Reality check: DU's predictions for where the polls will be (handwringers were right)

Last week I put out this poll (see link) on where the polls would be following the two conventions. In that survey, 29 people said Obama would be ahead in the polls today (13 said by 5 percentage points or more), while only 9 people said McCain would be in the lead.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6921786&mesg_id=6921786

Those of us who are accused of being "handwringers" because we don't look at the world through rosy spectacles were correct. McCain has enjoyed more of a bump than Obama. McCain's leading in the three newest polls from over the weekend.



The pollster.com graphic shows McCain closing fast. Pollster.com records the following national polls:
      McCain 49, Obama 47 (ABCPost: 9/5-7)
      McCain 46, Obama 44 (CBS: 9/5-7)
      McCain 48, Obama 48 (CNN: 9/5-7)
      McCain 54, Obama 44 (USAToday: 9/5-7)
      McCain 50, Obama 46 (Zogby: 9/5-6)



Can this be fixed? Yes, and it will be. I'm not terribly concerned; it is a bump, after all. But serious work and objective critical thinking skills will be helpful now in ways that rah-rah blindness is not. Plus I just like to point out that I was right and you were wrong.

I am now ready for you to start shooting the messenger and "duly noting" my concerns. Or, failing that, post something here to inspire your fellow DUers to go volunteer for the campaign.

between two rounded-off numbers are not very reliable.

Obama still is much stronger in the EV. Pollster.com shows him with a 60 EV advantage. Again, I'm not too worried. But this is an indication we should get hustling on the volunteer front. As it stands now, I'm tempted to take a week off from work in early November and go volunteer at the closest purple state I can find for a GOTV effort.

Moral: Don't be cocky.

1st rec.

"Plus I (sic) just like to point out that I was right and you were wrong."

Would you like a cookie? :eyes:

You think I'm bad here, you should see me around the Republicans at work.

Poetry in motion, no doubt :-)

I don't like seeing people belittled because they are nervous about this election. Anyone living in the reality-based community is understandably nervous, given the last two Presidential elections, and the fact that the polls have been very close, when in a sane, logical world, they shouldn't be. And a phrase that really should be dropped is, 'You're concern has been noted.' It's a condescending brushoff that has no place here, especially when aimed towards people we know are on our side. I heard the same stuff 4 years ago, and we know how that went.

Powerful strategy is rejected because of rabid support for optimistic assumptions.

What exactly does handwringing accomplish?

salt and pepper please.

I realize I can't match the stupidity of the masses.

What kind of retarded, inbreed, mindless, shallow soul would respond with anything other than anger, disgust, or disdain following the RNC?

Oh well, more work, more donations, more preaching!!!

NO HANDWRINGING!

Sorry, but EVERYBODY was predicting this. Simply put, attempting to infer only handwringers said the polls would do this is at best, dishonest.

facts suck, my friend.

Trying to cite a DU poll substantially lacks facts, my friend.

to support this assertion he cites a poll of forty-four DUers.

It's just os much bullshit stacked on top of bullshit that the stink is indescribable.

Trying to cite a DU poll substantially lacks facts, my friend.

My only point is about DUers. A DU poll is an accurate represtenation of DUers. Please try to understand the context. My point is about the unrealistic world view of DUers and the need for us to be less smug and more involved.

Your poll is a reflection of the poeple who saw your poll during the time it was active on DU, and chose to participate.


Your poll surveyed forty-four people.

Your margin of error is somewhere right around about 60%.

It's bullshit, and you know it.

be of good cheer

DU has steadily become an almost intolerable bastion of group think. Where anyone voicing anything than unabashed adulation for the anointed dem candidate, is shouted down in a troglodytic, adolescent fashion.

Nobody ever won an election with rose colored glasses. Yeesh.