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09/09 New Rasmussen State polls (OH, FL, PA, VA, CO)

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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:27 PM
Original message
09/09 New Rasmussen State polls (OH, FL, PA, VA, CO)
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 05:40 PM by Statistical
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling

Post convention state polls:
OH 44%-51% +7 McCain
FL 48%-48% Tied
PA 47%-45% +2 Obama
VA 47%-49% +2 McCain
CO 49%-46% +3 Obama

Not much bounce. Obama looks good except for OH (ouch).

Comparing this poll to last one:
OH 44%-51% (was 43%-48%) McCain gains net 2
FL 48%-48% (was 46%-48%) Obama gains net 2
PA 47%-45% (was 43%-45%) Obama gains net 4
VA 47%-49% (was 47%-48%) McCain gains net 1
CO 49%-46% (was 48%-49%) Obama gains net 4

Bad news is it looks like McCain is securing OH.
Good news is that having convention in CO was GREAT idea. Moved 4pts. From small 1 point McCain lead to 3 point Obama lead, despite a McCain boost nationally.
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cottonseed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:28 PM
Response to Original message
1. We need the old cast of WKRP to endorse now!
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Connie_Corleone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:29 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. That won't help.
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dennis4868 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:29 PM
Response to Original message
2. what happened in Ohio and VA....
those states were close and perhaps even leaning towards Obama....WTF?
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Fluffdaddy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:32 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. The South is never going to go DEM.................. loss cause
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 05:33 PM by Fluffdaddy
Work hard on Ohio
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...of J.Temperance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:36 PM
Response to Reply #9
21. Northern Virginia isn't The South, it's Metropolitan now and has had
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 05:37 PM by ...of J.Temperance
An influx of new people moving there the past few years, Northern Virginia is like an extension of Washington DC these days.

The majority of those people are Democrats, if you check the recent election results in Virginia, Northern Virginia voted Democratic in landslides....Northern Virginia's votes can now cancel out the votes of the more Conservative rural areas of Virginia.

Obama should be doing good in Virginia....Pennsylvania is VERY disappointing right now by that poll, Obama should be at least 10 points in the lead.


On Edit: Dammit spelling error
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secondwind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:38 PM
Response to Reply #21
28. don't worry, Joe Biden will deliver PA to us............ :)
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...of J.Temperance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #28
36. I damn well hope so....we have Governor Rendell as well
I mean what the HELL can McCain/Palin possibly offer a state like Pennsylvania....nothing that's what.
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SuperTrouper Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:29 PM
Response to Original message
4. Cheryl Jacobus and the McCain heavy breathers must be pissed
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bigdarryl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:30 PM
Response to Original message
5. PAPA ain't winning OH you heard it hear first
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Connie_Corleone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:31 PM
Response to Original message
6. I'll assume this has to be the effect of the RNC convention.
Hopefully, the next round of state polls in a couple of weeks will show improvement. They better.
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...of J.Temperance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:33 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. But the GOP Convention was abysmal, why are people buying this shit AGAIN?
I mean it's brain-melting, I can't understand it.
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Connie_Corleone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #10
17. People believe what they hear.
The numbers in Ohio and Pennsylvania will get better. Obama WILL win Ohio and Pennsylvania.
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...of J.Temperance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:44 PM
Response to Reply #17
43. People need to SHAKE the sawdust out of their heads then
Shake the sawdust out to reactivate the brain....and stop believing what the media whores tell them to believe and start to think independently for themselves.

My goodness, don't these people have a God given brain, they should learn to use the damn thing.

Sorry for mini-rant mode there ;)
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:40 PM
Response to Reply #10
35. The Rubes are Buying It Because the MSM Told Them To
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...of J.Temperance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:46 PM
Response to Reply #35
46. The message should be: FUCK the Mainstream Media
Learn to think for themselves instead of being lazy and eating whatever horsecrap the Media Dittoheads serve up.
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Kind of Blue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:17 PM
Response to Reply #10
60. because it's not about the issues.
It's about an urban black guy and a "Christian" white lady.
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...of J.Temperance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:31 PM
Response to Original message
7. Virginia looks a MESS as well and WTF is happening in Pennsylvania?
I CANNOT believe that the GOP Convention which was pretty appalling and McCain's extremely limp speech has resulted in these stupid poll numbers.

:(
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Qutzupalotl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. 47 + 59 = 106%
I think it's a typo.

