed Obama's wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate's top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he's favored by 3.


People are linking McCain to Bush:

The Republican's ties to President Bush remains a vulnerability. In the poll, 63% say they are concerned he would pursue policies too similar to those of the current president. Bush's approval rating is 33%.


Not too many people liked McCain's speech:

• McCain's acceptance speech Thursday received lower ratings than the one Obama gave a week earlier: 15% called McCain's speech "excellent" compared with 35% for Obama.


Democrats are still more enthusiastic:

• Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.


So my question is: Unless the poll oversampled Republicans, what's the bounce attributed to? Palin? Are we to believe Palin swayed Democrats and Independents?

Someone will likely look into the numbers, but I don't see McCain sustaining this "bounce."




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Kdillard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:17 PM
Response to Original message
1. We need to keep hammering on the economy and i agree i don't think this bounce will remain. Obama
has to continually make it clear he will lower taxes and we also need to be spreading that message. Also thanks for the positive outlook too much gloom today. We need to be focused on winning not everchanging polls.
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Mz Pip Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:18 PM
Response to Original message
2. The republicans
didn't even discuss the economy during their convention. So now Obama's lead is down to 3?

If McCain can win people over by not even talking about something, if it's all about I was a POW vote for me and that sways the electorate in his favor on everything else - well I just have no clue what is in the minds of people.

How many more jobs have to be lost, how many more people have to go bankrupt over health care expenses, how many more lives have to be lost in Iraq before people wake up?
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:21 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Excellent point. n/t
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okieinpain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 08:21 AM
Response to Reply #2
17. uh, people are very sentimental about the military right now.
so yeah mcnutts is going to play it up, and people are going to cut him some slack for it.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:18 PM
Response to Original message
3. Thanks for your view..
REc'd.
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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:21 PM
Response to Original message
5. I read it differently. Obama and Biden are going to have to become extremely tough in the next few
weeks.

The media is not going to address palin's lies or extreme positions, and Obama/Biden MUST, and they can't delay

The biggest concern I have is just maybe the country has shifted enough to agree with those positions that there should be no abortion, even in the case of rape, incest, and the life of the Mother

Maybe the country doesn't believe in civil unions for people, and maybe the country does want justices like scalia and thomas

The issues have NEVER been clearer.


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Triana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:27 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. The media wont' address her sorry Alaska record or McCain's US Senate record...
...or the fact that he voted with bu$h 95% of the time - OR anything regarding their stances on the ISSUES (unless it's the media just repeating the lies McCain/Palin spew).

It's up to US, and Obama/Biden to get the truth out there about their record and about the issues.
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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:31 PM
Response to Reply #8
14. I am right there with you, it will be up to us.
A perfect time to do it, is when palin is giving her suppossed question and answers with gibson. Right after that interview, Obama should buy airtime to expose her true record


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Aristus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:26 PM
Response to Original message
6. Isn't Obama still ahead in the EC?
This is where I'm holding out hope. All Obama has to do is pick up every state that went for Kerry in 2004, and one more. Won't collecting even a small state with three or four electoral votes put him over the top?

Ohio and Florida can suck it. All we need is one of the Dakotas...
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greatscott15 Donating Member (104 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:26 PM
Response to Original message
7. Here's my Take on the state of the race.
People are NOT linking McCain and Palin to Bush. These strategies and ads only work if their is some semblance of truth. Face it, Palin is not a Washington insider. Neither is McCain.

Obama needs a different strategy. Better articulation of his position. Be specific about the tax cuts.

Palin is overshadowing Obama. A lot of Obama's appeal was based on a public persona. The repukes have done a great job of telling the American people he is just another liberal politician.

So Obama needs to hit back with specific policy differences. Get off the Messiah thing. People want specifics. How is Obama/Biden going to help the average American.

Lets be honest, right now Obama is behind. But he can make it up. We still have time.


And get ready for more bad news. I am hearing there will be several new polls this week, and all will show McCain ahead.
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Triana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:30 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Obama HAS been doing all those things - where you been?
And what do you mean "These strategies and ads only work if their is some semblance of truth."

There is a LOT of truth in that. McCain has been in the Senate 26 years. He IS a Washington insider and he HAS voted with bu$h 95% of the time.

Hello?
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redstate_democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:30 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. You're too obvious.
Obama is kicking ass right now. This USA/Gallop poll oversamples Republicans and who knows, maybe oversamples certain zip codes. Obama will smash McCain in Nov.
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writes3000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. Yep, thanks. Time to add to that list of mine. nt
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Blue_Roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 08:31 AM
Response to Reply #7
18. Palin IS just like Bush--even worse...
her record (thin as it may be) speaks loud and clear. She's a fundie, far-right, oil sucking, machine.
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gordianot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:28 PM
Response to Original message
9. Obama hit the nail on the head today. Republicans think the people are stupid.
How many have voted against their own best interest over the years. McCain's anger is coming and we will see a melt down.
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Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:30 PM
Response to Original message
12. They are probably overpolling in Alabama and Utah to make it look like
more of a bounce.
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writes3000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-07-08 09:31 PM
Response to Original message
13. Which 1000 people did they poll? From what states? From what religious background?
Once you break it down, I suspect it will tell the tale.
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Vinnie From Indy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 08:19 AM
Response to Original message
16. LOL! USA TODAY et al are simply LYING
These polls by the same folks that have lied in the service of GW BUsh and the GOP for the last eight years.

It is vital that the "pollsters" do their job and keep this race close in order to attempt to steal it. They craft their polls to insure a desired outcome.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 09:45 AM
Response to Reply #16
21. The bounce on the economy is extremely suspect
The market dropped 350 points on the day McCain gave his speech and unemployment climb to a five-year high.

How is that's good news for "the fundamentals of the econonmy are sound" McBush?

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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 09:47 AM
Response to Reply #16
22. The bounce on the economy is extremely suspect
The market dropped 350 points on the day McCain gave his speech and unemployment climb to a five-year high.

How is that good news for "the fundamentals of the econonmy are sound" McBush?

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theothersnippywshrub Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 08:33 AM
Response to Original message
19. This bounce shows the Night of the Broken Glass Republicans coming home.
Palin re-energized those Night of the Broken Glass Republicans. The results for "likley voters" in this poll illustrates this most clearly when you consider Gallop's methodology for determining poll results for "likley voters."
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 08:52 AM
Response to Original message
20. Rove's Polls are right on schedule
There is no way in hell that Obama is down this far.

The fix is in ~ watch it happen - Obama UP then when there is one little signal that he is "UPpity" they bring it back to McCain.

They are playing big time games with us folks in order for them to steal it.

No way in hell that MCCant can be "winning" on the economy!
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