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jezebel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:03 AM
Original message
New CNN poll just out McCain 48 Obama 48
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 11:04 AM by jezebel
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/08/cnn-poll-race-dead-even/

CNN Poll: Race dead even
Posted: 12:01 PM ET

From CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser

WASHINGTON (CNN) — A new national poll taken entirely after the end of the Republican convention suggests the race for the White House between John McCain and Barack Obama is dead even.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll out Monday afternoon has McCain and Obama tied at 48 percent each among registered voters questioned. Three percent of voters are undecided in the survey, which was conducted Friday through Sunday.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll is one of three new surveys taken mostly over the weekend. The other two are a Gallup Tracking Poll and a Diageo/Hotline survey. When all three are averaged together for a new CNN Poll of Polls, the results have McCain up one point, 47 percent to 46 percent. That’s the first time in the CNN Poll of Polls that McCain has an advantage over Obama.

The battle for the presidency also includes some minor party candidates, including Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney — but the poll suggests they don’t have any impact on the shape of the race.

When they are added to the equation, the race between McCain and Obama remains tied, at 45 percent each, with Nader and Barr at 3 percent each and McKinney at 1 percent.

Has the Republican convention and the naming of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate given McCain a bounce in the polls?

“Other polls are showing ‘convention bounces’ for McCain, but ours does not,’ says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “The reason is probably due to the fact that the CNN poll has had a very low number of respondents who say they are undecided for several months. Bounces tend to occur when undecided voters switch to a candidate, but with so few truly undecided voters in our polls, there was little room for a bounce for Obama or McCain.”

Holland also points out that despite a concerted outreach by the McCain-Palin team to former women supporters of Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid, women nationwide seem to be sticking with Obama – 52 percent of women are planning to vote Democratic, while 51 percent of men are in the GOP column.
The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was based on 1,022 telephone interviews. The survey’s sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Filed under: Barack Obama • John McCain

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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:04 AM
Response to Original message
1. So really no change, weren't they tied just before the Dem convention too in CNN Poll?
I'll take a tie because then our ground game should be able to put Obama over the top.
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jezebel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. yep, they had it 47-47 before both conventions. nt
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:04 AM
Response to Original message
2. So really no change, weren't they tied just before the Dem convention too in CNN Poll?
I'll take a tie because then our ground game should be able to put Obama over the top.
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Aviation Pro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:04 AM
Response to Original message
3. Which means all the panic over the weekend was just....
...panic.
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Curtland1015 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. No! We must all keep panicing! It's the only way to victory!
:sarcasm:
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StrongBad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:05 AM
Response to Original message
4. That is more reasonable than +10 McCain
I'm guessing USA Today is an outlier.
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qanda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:08 AM
Response to Reply #4
9. Or an out and out liar
They more than likely oversampled Republicans for their bogus results.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:09 AM
Response to Reply #4
11. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
SuperTrouper Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:06 AM
Response to Original message
6. So much for McCain's "huge" bounce. Even CNN knows that the novelty act is wearing thin
By the end of the week expect Obama/Biden moving up in the polls and then we'll see the debates. Forget about Sarah Palin, SHE IS A DISTRACTION. I do not give a shit about Track, Piper, Willow, Trig, Bristol or Todd!!! I do give a shit about unmasking McCain, he is at the top of the ticket.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:06 AM
Response to Original message
8. I Am Not One To Cherry Pick Polls But I Am Beginning To Become Suspicious Of Gallup
They look like an outlier now...
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tedoll78 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. I suspect that their party ID model..
might be a bit stale.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #8
13. I think USA Today/Gallup's poll always seems like an outlier
I think their tracking poll numbers are much better.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:12 AM
Response to Reply #13
16. Gallup Is The Poll That Drives News Coverage And It Sucked
It really hurt Gore in 00 because it gave the impression of a losing campaign...

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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:09 AM
Response to Original message
10. OK, we lost a little ground, but there was no meltdown
Take a deep breath, and get back to work.
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:11 AM
Response to Original message
14. That vaunted McCain bump
is looking more and more like a pimple.
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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:11 AM
Response to Original message
15. Good--that's not much of a convention/pitbull bounce, is it?
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Sodan Donating Member (802 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 11:15 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. Nope
And whatever the reasons have been to not put Palin on any talkshows - it's stupid.
People's memories are short - maybe she's forgotten already :)

We'll see in the coming days' polls.
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Ernesto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 12:00 PM
Response to Original message
18. When only 5 corporations control 90% of all "news" available, what do you expect?
A tight race is good for bidness, don't ya see!
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