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I have a theory about the polls. See what you think.

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JohnnyRingo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-11-08 01:25 PM
Original message
I have a theory about the polls. See what you think.
A couple months ago, when Obama was kicking ass with a huge double digit lead, I saw a news story that explained that when the polls included only likely voters, the race was a dead heat.

The report went on to explain that younger voters, like the ones who registered in large numbers to support Obama, were historically "not likely to show up on election day". Recently, I saw another report that these 18-26 year olds were now polling as even less likely to vote this election than earlier in the summer.

Since the revelation back in July that the race would be nearly tied when counting only likely voters.... the polls have been closely tied.

Now... I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but I know the newsies have a reason to want a close race to the finish, so I wonder if legions of young Obama supporters are being discounted as "unlikely" to keep ratings up for "The best Political Team On Television".

Even today on the local CBS news, the story in Ohio was that Obama took the lead "49% to 44% among likely voters" (Their words exactly).

In NASCAR races, in order to keep the fans in their seats when a leader gets too far ahead of the pack, they quickly find "debris" on the track and bring out the yellow flag. This bunches up the field, and creates an exciting shoot out at the finish line.

Cable news knows what NASCAR knows, if the race isn't close, viewers will change the channel to a football game.

Given all that, I hope the pollsters are wrong about younger voters, and I hope they don't become disillusioned or cynical and stay home on election day because they think their vote doesn't matter.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-11-08 01:28 PM
Response to Original message
1. There Are Polls Conducted By Democrats
There are polls conducted by Democrats like Peter Hart, Stanley Greenberg and Celinda Lake that we can use as benchmarks and all they all show a close race...
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Benhurst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-11-08 01:48 PM
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2. The fact that the election is close by any standard is disturbing.
The economy is in the tank, the present administration has stripped us of our sacred rights under the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and our foreign is not only inept, it is criminal.

Add to that a senile opponent with a running mate any sane person would admit was absurdly unqualified, even if she weren't mentally unbalanced. And can you imagine what the reaction would have been if Bill and Hillary had had a pregnant 17-year-old unmarried daughter join them on the stage at the Democratic Convention in 1996? The Party of Family Values has become a total joke; but no one seems to be laughing.

From the beginning many here have underestimated the fight we were going to have on our hands. There was talk earlier this year that Obama would be so far ahead the Republicans would have difficulty stealing the election. Not surprisingly, that has not turned out to be the case.

But as cynical as I am, I can not believe the McCain/Palin ticket hasn't gone down in flames.

We are entering the Twilight Zone.
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Sugarcoated Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-11-08 02:15 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. It depresses me to say it but I will
it's about the color of his skin. I suspected all along this would be a tight race due to race.
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quantass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-11-08 02:11 PM
Response to Original message
3. Very interesting
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