On November 1, 2008 the Palin talk nationwide will be minimal

Here's how the Palin phenomenon is going to go.

1. For the next few weeks, public interest in her will be continue to be high. She will do interviews and do reasonably well, although there is no way she is going to have an in-depth knowledge of the issues. Those interested in the Palin phenomenon will read every magazine and online article on her- her minimal track record will be delved into to the nth degree. At some point in the next few weeks, virtually every one will reach a Palin saturation point. Her voice will start to sound squeakier and more nasally (it's always sounded that way to me) and her little "snarky hockey mom" routine will wear thin. This is not a woman whose speaking style will be confused with Margaret Thatcher's.

2. She will have her debate with Biden in early October. She has good natural debating skills, but, once again, there's no way she will have in-depth command of the issues. Most likely, she will do ok but not great in the debate, and people will realize that she's talented but has a long way to go. I expect there's a one chance in three that her debate performance will be a fiasco, but we can't count on that.

3. The final 2 presidential debates will be held in October. By this point, everyone will know all there is to know about Palin, she will have made several gaffes which reveal her to be not-ready-for-prime-time, and people will be remembering just how little anyone hears from VPs, regardless of who the VP is. McCain's old and scarred face will be staring at the public in debates and everyone will realize that this face, not Sarah's, will be starting at them for the next 4 years if they vote McCain.

4. On election day, I think a lot of people are going to realize that this is it for Obama and for the chance of there being a black president in our lifetimes. If Obama doesn't win here, I don't see a major party nominating an African-American man in the foreseeable future. I think there will be a sense of there being a choice between an opportunity to make history and four more years of the same. I fully expect Obama to win.