47/49, maybe?
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StrongBad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. OP edited to 49...Was a typo
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Connie_Corleone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:36 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. Thanks for that! That's a lot better. LOL
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:37 PM
Response to Reply #19
27. My bad
Oops. Yeah I copied # by hand. Ras has them in horrible format. 49 lot better than 59. :)
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...of J.Temperance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #11
32. Okay
47/49....Pennsylvania is ridiculously close, why I don't know.
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Qutzupalotl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:46 PM
Response to Reply #32
47. Post-convention bounce, I'd say.
Look for that to change soon. He's been focused there lately.
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...of J.Temperance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:47 PM
Response to Reply #47
51. Word n/t
.
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msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:32 PM
Response to Original message
8. Ohio is fucked up right now. No way they'll swing Republican. No effing way.
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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:34 PM
Response to Original message
12. We don't need Ohio if we pick up CO, IA, NM, and the John Kerry states. We're still looking alright.
I look forward to seeing more polls, but if he's running this well immediately following a successful RNC, I think Obama's holding strong.
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Hope And Change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:46 PM
Response to Reply #12
45. You are right.Check out the prediction map below...
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Upton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:34 PM
Response to Original message
13. This sure doesn't look good
lets just hope this is all a product of McCain's convention bounce as this is as bad as it gets. I'm sure not happy with the way things are trending though.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:37 PM
Response to Reply #13
26. They Are All Pick Ems At McSame's Highest Point
It isn't that bad...

IMHO, we should write off Ohio if the numbers don't improve and focus on VA, FL, and CO...
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Connie_Corleone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #13
31. The Virginia numbers are corrected.
It's still a statistical tie in Virginia. Compared to last month polls, this isn't bad.
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Marsala Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #13
37. It's actually pretty good except for Ohio
This was taken right at the convention bounce and Obama is close, even or ahead in all critical states but Ohio.
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Hope And Change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:35 PM
Response to Original message
14. Ahem...
"Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 7, 2008."
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lolamio Donating Member (494 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:35 PM
Response to Original message
16. Virginia is wrong. It is 49-47 McCain up 2.
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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:35 PM
Response to Original message
18. Your VA Number is off by TEN. VA is 47/49 McCain. Not 47/59!
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secondwind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:36 PM
Response to Original message
20. We need Michigan!!!!!!!!!!! Am s eriously thinking of dropping everything, and flying
over there and camping out with folks and working my 61-yr-old a** for Obama until election.

But I have a trip to Brazil 10/8-10/18, and Vermont 10/26-11/3............so, instead of coming home on 11/3, I will hop over to NH and give them my best!
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secondwind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:36 PM
Response to Original message
22. We need Michigan!!!!!!!!!!! Am s eriously thinking of dropping everything, and flying
over there and camping out with folks and working my 61-yr-old a** for Obama until election.

But I have a trip to Brazil 10/8-10/18, and Vermont 10/26-11/3............so, instead of coming home on 11/3, I will hop over to NH and give them my best!
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Frumious B Donating Member (282 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:36 PM
Response to Original message
23. Check your link. Virgina is 49-47 McBush, not 59-47.
You're liable to cause some messy spills, broken laptop keys and maybe even a heart attack or two with that typo.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:37 PM
Response to Original message
24. FIX THE VA NUMBERS! OBAMA IS ONLY DOWN TWO THERE!
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DCBob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:37 PM
Response to Original message
25. If that FL is for real that is huge!
A FL win covers a multitude of loses. Don't need OH, VA or CO. Obama just needs to carry the Kerry states plus FL and game over.
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Sugarcoated Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:47 PM
Response to Reply #25
50. Joan Walsh said on Race for the Whitehouse
that the reason they have Hillary down there doing several appearances could be because Palin's crazy religeous beliefs in regards to Israel, the Jews for Jesus thing, it could make the Repub ticket vulnerable down there. And now it's tied.
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DCBob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:30 PM
Response to Reply #50
65. Excellent! Hard to believe the Jewish vote might send Obama to the WH!
Shalom!
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Upton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:38 PM
Response to Original message
29. Your Pa. number is wrong too
according to the link Obama has lost ground...3%
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Marsala Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:38 PM
Response to Original message
30. Florida is in much better shape than Ohio
Almost nobody expected that, right? At this point, Ohio looks like a lost cause. Florida OTOH is definitely winnable, especially with Palin to scare the Jewish population.
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secondwind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:39 PM
Response to Original message
33. I still feel that FL is very much in play..........wait til the Clinton Factor kicks in
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d_b Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #33
40. wait until
African Americans find out they're felons, or not registered, and all that fun stuff.

