At the end of the day, Palin's impact on the election will be minimal.

They got a bump but the excitement is waning based on the the steady drip drip... MOst of the enthusiasm is in the SOuth, which truthfully we were not going to win either.

The Mccain Strategy was to solidify the southern flank by insuring that the evangelical-fundamentalist vote got to the polls rather than simply sit on their hand. But the truth of it is they were going to vote for McCain regardless. But by shoring up the south they can spend money in the Battlegrounds and maybe pick up some Hillary supporters,

The problem is who they chose, Its increasingly clear that she is a neophyte and a dogmatist and on issues like Equal Pay and choice. she is diametrically opposed to the values that made Hillary an exciting candidate. Even if there is some gender based support, It is going to be offset by people who are concerned about her competence given McCain's age. Ultimately, the 15 percent of voters who are movable at this point are going to be risk-averse. So which is the more risky team?

If the election is framed for swing voters as ("New" + Gravitas + "Not Bush") vs. (Age + Inexperience + Bush) we will do fine.

Given the enthusiasm gap and given the greater risks regarding Palin when compared to Obama the impact might well be that the size of the pie increased but not the portions.