Next Two-Three Weeks Critical.

Here is how I handicap the presidential race today:

The presidential election will probably be decided in the next two or three weeks.

The first presidential debate is September 26 ... after that the remaining presidential and vice presidential debates will freeze voter decision-making. By the second week in October, in many parts of the country, early voting and delivery of mail-in ballots will begin -- 'election day' will have started.

So, barring any extraordinary events or mistakes by the candidates, these days before the first presidential debate are going to be critical to the outcome.

If McCain succeeds in redefining and re-branding himself as a "maverick", as a change-agent ... if Palin is perceived as evidence that he is an 'outsider', then the old man is going to be in a strong position going into the debates. If the Rovian-run McCain campaign successfully implants doubts about Obama's patriotism and religion, then Barack is in trouble.

If Obama succeeds in defining McCain as McCain-Bush, if he pummels Palin as evidence of McCain's extreme conservatism and poor judgment, then Obama will go into the first debate in a superior position. If Obama responds very aggressively to McCain's flip-flops and lies, if he hands out the punches as well as he can take them, then he will be perceived as strong and decisive enough to be commander-in-chief.

Of course, the economy is THE issue and if Obama successfully ties McCain to the poor state of family finances, he will be able to hold the offensive ground in the debates. On the other hand, if McCain succeeds in repositioning himself as just as much against Bush's handling of the economy as Obama, then the economy advantage is neutralized.

The Obama campaign, in my humble opinion, MUST adopt a 'take no prisoners' approach to the next eighteen days -- he cannot be 'Mr. Diplomat' or 'Professor Issues'. The radical Republicans will again take anything and everything and twist it and contort it to make Obama's patriotism the issue -- Obama must make McCain's mental stability and judgment a source of doubt for voters (that is why I think Palin is a gift to be exploited, she must not be ignored).

I am optimistic that the Obama campaign has learned from the mistakes of past Democratic presidential candidates. People don't begin their vote decision process based on issues -- they begin with what their gut tells them. Obama needs to wrap Bush so tightly to McCain that you cannot see light between them, and he needs to expose Palin for the right-wing religious extremist that she is.

So, I look forward to a blast against McCain-Bush starting today that will elevate Obama into the obvious and logical and safest choice for President. It should be very interesting.

the mystery around her makes the McCain Ticket attractive.

Are they going to keep her away from the Media for the 2-3 weeks.

You may just be on to something here.