USATODAY POLL: McCain takes 10-point lead over Obama in likely voters...

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm

I'm unimpressed by what McPaper reports

n/t

If McCain-Palin wins, God help us all.

Look at where we are today. It is not an accident.

I guess I was trying to be optimistic. :cry:

the world will not take this BS anymore.

This AM McCain up by 4.

Now McCain up by 10

By evening he will be up by 50 points. They are making a joke of their own damn polls. Eventually no one will be able to believe shit from these people.
I just wish eventually would hurry up and get here.

and people should stop freaking out. It's the campaign bounce...there convention came after ours. We have yet to watch the results following a debate. Until then, none of this really matters.

Next week he'll be up by, like, 250!!!

OMG!!!

Clearly, things have tightened up again. But the wide variances between polling data samples indicates a situation in a state of dynamic flux. This indicates that there is considerable uncertainty out there in the minds of voters who claim to have made their decision.

Worry less. Work more.

USATODAY.com - Poll: 70% believe Saddam, 9-11 link
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2003-09-06-poll-iraq_x.htm
(The ONLY nation on the entire planet who EVER thought such a totally stupid piece of bullshit.)

wtf?

new poll; yes 85%

I'll buy stupid or uninformed but what leads you to think it is racism?

sad very sad if this man gets in.

include young voters and most African Americans.

See how it works?

Are those who voted in the last election of the type in question. So you are correct.

Polls are manufactured to sell papers, and airtime on cable news networks.

I just polled likely lunch eaters in my office.

Amongst all of the people likely to eat lunch, 56% thought they might have chicken.
32% had brought leftovers from home.
7% told me that polls made them lose their lunch.
5% told me to fuck-off and get the hell out of their cubicle, (mumbling something about a poll and my ass. I don't know it wasn't clear).

Now, I just made that whole thing up, but YOU read it, and it was interesting wasn't it?

and also is partially due to Gallop's methodology for reporting results of "likely voters." Palin re-energized those Night of the Broken Glass Republicans which increases their representation in these poll results.

Gallop's methodology for determining poll results for "likley voters" uses a series of questions to identify likely voters and assigns a numerical score to each poll respondent based on responses to those questions. Gallop then ranks all the respondents based on these scores and establishes a cut off point based on Gallop's estimation of probable turnout. Any respondent below that cut off point is not included in the poll results.

If they define "likely" on the basis of past voting regularity, then the hundreds of thousands of new voters the Dems registered would not be included in the poll.

And let's face it, the motiviation for people to get registered to vote this election when they haven't voted before is NOT so they can keep Bush's party in power.

One of the questions asked is "did you vote in the last election?" Another asks whether an emergency has ever prevented you from voting. These types of questions would result in a lower "likely voter" score for first time voters.

Obama campaign's David Plouffe called Gallup polls "pure garbage" two weeks ago during an on-the-record press
conference at the Democratic Convention. Now we understand why.

Jerk.

CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, ABC News, etc. are all going to quote from this poll today.

the president is determined by the electoral college, not national polls. And yes, Americans are easily swayed by GOP propaganda.

registered voters that Obama is bringing into play.

Of course, a lot of republican electoral fraud is hinged on the 'likely voter' - the newly registered are the most easily challenged for mistakes on their registrations, if they challenge at the polling station; the newly registered are the most likely to make mistakes on their ballots; and most importantly, if the machines flip the votes it is these 'unreliable' newly registered who can be pointed at as an excuse for the vote varying too much from the exit polls.

The truth is, they have no way on knowing, or calculating, who is 'likely' to vote. It's all part of the MSM push for McCain. They have to create the expectation of his victory to provide cover for the MASSIVE electoral fraud that will be needed to get him elected.

almost certainly excludes all newly registered voters.

first time. They aren't polled because they have never voted before.

I hope they don't dissapoint and turn out in droves. I think a lot will depend on turnout of young voters.

but will our votes be counted? That's what I fear.

Jerk.

Obama ahead? Talk about putting your head in the sand. I want to know what every poll says regardless of it's outcome. Like they always say, "knowledge is power," and in this campaign we need all of the knowledge that we can get.

.

:eyes:

PUMAs are no doubt enlisting for anti-Obama news trolling as well.

I mean, if it happens to be that undecided voters in swing state decided to go with McCain then this poll is basically BULLSHIT

Generally the accepted thinking from people who study these things is that it's a shoring up of the conservatives who abandoned McCain, which means they're likely in places McCain was winning...not swing voters, independents, moderates, centrists or anybody else who matters.

Chuck Todd was talking about the EC map and said that PA, OH are shifting our direction. NC is becoming razor-close but every reliable poll still shows McCain winning. The only "loss" we had was WI shifted from lean-Obama to toss-up and MO moved to lean-McCain. We gained 11 "safe" EC votes to 228 over last month and now lead 228-200. (Todd's map is by far the outlier in terms of leaning conservative as well. Most other projections show McCain under 200 safe and Obama in the 230-260 safe range.)

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/

I can tell you from the fact that I'm a poll-junkie that we're leading consistently in enough of the toss-up states comfortably (but within margin of error) that it's still very much ours to lose. The paths to a McCain victory are still shrinking daily, regardless of what national polls are reporting.

That they interviewed.


I can't find it here either......

They expect us to believe that after "The Puppet's" speech and the fact that we gave $10 million dollars to the Obama campaign in response; registered more voters by a 3 to 1 margin; and are still more fired up and excited about our candidates, that McSame/The Puppet are ahead? No way I believe that. Sure, he may have received a bump from his convention which I'm guessing reflects Republicans on the fence moreso than anything else, but he and The Puppet have done nothing to convince Undecideds and Independents that they are right for the country. McSame caved in to The Rightwing's demands. That's no maverick and it only shows that he has sold his soul to the right in order to get elected. Really sad, indeed...

On the other hand, I know we've discussed this many times, but Gallup and Rasmussen oversample Republicans. That's just a fact. Therefore I generally tend to ignore them. The methodology is flawed because these national polls DO NOT include *new* registrations and cannot account for the impact of TURNOUT. State polls are easier to conduct and the methodology is more precise because sampling techniques are easier due to the smaller universe of voters. That's why I'm much more inclined to pay attention to the state-by-state polls rather than the national polls. The latter reflects the public mood at any given snapshot in time. These polls fluctuate on a day to day basis. That's why they aren't accurate.

Finally, it cannot be stressed enough: the M$M and the Corporate Powers that Be NEED for this race to be close. It provides them the cover for ratings and keeps the horse race interesting.

Our response is to work harder. Get out and register voters, canvass or knock on doors. Talk to family and friends who live in "swing" states. Make calls and donate.

I'm glad that McCain and "The Puppet" are ahead. It keeps us from being complacent at a time when we need to be working very hard.