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PPP Michigan Poll - Obama 47, McLame 46

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009)

MadBadger

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Mon Sep-08-08 12:28 PM
Original message

PPP Michigan Poll - Obama 47, McLame 46

The previous poll in July had Obama up 3. Basically, Palin is helping a little bit, though not enough to put them over the top. They have closed the independent gap and are now tied in those voters.

Poll was taken over the weekend and could be just a convention bounce.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/09/michigan-presidentsenate.html

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speedoo

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Mon Sep-08-08 12:33 PM
Response to Original message

1. MIchigan is ours.

Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 12:33 PM by speedoo

If that's the best McSame can do, at the peak of his convention bounce, he's not winning MI.

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Morrisons Ghost

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Mon Sep-08-08 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #1

12. Yes

Michigan hasn't went to a repub since Reagan I believe! I could be wrong on that. If I am please correct!

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goldcanyonaz

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Mon Sep-08-08 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #12

18. Bush in 88.

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Morrisons Ghost

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Mon Sep-08-08 06:31 PM
Response to Reply #18

31. Oh!

That's right! Forgot about Bush1! Thanks!

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WeDidIt

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Mon Sep-08-08 12:34 PM
Response to Original message

2. WOW, McCain needed to be in the lead there as of this poll!

That's bad news for McCain. Poll taken over the weekend after his convention and he's still down by one?

Not good at all for McCain in Michigan.

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thewiseguy

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Mon Sep-08-08 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #2

5. You are exactly right.

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sandnsea

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Mon Sep-08-08 12:37 PM
Response to Original message

3. And good news is ignored

I swear people would rather attack Obama than help get him elected. Just like in 2004.

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WeDidIt

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Mon Sep-08-08 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #3

7. I think some people are here earning McCain points

They are paid in McCain gear via points for blog posting.

;)

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Pirate Smile

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Mon Sep-08-08 12:38 PM
Response to Original message

4. Poll was done at the strongest possible time for McCain? What a dumb-ass time to do a poll.

Obama is probably in pretty good shape.

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Romulox

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Mon Sep-08-08 12:40 PM
Response to Original message

6. Michigan is in play because of the Party's support for "free trade". nt

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sandnsea

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Mon Sep-08-08 12:48 PM
Response to Reply #6

8. That's why Hillary did so well in the rust belt

Bill Clinton's opposition to free trade.

:eyes:

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Romulox

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Mon Sep-08-08 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #8

9. Hillary ran on an anti-NAFTA platform here, and forced Obama to follow suit.

When he moved back to the right on trade after the primaries--by appointing Jason Furman as his economic advisor and by retracting his previous criticism of NAFTA, it really hurt him in Michigan.

At any rate, you're surely not trying to argue that "free trade" is popular here? :silly:

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sandnsea

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Mon Sep-08-08 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #9

10. John Kerry ran on NAFTA reform

Obama opposed NAFTA when it was first introduced.

People are stupid and chose to believe the white lady instead of the black guy. That's why she won in the rust belt. Stop making excuses for it.

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Romulox

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Mon Sep-08-08 01:28 PM
Response to Reply #10

13. Uhhh, "Sometimes during campaigns the rhetoric gets overheated and amplified..."

And Kerry called Howard Dean a "protectionist" in 2004. :puke:

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sandnsea

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Mon Sep-08-08 01:37 PM
Response to Reply #13

14. What???

You read wsws too much. Seeya.

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Romulox

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Mon Sep-08-08 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #14

17. WSWS? That quote originally appeared in FORTUNE magazine.

Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 01:49 PM by Romulox

Anyway, it is really dumb to try to tell me the economy isn't important to Michigan voters, and then insinuate I'm a socialist (ewwww! :sarcasm: ) when I disagree.

Obama: NAFTA not so bad after all

In an interview with Fortune to be featured in the magazine's upcoming issue, the presumptive Democratic nominee backed off his harshest attacks on the free trade agreement and indicated he didn't want to unilaterally reopen negotiations on NAFTA.

"Sometimes during campaigns the rhetoric gets overheated and amplified," he conceded, after I reminded him that he had called NAFTA "devastating" and "a big mistake," despite nonpartisan studies concluding that the trade zone has had a mild, positive effect on the U.S. economy.

Does that mean his rhetoric was overheated and amplified? "Politicians are always guilty of that, and I don't exempt myself," he answered.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/18/magazines/fortune/easton_obama.fortune/

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sandnsea

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Mon Sep-08-08 02:03 PM
Response to Reply #17

21. I don't see Kerry's name in that article

:shrug:

The article says:

"Obama says he believes in "opening up a dialogue" with trading partners Canada and Mexico "and figuring to how we can make this work for all people."

Obama spokesman Bill Burton said that Obama-as the candidate noted in Fortune's interview-has not changed his core position on NAFTA, and that he has always said he would talk to the leaders of Canada and Mexico in an effort to include enforceable labor and environmental standards in the pact."

