I think McCain is peaking early

Nixon, that consummate politician, used to say he would rather not peak in September but begin peaking in mid to late October. He knows what he is talking about. He led JFK in most polls in September but by October after the debates JFK began to move forward and won in a squeaker. (also in 1968 he led in September polls by 16-points against Humphrey but by mid October HHH was on the move and winded up losing by only 0.5% on election day).

I'm okay with Obama being tied or slightly behind at this point. There is a lot of campaign coming including four debates. The issues favor us particularly on domestic policy. I'm not a Pollyanna, but it's way too early to be overly concerned about our candidate being a couple of points down in tracking polls. Sooner or later McCain/Palin will run out of tricks. Palin will cease to be the object of fascination she currently is (I think her interview last night will help on that count) and Obama/Biden will benefit when issues take hold again.

I'm with Bill Clinton I think Obama will win and win easily.

I think it's a matter of time before the cat's out of the bag and McCain has nothing effective to say about benefitting the majority of americans. And before Palin makes clear to everyone (LIke the Gibson interview on ABC) that she doesn't know enough.

Before they really let loose on the McCain campaign?

Feels to me like they're deliberately holding back to gauge reactions and responses before they unleash hell.

The slew of Obama ads that I saw today are weeksauce, especially given the corrosive lies and untruths that. I see better attack ads that someone made on there PC that would be more effective.

I truly hope that Obama has his finger in the wind and will laugh a large fall-offensive when the time is right. I hope he knows what he is doing!!

I stressed in another thread not getting any attention that it's risky to get complacent. While the lies are fresh they need to tell the swing voters that the GOP has lied, will lie and continue to lie to you. Change remains in the background, but in the foreground:

"Eight more years of the truth, not four more years of lies." This should be the new theme from now on.

and a much lower floor than either McCain or Clinton on the issue of acceptability.

McCain's ceiling is probably about 48% in swing states. but Obama's ins more like 55%

If we didn't waste our days with nonsense, Obama would be ahead. I'm hoping the debates have a positive impact (I'm counting on Obama dominating because of his intelligence and ability to articulate). I like that he's bringing this back to McCain, but he needs to go after McCain's strengths, demonstrate that he's a liar.

since it was clearly so lame, but they decided to do it. The media wants a close election to keep ratings hyped.

and Obama's ads have been perfect. He is slowly turning up the steam and will hit McCondo with his knockout punch in the coming weeks.

He is reminding americans that Little Johnny McCain is nothing like the average american. He has 6 more houses than the rest of us, he doesnt' know how to use a computer like most of us do, he has servants who work in his mansions which NONE of us do.

Perfect strategy! Keep hitting 'em Barack! A thousand papercuts (jabs) followed by the knockout punch.

Just. Brilliant.


:)