Rasmussen Daily McCain 48, Obama 47

Not up on their site yet, but those are today's numbers.

Tomorrow, McCain's huge Friday drops off.

that's about as far as it will go for McCain/Palin. We're into the real fight now.

Ras mentions Republican party ID increased a bit.

If that's the case, and it holds true with respect to turnout, all bets and all models are out the window.

We're flying blind at that point.

I bet that goes back to normal in a few days also.

but just putting info out there. Accurate info for intelligent planning.

I mean they get their data from voter reg right?

They dial random numbers. The only way they have of knowing voter id is by asking.

they should do a random sample of voter registrations...not random sample of anyone in the phone book.

Put a ceiling on her favorability numbers. Then go back after McCain. More of the same. Bush economy!

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Monday, September 08, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Barack Obama.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%. Tracking Poll results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.

Last Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August (see recent daily results).

McCain leads by four points among men while Obama leads by three among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women. Premium Members can review demographic crosstabs and all the data we collect--not just the portion we make public. Premium Members can also get an advance look at tracking poll results via the Daily Snapshot each morning.

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say that they are certain they will cast their ballot for McCain and will not change their mind before November. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about Obama. Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 60% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 55% (see trends).


more...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

IT drops off Gallup today.

if McSame can't establish a lead with his post-convention bounce, he's finished. All this shows is that he's not finished.

We need to continue to work like we're 10 points behind. No polling can change that fact.

Per the article (OT how do you make a "quote box"?):

Also, now that the conventions are behind us, state-by-state polling has resumed and the first new state data will be released at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time tonight.

Most of the EC map is stale. VA hasn't had a poll by ANYONE in three weeks. It will be real insteresting to see if McCain bounce only made red states redder or if purple went red. If it is the first scenario he is dead in the water. Winning TX by 20 points instead of 10 points won't change the EC math.

It is "possible" that McCain gains in polls. Maybe even moving up to 50%-50% w/ Obama but if his gains are only from the base Obama could pull all the leaning and tossup states. The EC map could put another 20-40 votes on the Blue side.

he'll win.

I hope they have some numbers for one or both of them.

Use:

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These will have been taken at the height of a McCain bounce and an uptick in support in national polls will probably be reflected in the state polling.

That doesn't mean this thing is over by any stretch. My guess is, as the original poster notes, this is an ephemeral bounce that will subside. That'll be true at the state level too. But for now, I expect there will be some handwringing over the state numbers. McCain might well be ahead in Ohio and Virginia and Michigan and Pennyslvania might be very close. (In fact out of all the blue states, Michigan seems iffiest -- Obama has a poor organization in the state because he didn't contest the primary and there's a lot of racial tension, plus McCain has always been popular there. Obama's likely the favorite but only just so.)

The problem I have is that state polling seems to be very infrequent. So we may get a poll from Ohio showing McCain doing well, and then that same poll will be pumped up by the media for an entire month making it seem worse than it is.

From this point out, we'll probably get much more frequent swing-state polling. And I think in October or so, some organizations will start putting out swing-state tracking polls.

from now.

and doing other fancy stuff -- boldface type, italics, etc. also fancy "smilies" --

When you push "reply", look at the "message options" area just above the white area where you type your subject line. See the blue-highlighted "HTML lookup table" and the "smilies lookup table"? If you click on either of those, a pop-up will appear showing you just what you need to do.

Welcome to DU :hi:

I refreshed the page just so I could get ONE warm fuzzy post before I went to work. That did it!

"When you hear the dogs begin to bark ......... KEEP GOING!!!"

to say I'm worried would be an understatement.

It's the first day of completely post-convention polling, which means McCain's bump wasn't all that effective. We're essentially tied after his convention bounce, which is as good as we could hope for given the margins heading into the convention season. We have positive debate bumps upcoming and an absolute barrage of advertising (as Obama can spend McCain into oblivion) heading into the final 2 months of campaigning.

For all the negative handwringing (which I fully understand, if not agree with), we're in very good position at this point. Yes, I know many feel we should be up by approximately 120389478089342% at this point, but like it or not, we are not a nation of DUers. Democratic trend or not, we are still fairly evenly divided as a nation.

:P

But yeah, this really isn't all that bad for us. We're waging a very winnable war in the battleground states, and the terrible economy is nothing but bad news for McCain and Co.

Ras was generally pretty accurate last few elections. However there poll formula has to be way off because the Dems now have a big registered voter advantage over Republicans. Something Ras hasn't adjusted for.

In 2004 the GOP had 1% advantage over us in registration. Now they are down 8%. So that's a 9% swing in registration reflected in the polls.

Remember we on DU are way ahead of the curve, most of America are starting the learing curve on the VP.