For the doom and gloomers: poll numbers can and will change. A lot.

Check this graphic from 2004 to see how much the polls can change between late August and election day:


http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/polls/index.html

Anyone who thought this election was going to be decided in AUgust or September, before there were debates, before people were really paying attention, before the campaigns really began doing the hand to hand, ground level combat that decides elections --- well, they were just fooling themselves.

This is the best McCain is going to get. They don't want people looking at Palin's record and scandals for two months. They don't want heavy scrutiny on McCain's constant gaffes. They don't want to debate that's for sure. Bush was up as high as 14 points at a later date than this. And that was a nailbiter. The debates will be big. No doubt about it.

Right now, Obama looks great in the electoral college. That's more important. McCain gained some extra votes in states he was already going to win, in reality, he's fighting to hold on to states Bush won easily 4 years ago. He'll get no new pickups and lose Iowa and probably New Mexico for sure. Obama's in an excellent position.