Freak Out in 5...4...3...2...

One!



link: http://www.gallup.com/poll/110107/Republicans-Enthusiasm-Jumps-After-Convention.aspx

:eyes:

That's actually damned good!

They were likely "moved" by his "I was a POW" story.

on edit: Not only that but 101% of voters have determined a choice. :wow: Very unlikely.

I am so sick of the ignorant, hate-filled, and racists dictating our politics.

You are correct when you say the polls are worthless, they are not good predictors on who will win in November.

BUT! But, when the republicons keep the polls close and steal the election in November, they have the polls to fall back on as perception. And remember, perception is everything in politics and truth means nothing.

I have absolute faith that the shine will wear off. Perhaps sooner than expected.

In the meantime, the economy is tanking, the banks are failing, gas prices are practically unaffordable and the jobless rate is the highest that it's been in 5 years. People are worried on a very personal level and Johnny McSame is offering four more years of the administration that got us in the mess. That is the public perception the MSM fails to mention.

Because the polls only use land lines, who has more land lines, older people, who represent a larger percentage of republicans, older people and a smaller demographic of independents who have land lines(a majority of younger people have cells)

That has changed dramatically since 2004 but they are using the same metric to figure polls

A July study from PEW thinks not so much - http://pewresearch.org/pubs/901/cell-phones-polling-election-2008

However I think the PEW study fails to factor in those people who have landlines but also have caller ID, personalized rings, call forwarding and answering machines. For instance, I have misses two calls from Gallup because they didn't leave a message and I thought they were yet another telemarketer bugging me. In other words, I think a lot of people with landlines still don't pick up the phone when the polling folks call.

Many older people do not have extended features like caller ID

And the pew research was a small sampling and is even OUTDATED already over 5 million cells have been added in the major carriers in the 4 months of this summer alone. Thats not new phones to existing users thats 5 million NEW cell users.

Not everyone is going to be cell only but it should be noted that 5 million is about 7 percent of all people expected to vote in november

I know too many people that never ever use their landlines. And I won't argue with your numbers on new cell users either. I'm just putting the PEW data in there cause I like to appear like I know what I'm talking about. :)

If I get my druthers today, I'm going to call the Texas Dem office and see what's up with that. We have a real, actual chance for Obama to take Texas this year and I would hate like hell to have it slip away just because of some late filings.

Don't think about the DU voter who was always Democratic or informed about issues; think about the 20 million new voters between the 2000 and 2004 elections.

Hillary attracted conservative women, including older retired folks who vote, stay-home "soccer moms", and business women. This was because of breaking-the-glass-ceiling, health care, fundamentalist, and talk-show (Martha Steward, the View, etc.) affiliations.

The GOP was losing that base, so they put in Palin and got those voters to switch back. These are likely voters. They are also voters who are less likely to vote for African-Americans, resent attacks on a working mother like Palin, don't watch any news show regularly and never read a political book (but might be in a book club). They likely go to a church or synagogue, support universal medicine, and think it's time for a woman to be President. They recycle and appreciate Hillary "stands by her man" when he goes astray. Hillary was an acceptable Christian, mother, and hero.

Objectively, it was predictable and some of us were discussing this possibility on DU before Palin was ever named.

Palin was good strategy for the repubs unless she has so many skeletons that they can't be overlooked. The issues are not as important as the person to those voters.