Perhaps I'm thinking about this wrong, but does "statistical dead heat" in the polls...

Curtland1015

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Sat Sep-13-08 06:22 PM
Original message

Perhaps I'm thinking about this wrong, but does "statistical dead heat" in the polls...

...mean we're winning?

Seeing as these polls don't count newly registered voters, and the VAST majority of those (what is is, 83% 87%?) are voting for Obama. should we assume in the event of a tie in the polls that we are in fact leading?

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Andy823

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Sat Sep-13-08 06:24 PM
Response to Original message

1. They also do not

Count those with only cell phones, and the ones who hang up on them when they call, which I expect is a fairly large number!

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still_one

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Sat Sep-13-08 06:25 PM
Response to Original message

2. shhhh, don't tell anyone. We are registering new Democrats in record numbers

In addition, cell phones are underrepresented in their polls along with the young

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patrice

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Sat Sep-13-08 06:25 PM
Response to Original message

3. ??? It means that we are losing, because Common Sense should be WAY further ahead than Crazy.

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FrenchieCat

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Sat Sep-13-08 06:28 PM
Response to Reply #3

7. Psssst.......

Not when you add "White Privilege" to the equation......then one realizes we are doing quite well.

http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/contributors/1755

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patrice

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Sat Sep-13-08 06:40 PM
Response to Reply #7

9. This country can expect to see a MAJOR loss of Young Talent to other countries if we "elect" McPalin

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Oceansaway

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Sat Sep-13-08 06:26 PM
Response to Original message

4. imo...the pollsters aren't reaching

newly registered voters cuz most people now-a-days have cell phones....

most new voters are Dems....

i'm hoping its a BLUE WAVE across my TV screen Nov.4th....

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Speck Tater

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Sat Sep-13-08 06:27 PM
Response to Original message

5. "Statistical dead heat" Means the Pugs and can steal the election again and get away with it.

It the polls showed a blowout in Obama's favor, they could not get away with stealing the election with rigged voting machines. But as long as they can keep the polls close, they can rig the machines and steal the election.

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patrice

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Sat Sep-13-08 06:27 PM
Response to Original message

6. Have you seen this!?!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3993261

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rock

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Sat Sep-13-08 06:35 PM
Response to Original message

8. If the polls are statistically sound

then they have already taken all those items into account. If they're not statistically sound, they're just made up numbers and do not reflect any reality. So the answer to your question is "no".

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DaveinMD

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Sat Sep-13-08 06:45 PM
Response to Original message

10. it could be

but there could also be some white voters lying to the pollsters about not voting for Obama.

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FrenchieCat

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Sat Sep-13-08 06:52 PM
Response to Reply #10

12. Could also be some White Voters lying about voting for McCain......

It doesn't appear to be damaging these days to find an excuse to vote for McCain....so I don't believe that what you are saying makes sense. Over the phone, there is no reason for a person taking a poll to lie. :shrug:

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DaveinMD

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Sat Sep-13-08 07:07 PM
Response to Reply #12

13. I don't understand the mentality

but its been prevalent in some past elections. Wilder in Virginia comes to mind. However, it didn't exist for Obama in the primaries, so that's good.

The average of the polls as McCain up one, so I'll assume that is the reality. For all the talk about Obama's ground game, the GOP has had a much better ground game in recent years. So its probably a push.

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samuraiguppy

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Sat Sep-13-08 06:49 PM
Response to Original message

11. just don't trust them

the polls are used to manipulate us.

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Double T

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Sat Sep-13-08 07:07 PM
Response to Original message

14. Polls, specially at this early stage in the actual election, are meaningless.

Assume nothing in polls or elections.

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HughMoran

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Sat Sep-13-08 07:17 PM
Response to Original message

15. It means we have work to do - no sitting on our fat asses waiting for someone else to do the work

That's what it means.

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