Do not...(repeat) DO Not go all "Chicken Little" over Gallup/USAToday Poll

Perky

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Sun Sep-07-08 09:44 PM
Original message

Do not...(repeat) DO Not go all "Chicken Little" over Gallup/USAToday Poll

It is registered votere not Likely voters and it completly belies the Electoral Landscape.

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Name removed

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Sun Sep-07-08 09:48 PM
Response to Original message

1. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

last_texas_dem

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Sun Sep-07-08 09:54 PM
Response to Reply #1

7. Yeah, that worked so well in 2000...

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Webster Green

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Sun Sep-07-08 10:03 PM
Response to Reply #1

11. You may not be here long..

I believe your post violates the rules of this board.

:smoke:

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Captain Hilts

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Sun Sep-07-08 09:49 PM
Response to Original message

2. Correct. Likely Voters is usually more accurate. nt

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regnaD kciN

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Sun Sep-07-08 09:53 PM
Response to Reply #2

5. But not in USAToday/Gallup's case...

Their LV model is seriously FUBAR. At the end of July, with Obama up by five points or so in other major polls, U/G had McCain leading 50-45 among LVs. It was commented on at the time that they had big problems with their model.

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Captain Hilts

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Sun Sep-07-08 10:01 PM
Response to Reply #5

9. They are not rigorous about balancing their partisan breakdown....

That's why they had the 16 pt. swings in 2000.

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chknltl

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Sun Sep-07-08 09:51 PM
Response to Original message

3. What Perky said!

I am chknltl and I approved of this response.

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elocs

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Sun Sep-07-08 09:52 PM
Response to Original message

4. And again, national polls mean little when it is a 50 state election. n/t

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BrklynLiberal

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Sun Sep-07-08 09:53 PM
Response to Original message

6. This chart has Obama only 10 away from Electoral College victory..

Edited on Sun Sep-07-08 09:56 PM by BrklynLiberal

http://www.pollster.com/

and there is this chart...

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

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dennis4868

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Sun Sep-07-08 09:57 PM
Response to Reply #6

8. That is based on outdated...

state polls.

Stae polls eventually caych up to the national polls...McCain will probably have an elctoral college lead very soon.

Hey Obama...take the fucking gloves already and fight!!!

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BlooInBloo

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Sun Sep-07-08 10:02 PM
Response to Original message

10. DUers are definitely not the people I'd want to have my back....

They run screaming like maniacal little girls at the first sign of rough water.

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Perky

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Mon Sep-08-08 08:18 AM
Response to Original message

12. kick

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