What's up with New Mexico?

McCain is ahead now...


For the first time all year, John McCain has topped Barack Obama in a New Mexico poll. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows McCain attracting 49% of the vote while Obama earns 47%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_presidential_election

That's real bad news.

The convention bounce was probably in effect.

don't sweat it

I'd take that more than Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen. I don't even think a bounce could make it that close.

The spread over registered voters in that poll was just McCain +4.

Gore only narrowly edged Bush there in 2000. Bush only narrowly edged Kerry in 2004.

The race is effectively tied at the moment, thanks to the GOP convention bounce, and the NM poll reflects that.

In 2006 the New Mexico exit poll indicated 24% self-identified liberals. Once a state reaches that number it's more in our camp than outside. It was an excellent sign, but barely mentioned.

Plus, in 2004 Kerry rightfully should have won New Mexico. I disagree that Ohio actually voted for Kerry but with proper vote counting methods in New Mexico, that state should have been won.

And if Kerry actually won a state in a year with a 2.46% Bush edge nationally, that state is blue in a 50/50 environment.

But your basics are absolutely correct. If there has been a national move toward McCain, then New Mexico wasn't immune. It's what I posted yesterday in the Widgets thread, amidst question why there was a big move on the New Mexico trading price. You can't be a dunce and wait for a state poll. If there's a national tide you can look at individual states and determine which trading prices are off. New Mexico is still trading in our favor but it had reached a huge Obama favoritism, roughly 75%. In a race that's tied nationally, that 75/25 price was out of line.

It's been that close.

In New Mexico, the Republican votes are concentrated in the southeast corner of the state around Hobbes (oil country). Democratic votes are in Santa Fe and Albuquerque.

In 2000 it snowed in the southeast corner and Bush lost by a few hundred votes. In 2004, it was muddy but not snowy and Bush won by a few hundred votes. It's been that close there.

i hope he has taken care of it

places

margin of error. Let's look at the polls coming out later in the month or in early October before we start panicking. Seriously back away from the polls.

I have been counting on New Mexico---we have to have them

It's ScottyRazz. Disregard.

I'd bet money they've upped the number of Republicans they surveyed.

It won't be as close as in 04' and Obama has registered a lot more voters than McCain.

Took two years, so even if Richardson had said yes to a recount (which he/DNC wouldn't do), still difficult to find. We wanted NM to be a test to prove pattern.

You can checkout any time you like, but you can never leave!