My State by State Election Projection update:McCain wins popular vote, Obama wins election

Keep in mind, folks, this is my projection of what would happen if the election was held today.

National M+2
Washington O+6
Oregon O+6
California O+13
Alaska M+22
Hawaii O+22
Idaho M+30
Nevada M+1
Utah M+35
Arizona M+9
Montana M+7
Wyoming M+25
Colorado O+1
New Mexico O+3
North Dakota M+9
South Dakota M+8
Nebraska M+19
Kansas M+18
Oklahoma M+32
Texas M+11
Minnesota O+7
Iowa O+8
Missouri M+6
Arkansas M+14
Louisiana M+16
Wisconsin O+6
Illinois O+16
Michigan O+2
Florida M+4
Mississipi M+15
Alabama M+20
Georgia M+14
South Carolina M+10
North Carolina M+9
Tennessee M+19
Kentucky M+18
West Virginia M+10
Virginia M+2
Indiana M+6
Ohio M+1
Pennsylvania O+4
Maryland O+14
Delaware O+9
New Jersey O+7
New York O+16
Connecticut O+18
Massachusetts O+14
Rhode Island O+22
Vermont O+26
New Hampshire O+3
Maine O+14
DC O+66

Toss Up States (within 3 percent): NV, CO, NM, MI, VA, OH, NH

Overall EV (with toss ups): Obama 238, McCain 227
Overall EV (no toss ups): Obama 273, McCain 265


And this is when McCain still has a bit of his convention bounce! Ha!

The oligarchy's selection of political polls, most of which do not even examine the thoughts of cell phone users, and thus leave out those under the age of thirty?

Or what?

Correct or incorrect, they show McCain ahead in popular vote because of a Convention\Palin bounce.

than a little plausible, to put it mildly - is that the polls are incorrect.

Yet, as with your first postulation, i.e. that they are correct, you gratuitously conjecture a "Convention/Palin bounce". If they show a "Convention/Palin bounce", even if incorrect, what value does that impute to the poll? Precisely, zero. Unless you're a mathematician and can countenance zero minus amounts.

"...Pretty much all the data we have". Well, I have extremely exiguous data on rocket science, but I wouldn't ascribe to much worth to them. They're kind of fuzzy.

but would love to see some evidence to the help prove the theory. I am hopeful this isn't a urban myth.

Are you not savvy enough to be able to impute compelling truth to overwhelming anecdotal evidence? You don't know the UK exists where maps say it does. But let it rest. Trust the cartographers.

Even though they're experts, and consequently might well not know their backside from their elbow in other matters. Well, you don't really have to accept their authority; just accept the anecdotal advice you hear. It will be more than adequate.

everyone 'knew' a pot of water boiled faster with the lid on
oddly- when someone actually checked the premise,it boiled just as fast without the lid.

The scientific method is a laughable gew-gaw in many issues of greater moment than a pot of boiling water.

A priori, inductive reasoning, reasoning from first principles, enabled Blackjack Kennedy to come out well on top when Wall Street first crashed, because it just seemed to him that there was something grievously wrong with the stockmarket, when the man who was cleaning his shoes was telling him which stocks to buy.

He didn't need a calculator, or reams of hard data; it was all too obvious to his common sense. However, we know that common sense is not so common, after all; that it is a great leveller, because it is not a notably characteristic gift of the educated. Which after all, is why we lurch from war to war, slump to slump, and continue to poison our world, even to today's diminishing colonies of the bumble bee. In Korea, they are already having to pollinate their crops by hand.

Meanwhile your journeyman scientist believes that he and his colleagues are the true Masters of the Universe - not the financial traders! - and tell us as much, at every opportunity. As for the religious thinkers, they're just fantasists to their minds. While the reality is that they are the real Dominionists, precipitating a planetary cataclysm in their quest for the materialists' sundry Holy Grails - and they don't even know it.

...phone owners are younger however that was not the case in my limited sampling. I had a number of people respond to an ad for an apt approx. equal number of young & old, almost all of them asked to be contacted on their cell.

I am hopeful the common sense is true in this case-

Them's the rules.

~

There are millions of voters who will not vote for a black man. Pure and simple, especially a Democratic black man.

Your analysis is a pretty close to worst case scenario. There are a couple of squeakers in there for Obama and I'd feel better if he had bigger lead in Michigan and Colorado. I hope and believe Obama has no where to go but up from this point on but I cannot discount the power of the Republican slime machine.

It'll be interesting to see republican reaction if your scenario comes true. How much you want to bet they trash the electoral college, say Obama is illegitimate, etc., conveniently forgetting what they preached in 2000.

Keeps their people in office.

Right now, Russia is giving the USA twenty one days to get its naval fleet out of the area around Georgia. And Russia is sending some of its navy to this hemispherre, perhaps to bolster Venzuela.

I'm sure we'd be hearing the "we won the popular vote" a lot more than we ever heard it after Bush won though.

the three states I see that will be most critical are NM, CO, and VA. Those are the battleground states I see Obama having the best chance of winning.

With all due respect, I don't see this trend of McCain ahead in the national polls. I just don't. Palin as a rock star will fade and people will focus on McCain and Obama.

I just don't see McCain winning that.

If McCain does maintain, and God forbid, increase the popular vote, I see close states tipping his way.

since by and large, the blue states contain heavily populated cities whose voters are underrepresented in the electoral college and the red states are less populous areas where the votes carry more weight.

In fact, is that even possible? Can you show a scenario where McCain could win the popular vote and lose the election? I don't believe it could ever happen.

Why don't you run some actual numbers using polling percentages, and voter turnout from the last election?

I include all except Zogby, because they really are shit. The latest poll is the one I give the highest weight. So, if a New York poll showed McCain up 5, but the previous 3-4 showed Obama up by 10, I'd say that New York was Obama+4. Ofcourse, nothing that drastic has happened in a poll...yet.