That's what Obama always said. The article distorts his views - what else is new. They always do that. You buy it because you want to.

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Romulox

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Mon Sep-08-08 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #21

24. Your google broken? "Kerry Attacks Rival Dean Over Protectionism"

Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 03:32 PM by Romulox

Kerry Attacks Rival Dean Over Protectionism

...Speaking in Detroit, Mr. Kerry said that Dr. Dean and Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, who have staked out traditional pro-labor positions on trade, were pandering to unions and advocating a ''retreat from the global economy.''

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9F06E0D81F3AF930A1575AC0A9659C8B63

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sandnsea

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Mon Sep-08-08 03:44 PM
Response to Reply #24

26. He didn't use that word

He didn't call anybody a protectionist. And he wasn't talking about supporting free trade. Somebody decided to write an article pretending he was. Kerry's the one who tried to get stronger environmental laws into trade agreements, back in the 90's. Differentiating between fairer trade and wrong-headed approaches to trade is not the same thing as calling someone a protectionist. Kerry had the support of union workers, in both the primary and the GE, because he had the better trade policies. People aren't stupid. They know we have to trade.

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Romulox

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Mon Sep-08-08 05:33 PM
Response to Reply #26

30. Nice try, but there is a transcript of the remarks.

WILLIAMS: Congressman, thank you.

Senator Kerry, you have accused Governor Dean of playing on workers' fears and advocating protectionism and saying that under him it threatens to throw the economy into a tail spin. It that fair?

KERRY: Yes, it is fair, because Governor Dean, on a number of occasions across the country, has said very specifically that we should not trade with countries until they have labor and environment standards that are equal to the United States.

That means we would trade with no countries. It is a policy for shutting the door. It's either a policy for shutting the door, if you believe it, or it's a policy of just telling people what they want to hear.

I think there's a middle ground that's smart for America. No president can shut the door to globalization and no president should.

-CNBC/Wall Street Journal Presidential Democratic Candidate Debate,Thursday, September 25, 2003

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/primdeb/deb092503trb.html

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phrigndumass

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Mon Sep-08-08 01:06 PM
Response to Original message

11. From the link, it seems older folks in Michigan are migrating toward McCain ...

PPP previously had the Age 65 and up demographic at McCain +4, but now it's McCain +16.

I'll take the one point lead, though :D

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Egnever

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Mon Sep-08-08 02:00 PM
Response to Reply #11

20. Sigh this election season is making me hate old people

The sad thing is I am starting to approach old fairly quickly. God help me if I ever become as cynical as my parents generation.

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noonwitch

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Mon Sep-08-08 01:41 PM
Response to Original message

15. Obama will win Michigan

The polls never really take Detroit into account, and over sample the suburbs and the western bible belt.

Detroit is going to get out the vote big time-it's been getting a bigger turnout each year. The last year I voted in the city, in 2000, I never saw as many voters turn out at 7:45 am to vote. Detroit has a better election clerk than last time out, too.

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Hard Leftt

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Mon Sep-08-08 01:47 PM
Response to Original message

16. Michigan

No way Cain has a shot at Michigan, I wouldn't worry about this state at all. Focus on Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia.

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WI_DEM

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Mon Sep-08-08 01:57 PM
Response to Original message

19. Again, taken while McCain is having his convention bounce, so I would

wait for a Michigan poll taken a week or two from now to indicate the true nature of the race.

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catgirl

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Mon Sep-08-08 02:27 PM
Response to Original message

22. I sighed with relief when I saw it was a PPP poll

PPP sucks.

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MadBadger

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Mon Sep-08-08 02:28 PM
Response to Reply #22

23. I disagree with you on that one.

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catgirl

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Mon Sep-08-08 04:46 PM
Response to Reply #23

27. They were often way off during the primaries

Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 04:47 PM by catgirl

I was attacked for posting one of their polls. And I found out why- because they weren't even close
on many polls.

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MadBadger

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Mon Sep-08-08 04:47 PM
Response to Reply #27

28. Besides PA, I thought they were pretty good for the primaries.

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Strawman

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Mon Sep-08-08 03:38 PM
Response to Original message

25. Read this...

Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 03:39 PM by Strawman

"Public Policy Polling also has a survey out in Michigan, which shows Obama with a 1-point, 47-46 lead. Those are better numbers for McCain than other PPP polls of the Wolverine State -- he had trailed by 3 in July -- but actually ought to be a somewhat heartening result for Democrats, since it means that Michigan is polling about 3 or 4 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole."

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/todays-polls-97_08.html

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blue_onyx

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Mon Sep-08-08 05:03 PM
Response to Original message

29. McCain never seems to change much in polls

Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 05:05 PM by BreatheOnMe

Most Michigan polls I remember this election season show McCain around 44-46. Obama seems to be the one who gains or loses. I think McCain may be hitting a wall. I think Michigan will become stronger and stronger for Obama as the election nears.

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