Warning: State-by-state polls may NOT be good

Starting today and continuing this week, we'll likely get a bunch of new state polls. This will tell us a great deal about the actual state of the race in the Electoral College.

Yet what worries me is that people right now are taking comfort in the fact that state polling shows Obama way ahead in the EV. The reason this worries me is that these are based on OLD POLLS.

The state polls that we'll soon see are almost all going to be from the height of the McCain convention bounce and the Palin coverage. They may very well not be all that encouraging. They'll be tight, there'll probably be at least a few that will be very disheartening; McCain could very well be leading in Ohio and possibly Michigan.

Now, this does NOT mean that you should think the sky is falling. Polls taken at the height of a McCain convention bounce will show movement towards McCain. That will probably subside over the next couple of weeks as the race re-settles.

The point of all this is, in fact, to discourage that. What I fear is that people have tried to comfort themselves with the state-by-state polling and if it turns out to be not-so-great, DU'ers concern trolls are again going to fall into a massive tizzy.

Patience, my friends. Let's wait and see how the polls look in a couple weeks and in the meantime, donate, go out and volunteer, phone bank, canvass or talk to friends or family you know are wavering.

So they probably will show an artificial bounce for McCain. I think we need to keep this in perspective.

:sarcasm:

have under reporting except in some very unusual cases like Florida.

and everything else looking pretty close to the same.