Obama is in the driver's seat.

This is the final lap of the election and Obama has seized control of the critical stretch between the end of the convention and the beginning of the debates. This is something John Kerry or Al Gore could not do, as both trailed Bush at this point four and eight years ago.

Four years ago next week, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/23/opinion/polls/main645322.shtml">Pres. Bush led John Kerry 51-42 in the same CBS/New York Times poll that currently shows Barack Obama up by 5-points. That lead would hold until the first debate, when Kerry came back and http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/04/opinion/polls/main647342.shtml">tied the race at 47. The horse race would continue until election night, where we all know what happened.

What this shows is that Obama is doing better today, by a wide margin, than Kerry was in 2004. It also shows that without his strong debate performance in the first debate, Kerry very well could have lost the '04 election in a landslide. However, the debate provided him an opening and he took it.

My prediction, Obama will be leading nearly universally when the first debate begins. In my mind, there are three scenarios that could happen:

1. Obama wipes the floor with McCain and builds on his lead, devastating McCain's chances and nearly wrapping up the election.

2. McCain does better than Obama and pulls even in the polls.

3. Neither set the world on fire, neither make grave mistakes and it's a wash, keeping Obama from expanding his lead and McCain from gaining ground.

Which one is most likely? Well I'd say 3 followed by 1 and then 2 a distant probability. I don't see McCain dominating the debates, but I also concede Obama is not a strong debater, but I also think he will do better than expected. Either way, Obama is now in the driver's seat and this is his election to lose. McCain's campaign is in total disarray and it's going to take a lot to get back its balance.

And he'll win, most definitely.

We must work hard, and beat the smears to death when the GOP throws the kitchen sink.

It's ours to lose. And we cannot lose.

We'll win. We must.

intelligence and innate honesty. Not to mention that smile of his.

his clock. McAngry may well lose it and stink up the joint.