Don't believe the big Gallup Republican "bounce"--Other polls use a more accurate methodology unlikely

a more accurate methodology unlikely to show it.

Exactly the same thing happened in 2004 (see the second link and summary below): Polls using the Gallup methodology showed a big Republican convention bounce, along with a big jump in "enthusiasm" for Republican candidates, while other polls using a different methodology showed only a tiny bounce.

Don't be alarmed; the next Gallup poll should show a dramtic swing back toward Democrats.

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From http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm :

"In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/- 3 points for both samples. ...

Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%. ..."

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The big jump in measured Republican "enthusiasm" likely is the tip-off that Gallup's Republican "bounce" is biased upward.

From poll to poll, the composition of the half or less of those chosen randomly who actually respond fluctuate. Thus virtually all polling organizations except Gallup re-weight their sample statistically so it looks like the projected electorate on next Election Day on "party ID", ethnicity, gender, income, and other factors known to be strongly correlated with "candidate preference".

Gallup does not weight by "party ID", though it does weight by other factors. And its own results from this weekend show a dramatic jump in "enthusiasm" for one's party's candidates. This is a big problem and possible source of BIAS for Gallup's methodology, since Republicans temporarily "energized" by the theatrics at St. Paul may be much less likely to refuse a Gallup interview, though no more likely to show up at the polls in November. Also, during R convention week, Republicans are more likely than Democrats and Independents to be sitting home in front of the TV and thus be available to get the call from Gallup. Thus convention-week Gallup polls likely have "too many Republicans"--greater percentages in the sample than will show up at the polls in November. Garbage in, garbage out.

Gallup and Rasmussen (then using the Gallup methodology) showed big post-convention bounces for Republican candidate preference four years ago, while other organizations weighting by party ID showed tiny gains for the Rs. Rasmussen then blamed their error on the methodology they used and switched to the "weight by party ID" camp.

See http://www.depts.ttu.edu/hs/hdfs3390/weighting.htm .

I see Obama stickers on cars way more than I see McCain stickers in this Republican circle of hell, the rightwing suburban nightmare that is Atlanta.