Reagan was behind Carter. Kennedy was behind Nixon...

And Truman was behind Dewey (although I'm hesitant to cite that one because when a campaign invokes "Dewey Defeats Truman" you know it's over).

It's never fun to see bad poll numbers. But plenty of election day winners have stretches -- even in the fall! -- of bad polling.

Kennedy was behind Nixon until the debates.

Reagan traded the lead back and forth with Carter up until the one debate that year -- a week before the election. Even many pre-election polls didn't quite pick up the Reagan landslide because it occurred over the course of one weekend.

Gore trailed Bush after the debates right up until Election Day, yet he came back to win the popular vote and should have won the electoral vote.

Moreover, for everyone wondering why we're not way ahead, consider the following reasons:

(1) McCain is not Bush -- I'm not saying he isn't like Bush. Nor am I saying that McCain doesn't represent more of the same. My point is just that John McCain is not the same person as George W. Bush and that matters to a lot of voters. Even when an incumbent party is unpopular, open seat races are often close; many voters are usually willing to give a different person a chance, even if they're from the same party as the unpopular incumbent. Also, important is point number two...

(2) McCain is one of the most popular, high-profile politicians in the country -- McCain is someone the American public is very familiar with. They have a good impression of him because of his earlier in-fights with the Bush Administration. I think the Obama campaign has not done a good enough job changing perceptions of him, but they're also running into some natural limits. It's difficult to change impressions of someone people feel they know so well. And Obama's favorables are high too -- both have favorability ratings in the high-50s/low-60s, which helps explain a lot of the volatility and the undecideds.

(3) Hurricane Palin -- Palin is a huge wild card. Immediately after she was picked she looked like a disaster, and personally, I still think she is one. Certainly, she's an absurd choice as a governing partner and a potential president. But the right loves her, low-information voters seem to like her (remember many people DON'T vote on issues but personality) and she's swallowed all the press right now.

(4) Race -- Most states haven't even elected an African-American to statewide office. Lingering racism and prejudice are going to depress Obama's numbers a bit, though the effect will vary state-by-state.

Put all that together and it's the anatomy of a close race. Calm down, donate, and volunteer. Some hand-wringing will be justified if these numbers don't budge in, say, two weeks. Even then though, the final result can be unpredictable.

So STOP panicking.

To paraphrase A.A.Milne..."We are braver than we believe, and stronger than we seem, and smarter than THEY think." Keep the faith.