A simple reminder for the polling obsessed...

The only time Mondale was ahead of Reagan in the daily polls was immediately after picking Ferraro...

n/t

ohm.

I know I was excited when Mondale picked Ferraro. Over the moon, in fact! He was a bright guy, but flat as day old beer. Very uninspiring. Gerry injected massive excitement into the campaign, and the whole media world was abuzz with the first woman VP candidate. It all fell apart with her snake husband's financial dealings came to light.

Here is a thumbnail from Wiki:

The choice of Ferraro was viewed as a gamble, and pundits were uncertain whether it would result in a net gain or loss of votes for the Mondale campaign.<31> In the days after the convention, Ferraro proved an effective campaigner, with a brash and confident style that forcefully criticized the Reagan administration and sometimes almost overshadowed Mondale.<30><29><13> Mondale had been 16 points behind Reagan in polls before the pick, and after the convention he pulled even for a short time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro

I mean, we cry "outlier" all the time... and rightfully so. Take the Reuters poll of about 3-4 weeks ago that had McCain up by 5 when every other poll had Obama up by a few pts. That McCain lead wasn't replicated at the time or in subsequent polls for weeks afterwards.

But TEN points up? When Obama is either tied or up, by as much as 5-6-7-8 pts, in other post-RNC polls? http://pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm Even the daily tracking polls, which have typically showed the race to be closer, show a race that's tied following the McCain bounce (conducted over same time period as this polls). That makes this new Gallup poll "the mother of all outliers".

Sure, the RNC and the attention-grabbing (i.e. pandering) pick of Palin has given McCain a post-RNC bump. But are we supposed to assume it's given him a 10-15-point bounce literally overnight? I don't think so.

He'll be tied or even up a bit for the next few days, and then it'll fade.

Irony!

as they say in the financial world.

We're still 7 weeks out.