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ABC News/WaPo Poll: Obama 47, McCain 46

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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:36 PM
Original message
ABC News/WaPo Poll: Obama 47, McCain 46
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 04:38 PM by VolcanoJen
Can everyone finally agree that the USAToday/Gallup Poll was just a big fat outlier? McCain got a dead-cat bounce. Palin hasn't done a damn thing for the ticket, because America gets it: "THEY THINK YOU'RE STUPID."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/postpoll_090808.html

More info on the poll, which was released only moments ago:

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone September 5-7, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,133 adults and 961 registered voters, including additional interviews with randomly selected African Americans, for a total of 211 black respondents. The additional interviews (commonly referred to as an "oversample") were completed to ensure there were enough African American respondents for separate analysis; the group was not over-represented in the reported results from the full sample. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Error margins are higher for subgroups. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:37 PM
Response to Original message
1. But if there's nothing to panic over...
what ever will we do tonight?

:thumbsup:
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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. We could post the list of books Palin banned.
:rofl:
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #2
25. Do you have any pictures
of Sarah or Bristol during their pregnancies? Maybe we could study them for a while and see if we can come to a decision about just how pregnant they are. :)
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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #25
29. ROFL
No kidding!!!!!

I really do hope DU can snap the hell out of this and get our swagger back.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:15 PM
Response to Reply #1
26. I'll really miss all those posts piling on the demoralizing when
they thought Obama Biden were sliding away into obscurity:silly::thumbsdown: :grr:
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:38 PM
Response to Reply #26
28. You know what I miss?
The Rezko threads. Ah, the salad days...
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:57 PM
Response to Reply #28
31. LOL!
Back in the Day:toast: :patriot:
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:40 PM
Response to Original message
3. Can I give you a big hug?
I did have trouble extracting the information from that long list, and it does appear that Obama is down 2 in "likely voters" - but this is VERY good news!
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:41 PM
Response to Original message
4. One of the few polls that will give you actual details!
I love this!
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SeeHopeWin Donating Member (649 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:41 PM
Response to Original message
5. Take THAT you bastard!!!
Stop the fucking whining PLEASE........
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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:41 PM
Response to Original message
6. It's also the first of the ABC/WaPo polls that include the names of the running mates.
;-)
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:42 PM
Response to Original message
7. There was a 20 point shift with White Women to McCain
that isnt good.
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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:43 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Look at the favorables.
There are all kinds of ways to find good and bad in polling. Here's a good:

Obama and Palin are more popular than McCain. McCain is a drag on his own damned ticket.
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PolNewf Donating Member (388 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #7
16. I agree, but she is still *generic white women* to the low information voters
I expect she will lose some of that when women really get to know her positions\beliefs.
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Peacetrain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:42 PM
Response to Original message
8. WHEW thank goodness..
I have been getting hit over the head for the last two days, every time I said that the numbers were part of the bounce.

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AngryOldDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:42 PM
Response to Original message
9. Chuck Todd basically said the same thing.
He says to wait for the MSNBC/Wall St. Journal poll on Wednesday.

(Yeah, yeah, I know that MSNBC is persona non grata around here, but...the Gallup numbers were out-and-out bullshit.)
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Happyhippychick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:47 PM
Response to Original message
11. Thanks for that!
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:49 PM
Response to Original message
12. Would be the better Commander-in-Chief? McCain 69% to Obama's 24%.
(Josh Marshall is right. McCain's chief foreign policy adviser is PNAC and CLI Executive Director Randy Scheunemann. This should be setting off alarm bells, but the media is virtually ignoring this critical fact which telegraphs who John McCain is and what kind of Commander-in-Chief he would be.)

Just a Thought

09.08.08 -- 9:49AM
By Josh Marshall

If John McCain wins, for all that has happened over the last eight years in Iraq and elsewhere, we would get a new president even more closely tied to the DC neoconservative axis than President Bush has ever been.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/214556.php
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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:51 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Who has a better temperament and personality to be president?
Obama 57, McCain 35

Look for the Republicans to drop their "This campaign isn't about issues, it's about personality" by tomorrow. ;-)
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #14
23. Unbelievable that voters are so schizophrenic--unless their answer on C-in-C is based solely on
McNasty's military service. Perhaps the pollsters ought to throw out the Commander-in-Chief question!
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #12
27. This is why the debates will be very important
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Cheney Killed Bambi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:49 PM
Response to Original message
13. For likely voters
McCain leads 49 to 47
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mvd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:52 PM
Response to Original message
15. Well the good news is that we are so close with..
those kind of internal numbers.
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Vinca Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:57 PM
Response to Original message
17. We cannot obsess about polls . . . really.
I live in a swing state and pollsters call here all the time, to the point of being annoying. We recognize the numbers on the caller ID and rarely pick up the phone. In addition, cell phone users aren't polled and many of Obama's base do not even have a land line. That said, I'll probably start picking up the phone just to be sure they don't start with the push polling.
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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #17
22. I couldn't agree more!
Everyone should have always treated this election like it was going to be down-to-the-wire close, because that's exactly how it's going to be.

And McCain might have bounced back up to a dead heat, but he's not running away with this thing, the way the USA Today/Gallup poll had some DUers thinking today. :-)
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 04:57 PM
Response to Original message
18. he got a bounce where he tied things up, but yes, that one poll is a outliar
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PolNewf Donating Member (388 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:00 PM
Response to Original message
19. If young people turnout Obama wins, if not he loses.
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PolNewf Donating Member (388 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:00 PM
Response to Original message
20. dup
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 05:00 PM by PolNewf
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Cattledog Donating Member (695 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:01 PM
Response to Original message
21. It's White Women who have helped McCain (link)
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 05:04 PM by Cattledog
http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1070a1AftertheConventions.pdf
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WindRiverMan Donating Member (693 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:51 PM
Response to Original message
24. Cool, and remember
this is supposedly the benchmark for all the polls. WSJ is considered more accurate than Gallup
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DCBob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:46 PM
Response to Original message
30. Yes! That's more like it.
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 06:46 PM by DCBob
Screw that dopey USAToday poll!
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TheKentuckian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 07:20 PM
Response to Reply #30
32. Be of good cheer! We will win because we are right and
we will be relentless.
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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 07:22 PM
Response to Reply #30
34. Dopey indeed! It's a huge outlier and stands in stark contrast...
... to basically every single other poll that came out today.

This thing is tied and will likely remain so until the debates, when someone will bust through. This isn't 2004, it's more like 1980. :-)
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Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 07:20 PM
Response to Original message
33. Kick
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Kukesa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 07:38 PM
Response to Original message
35. Kick! n/t
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