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NBC: Post-convention electorial map leaning towards Obama

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sabra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 09:42 AM
Original message
NBC: Post-convention electorial map leaning towards Obama

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/

*** The post-convention map: After the conventions and the candidates’ VP picks, Obama still maintains a slight electoral lead, according to NBC’s map. Obama has 228 electoral votes to McCain’s 200, with 110 electoral votes in the toss-up column. The changes from last month, when Obama held a 217-189 advantage: Missouri moves from toss-up to Lean McCain, Pennsylvania moves from toss-up to Lean Obama, and Wisconsin moves from Lean Obama to toss-up. We came VERY close to moving North Carolina to toss-up, but until we see one decent poll showing Obama ahead, we're not there yet. Every North Carolina poll has had McCain ahead, though it is worth noting the RNC and the campaign are finally up in the Tar Heel state with paid media.

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, PA (38 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, VA, WI (110 votes)
Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, ND, SD (64 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)
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Hope And Change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 09:42 AM
Response to Original message
1. K & R!
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dennis4868 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 09:45 AM
Response to Original message
2. I don't know how reliable this is....
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 09:45 AM by dennis4868
becaue we need to see state polling that was taken after the convention....if this is all based on polls taken after the conventions than yahooooooo!
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lurky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 09:45 AM
Response to Original message
3. Finally, polls that matter! n/t
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Max_powers94 Donating Member (715 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 09:46 AM
Response to Original message
4. I think NC is going to be Obama's and MAYbe GA if the AA gets out in full force and Bob barr
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gateley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 09:52 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. Well I've converted ONE NC person to vote for Obama. :-D nt
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donco Donating Member (717 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 10:55 AM
Response to Reply #4
13. As well as Mo. nt
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Seen the light Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 10:47 PM
Response to Reply #4
26. Still gonna be tough here in NC demographically
As I'm knocking on doors for a local Democratic candidate in Harnett County (which has similar demographics to the majority of counties in the state), I'm running into all sorts of people that are willing to vote for my guy, but practically spit out the name Obama in disgust without me even mentioning him at all.

The ads that are running nonstop here do tell us a story though.
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EnviroBat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 09:52 AM
Response to Original message
5. That idiot McCain is back here in Ohio today.
No wonder there's a decidedly republican stink in the air today. I wish that shit-stain would stay the hell out of my state. He is a fucking insult. Every time he comes here, I donate money to Obama.
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Chan790 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #5
23. ...
The one thing that is making me happy talking to Ohioans is that I'm finding more people who support Barr than I expected. A vote for Bob Barr is a vote against McCain. I sincerely doubt that Barr is stealing too many votes away from Obama.

Split the electorate...win the state. If you can't convince them to support Obama...talk about how a vote for Bob Barr shows the GOP that they can't ignore true conservatives to court theocons and neocons.
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Dark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:18 PM
Response to Reply #5
28. You think it's bad now? n/t
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TheWraith Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 09:53 AM
Response to Original message
7. It's actually a lot better than that.
All the states in the "Lean Obama" column are pretty much locked up. Similarly, all the polls indicate that MI, NM, and NH are NOT toss-ups, but they're ours.
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Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #7
24. I was just thinking that four years ago, our state, Oregon, was
described as a battleground (albeit not a top-tier one). There has been zero talk of that so far, at least not that I've heard. McCain knows there is no f'ing way they will win Oregon.
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terrya Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 09:54 AM
Response to Original message
8. This looks good
I think Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin and Colorado will tip Obama. I think we'll lose Florida.

So, it does look very good. :-)
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 09:55 AM
Response to Original message
9. We are going to beat McClown.
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uponit7771 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 09:55 AM
Response to Original message
10. I believe Palins extremism alienated the middle. She mobalized people where weren't going to vote
...for Obama anyway and were going to hold their nose and vote for McSame
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Monty__ Donating Member (352 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 09:56 AM
Response to Original message
11. Every poll I've seen...
has had Michigan, Wisconsin and New Mexico as at least Obama leans not toss-ups with New Hampshire being a slight lean in most as well.
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Lugnut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 10:36 AM
Response to Original message
12. K&R n/t
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lady raven Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:00 AM
Response to Original message
14. I'm glad to see some encouraging news today. n/t
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me b zola Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:04 AM
Response to Original message
15. K&R
:kick:
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:05 AM
Response to Original message
16. what poll of WI do they have that moves it to toss up?
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:06 AM
Response to Original message
17. Wasn't there just a North Dakota poll which had Obama up by 3?
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Wednesdays Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:09 AM
Response to Original message
18. If McSame can't win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, it's over for him
If he loses those three states, it won't matter if McSame picks up all the other "undecided" states, it still won't be enough.

My gut tells me Obama pretty much has Wisconsin and Michigan down pat (neither has been a red state for president since 1988), and so it will all come down to what happens in Ohio.
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K8-EEE Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
19. We're in a WAY better spot than McLame
It's the electoral vote, it's the electoral vote, it's the electoral vote.

If KS & MS etc. get redder with Palin, big deal. She won't get the swing state votes they need.
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GirlieQ Donating Member (141 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:33 AM
Response to Original message
20. Those numbers are very conservative. CO is going blue again this year. n/t
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Shine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:34 AM
Response to Original message
21. See??? THIS is what matters.
:thumbsup:
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vanderBeth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:38 AM
Response to Original message
22. Thank You! I much prefer the electoral maps to other polls.
And this looks promising. I was feeling so pessimistic.
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DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 10:43 PM
Response to Original message
25. K&R
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I LIKE IKE 61 Donating Member (94 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:17 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. Not that easy.
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 11:20 PM by I LIKE IKE 61
Georgia *my home state* will go McCain because Barr will not get enough votes + blacks will not vote in high enough numbers. Also demographics of Northern ATL suburbs HEAVILY favor McCain.

Obama must win either Ohio or Florida. If he fails there then he needs to trounce McCain in NM NV MT ND and SD + win Pennsylvania!!!

I keep getting 269 to 269 ties half of my senerios at 270towin.com

I hope I'm wrong about 269 to 269. LOL.
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TheKentuckian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. 269 all will work
goes to Congress.
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