We can't depend on Florida.
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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:40 PM
Response to Original message
34. Rasmussen state #s are consistently higher for McCain than other polls - and showed no natl bounce.
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 05:40 PM by JoeIsOneOfUs
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woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:41 PM
Response to Original message
38. Florida is very encouraging!
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 05:43 PM by woolldog
If Obama can sneak by in Florida and wins PA it's over. He wins!

In that scenario he could lose Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire and he would still win.
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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:49 PM
Response to Reply #38
53. Wow, I didn't realize that. Are you sure he wouldn't atleast need NH?
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woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:55 PM
Response to Reply #53
57. I'm positive!
see for yourself:

http://www.270towin.com/
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ShadowLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:41 PM
Response to Original message
39. Are you sure those are all really post convention?
Some of those polls looks like before either convention happened (like Colorado, Florida).

The only two polls that look like realistic convention bounce you have there are Ohio (otherwise +7 for either of them is too high), and PA (Obama has had a decent lead there over McCain all year).
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:45 PM
Response to Reply #39
44. Yes all 5 polls were done on Sept 7th per the article.
Yes all 5 polls were done on Sept 7th per the article.

Now the older polls were OLD. Over month old for some states. So they aren't measuring just the convention bounce.
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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:42 PM
Response to Original message
41. Jewish people, latinos, NASA, and old people in Florida probably don't care much for Palin.
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 05:43 PM by malik flavors
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woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:46 PM
Response to Reply #41
48. Read my post two posts above.
If Obama wins Florida and PA, this election is over!
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DCBob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:28 PM
Response to Reply #48
64. Yes, FL is BIG! These results are very promising.
It means McPalin's bounce was regional and not felt all across the country in all states.
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:43 PM
Response to Original message
42. Sorry about the typos.
Sorry about the typos.

Anyone looking at the article can tell it is horrible layout was trying to get it in quick before someone else posted it.
Everything should be correct now.
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Hope And Change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:50 PM
Response to Reply #42
54. No worries.It seems to be correct now.
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harry_pothead Donating Member (752 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:47 PM
Response to Original message
49. We don't need OH.
With Gore+Kerry's original 264 we only need ONE of NV, CO, OH, or VA to win.

NV makes 269, but it's a win with us having the HoR.
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lolamio Donating Member (494 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:48 PM
Response to Original message
52. This is a Fox/Rasmussen poll. I feel very, very encouraged if these are the results.
Edited on Mon Sep-08-08 05:48 PM by lolamio
We are in good shape!
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The Stranger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:52 PM
Response to Original message
55. It all comes back down AGAIN to Florida.
God damn it.
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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:26 PM
Response to Reply #55
63. we don't need Florida if we win CO, IA, NM, and John Kerry's states. We're still good.
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:55 PM
Response to Original message
56. remember each of these polls took place during McCain's bump after convention.
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mvd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:57 PM
Response to Original message
58. Don't give up on OH
A poll had Obama up there just days ago. Could be a post Repuke convention outlier:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/
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Teaser Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 05:59 PM
Response to Original message
59. Ras has been bad on ohio all along.
He has been very much off from the median values, IIRC.
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Scooter24 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:22 PM
Response to Original message
61. The easiest states to win will be CO and NH...
But Ohio hasn't favored Republicans in a while given all the drama coming out of that state.

Florida is very encouraging but it's going to be a very tough fight.

Looking at the polls, I would split my time and $$ as such:

65% OH, MO, WI, MI, PA, NH, and CO.
15% MN, NC, and FL.
20% CA, OR, and WA.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 07:24 PM
Response to Reply #61
70. CO Springs Will be a Problem for CO
They'll be raising dead people back life to vote for Palin in CO Springs.
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:24 PM
Response to Original message
62. MoE of 4.5%?????
Taken over the past few days????

Bullshit does not even begin to describe these polls. Especially when you see they were paid for by Faux Snooze.
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bushisanidiot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:34 PM
Response to Original message
66. Palin is still new. She and McCondo are bound to have a major gaffe each before
October. The repukes will turn on McCondo the more he talks about "bi-partisanship".
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rockymountaindem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:38 PM
Response to Original message
67. That's great news
All we need is to hold PA, NH and carry Colorado and we've won. That's assuming that Iowa and New Mexico are solidly in our column, which they seem to be.

I think it is not unreasonable to suspect that we will lose the popular vote, however.
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wolverinez Donating Member (287 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:39 PM
Response to Original message
68. Very nice poll results.
nm
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GrizzlyMan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-08-08 06:39 PM
Response to Original message
69. Ohio must be full of masochists
They love seeing jobs leaving their broken down old state, they love economic suffering, but as long as 'Murica is protected and a fundie church is on every corner it's all good It's quite sad.
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