Electoral Map Looks Very Good

Despite some of these post-convention polls that ignore all the newly registered democrats and cell-only users, the electoral map is looking good.

To win, we need Gore+Kerry's original 264 -- that's all the stats that voted for Gore in 2000 or Kerry in 2004 or both -- plus ONE of five swing states: NV, CO, OH, VA, and FL. NV by itself will bring us to 269, but that's a win with us in control of the HoR.

/*The original 264*/

PA -- PA's close now, but that's including the bounce polls. But Biden's a big strength there. Also in 2004 despite close polls, with some that had Bush ahead, PA was called for Kerry pretty early in the night.

NH -- We had a 7% deficit in voter registration there in 2004 -- 25% to 32% -- but NH has a large independent population that trends strongly trends democratic that broke 56-42 for Kerry with a full 1% for Nader. I don't know what it's going to be like this year. I suspect that some of the dem leaning independents in 04 will be fully registered democrats this year, making the independent vote appear closer this time around. In fact, we are expected to close the registration gap completely this election. While some of that is from dem leaning independents from last election cycle and other NH independents may be taken in my McLame's "maverick" message, lots of the new registered dems are new voters in a state that's been trending bluer and bluer.

MI and Minn -- Kerry won by 3 points in both states. Also in 2004, dem registration was 5 points higher than gop registration -- 39% to 34%. It's going to be even more this year for sure. Despite some of the Repug and MSM talk of MI being a swing state, they're not going to overcome a 7-8%+ voter registration deficit in a state that's voted dem in the last 4 elections. Furthermore, just because Kerry was able to overcome NH's 7% deficit doesn't mean McCain will be able to the same for MI or MN. MI and MN both have 27% independents, whereas NH has a whopping 44%. McLame would need 65%+ support of independents there. That's not going to happen. MI and MN are ours.

IA and WS -- Obama's popular there and has excellent ground game, especially in IA. We have these too.

NM -- Split state that went for Bush in 04, but is trending back to the dems. Big latino population who are breaking for Obama BIGTIME this election -- around high 60s for Obama to high 20s for McCain last time I checked. I could be wrong, but NM has a majority latino population. If not, it's very close. Bush did relatively well with latinos in 04 which allowed him to barely eke out NM. Not going to happen for the GOP this time. The racism directed at Obama pretty much shot that prospect out of the sky. That and the anti-immigration rhetoric.

All the rest like CA and NY are obviously locks.

The only one of these I can see us possibly losing is NH, and even that's pretty unlikely. Even if we lose it, all it means is NV won't pull us over the top. Any of the other 4 swing states still will.


/*The Five Swingers*/

CO -- Our best chance of the 5 IMO. CO's been trending dem especially strongly, and we had our convention there. Obama even gained there in the polls over the weekend during the same time that McCain got a supposed bounce.

NV -- State where I live. I've seen a few Obama stickers around and no McCain ones. I've seen pretty much all McCain ads for the last 2 months until this morning when I heard an Obama ad on the radio for the first time. It was about McCain's support for overturning Roe and a clip of him saying he's in favor of a constitutional amendment banning abortion. It's refreshing to hear it after listening to McBush ads non-stop. Las Vegas is a fast growing town with lots of young people, and **LOTS** of cell-only users who are underrepresented in NV polls. None of my friends that don't live with their parents have a land line. I understand that's anecdotal, but it's probably still relevant given the demographic here. Obama has a decent shot here. (we need NH for NV to be sufficient)

OH -- TBH I'm a little pessimistic about OH. Part of OH is in the OH-KY-WV tri-state area in Appalachia, which has alot of racists. The fundy factor is stronger in OH compared to CO or NV -- which is probably why Palin gave McCain a decent bump there. IMO we ought to make his pandering to the religiousright stick -- we can't let him speak out of both sides of his mouth by playing the fundy card to the religiousright in OH and the maverick card in NV and CO. Thankfully, after hearing the Obama ad this morning that I mentioned earlier, I don't think we are. We only need one of the 5 states. If McCain uses the fundy factor to win OH but we're able to use it against him to win CO or NV, we win the election. (btw we're also going to win NH if this happens -- they're not too fond of fundies there either)

VA -- Another formerly red states that's been trending blue. All the new democratic voters in Northern Virginia are helping big time. VA has a big vet population though, which McCain is using his POW status to appeal to. We need hammer out the ads and talking points about McCain voting against vets. We shouldn't shy away from this -- it would put him on the defensive on military issues. There's also the appalachia and confederate factor, particularly in the western part of the state. I lived in Lexington for 3 years (voted for Jim Webb when I was there I'm proud to say) before moving to Vegas last year -- I saw it myself. A recent poll by SurveyUSA has us 2 points down there but it includes post-convention bounce and uses a likely-voter model. Mark Warner, a very popular former governor, is running for senate with a 20 point lead. He may help pull Obama up, especially if he stumps for him which seems likely given his comfortable lead.

FL -- TBH I don't know much about FL, except that a poll just came out having them tied 48%-48% there. Maybe someone else can talk about it.



We only need ONE of the five swing states. That's the big factor here. McCain's post convention bounce only helped him in OH. It didn't do much of jack for him in the other 4 states. According to polls, 29% say Palin made them more likely to vote for McCain compared to 21% who said less likely. But you have to consider where those voters are. The ones who said more likely are religious righters most of whom live in bible belt states that are already strongly for McCain. The only swing state with alot of pro-Palin fundies is OH, hence his bounce there. What about the 21% who say less likely -- alot of them are independents in CO, VA, and NV.

One more thing -- just because you don't see dem talking points on the national MSM doesn't mean you aren't hearing them in ads in swing states. If what I heard this morning is any indication, we'll be hearing more of them here in Vegas. Keep that in mind.

I'm new to DU and this is my first substantial post. Greetings to you all. OBAMA/BIDEN 2008.

:hi:

(on edit: Great analysis!)

:rofl:

As usual, the truth is on our side. All McCain did by picking Fundy Barbie was make a few red states redder. Picking Lieberman might have been a game-changer, but all this pick has done is gotten everyone talking about what a dumbass pick it was, 24/7. The more people learn about Failin, the more they are turned off by her (in a totally non-sexual way).

Excellent post.