Colorado, Colorado, Colorado!

This is what Tim Russert would have written on his chalk board on election day if he were still with us. It's all gonna come down to this state on the 4th. This will be the nail biter.

I think Obama's gonna carry the Kerry states, New Mexico, and Iowa, but Colorado is a straight toss-up. I don't think Obama's gonna get Florida, Ohio, Nevada, or Virginia.

Virginia is his second best chance to win it, but really it's gonna all be about Colorado.

I hope the polling coming out of this state starts to look more favorable for Obama, because I don't want to go into election night not knowing if he's going to win or not. That would be WAY to stressful.

But I thought Barack was expanding the map? That would include Indiana, Virginia, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, etc., etc.

If he wins the election and loses Ohio and Florida, i'd say he atleast reshaped the map.

He's within striking distance in all of them. Check out www.electoral-vote.com

But yes, I agree after Iowa and New Mexico, we win Colorado, we win the election!

campaign is even saying FL is winnable, and I'm sure you know they're pouring a lot of $$ into that effort.

... it will give you new hope for us winning that state. The figures are MIND BLOWING.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUAiGbNp8oI

I realize I'm being overly optimistic, but blowout in Florida ..... I'm callin' it now!!!! ;)

is decent in Virginia, it's still a state that will be hard to flip. It's been red for a very long time, and a lot of undecided voters there will probably vote republican when comes decision making time. It's just not as likely it will actually turn blue. Same thing goes for Indiana and Montana.

I think the African American turnout in Virginia will win that state for Obama. You just watch.

we'll have to see what the new state polling data says,especially now that Obama's national polling is on the rise and also the polling after the news on the economy sinks in, and unlike conventions these aren't things that are likely to melt away soon. So at this point I don't think we should box ourselves in too soon but rather react to the changing data, and I think many of the states you mentioned are still in play as of right now, and deserve resource allocation untill further polling data shows otherwise. I saw we keep them guessing in FLorida(latest CNN poll has them tied), Ohio(his numbers are bouncing back there) and Virgina(again I believe he's back to within two there, even NC could be in play. So as of now I think we should cede no ground, it'll also give the repubs fewer states to focus on in order to steal them (like they did when it all came down to florida in 2004, or Ohio in 2004). If we spread out our resources and keep them guessing, it'll make organized voter suppression all the more difficult for them. With Obma's very very large latino gap,(plus with richardson's help)

I feel relatively confident about New Mexico, and with many many polls having Obama ahead in Iowa (and also McCain's poor presence their from the primaries)I feel confident about that as well. That means all taht Obama has to do is pick off ONE of the following states, VA, FL, Ohio, NC, Colorado (nevada to make it 269). I'd much rather have spread out the money across all of these states and be willing to bet that McCain won't win EVERY one of them, then to focus resources on just Colorado, especially now that Palin has been picked and the McCain campaign would be able to focus their money on making the heavily evangelical colorado springs the difference maker (like Rove did in Ohio)

I think we should spread the republicans out, but at the end of the day I'm not sure yet if we'll actually carry them. It's a good strategy to play for them agressively, but whether or not they'll turn blue, I don't know.

but I have a feeling that at least ONE of these states will turn blue, although I'm not sure which one (perhaps it will be CO) So I think in aggregate, McCain will be playing more defense than Bush would have to,and if that continues to hold untill the 4th that alone would buoy my hopes coming into election day.

With the way things are looking in NM + IA - If Obama wins Colorado, he wins the election. This is why I get a little nervous at the thought of Obama spending $40m on FL, which is a gamble. I'm thinking this whole FL thing may be a head fake.

Using that in the west would almost guarantee his election.

So, who to trust, who to trust?

David Axelrod, whose machine took down the far-and-away front runner in the primaries and just leap-frogged the silly GOP convention bounce? Or tman, a poster who is a "little nervous?"

Hard choice...hard choice...

:rofl:

You don't place a 40 million bet on a less than 50% chance of success.

..especially when you don't need to.

:eyes:

If he loses what is going to be a "Very close race"

McCain is sliding all the way down the hill.

The election will be over by 10pm eastern time.

McCain is sliding all the way down the hill.

The election will be over by 10pm eastern time.

in which you show it.

" I don't think Obama's gonna get Florida, Ohio, Nevada, or Virginia."

You have decided what states Obama is not going to win that are swing states, 48 days prior to the election and before any debates?

Why do you know that the Obama campaign doesn't?
What makes you more knowledgable than they are? :shrug:

There's nothing wrong with that. It sparks debate and people discussing HOW to win those states.

I'm not sure that there is nothing wrong with that....
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6996468

Especially after a Dow drop of 800 points.

People that say we've got it in the bag could just as likely result in voters staying home, because of over confidence.

and i'm not stating anything as fact, how could I? This is just my opinion.

I don't like my information sugar coated and I don't like fluff.

Give me the numbers and let me know where we stand, is how I see things. If I thought we were gonna carry all of those states I would say it, but realisticly I (at this point in time) I'm not sure I see it.

If people can't handle unbiased predicitions, then i'm sorry. I'm just calling it like it see it.

If Obama's numbers start to improve in these other states then i'll be happy as hell, but right now this where I think it stands.

No sugar-coating, and no fluff. Just the facts.

your predictions change?

Do you take into consideration new voters registered, poll methodology, groundgame, and current events, or do you just go by how you feel after reading some polls?"

Just saying that any poll you are reading are about 2 days behind....and they have done nothing but shift back and forth since the race has become a 2 man race. So why do you give those states to McCain?......it is like you have no faith in Obama and much faith in McCain. Personally, McCain is the worst candidate since Bob Dole. The only thing he's got going for him at this point is that he is a White man who was a POW 35 years ago.

But the MSM loves your kind...because all they need is to highlight just the right poll at just the right time. It has worked in the past, and I guess for some, they will help it work in the future.

previous presidential elections, results in midterm elections, where Democrats have won in recent years that is a relatively new phenomenon (ex. VA, CO), where black candidates have had some success (since Obama is black), where the VP's could come into play, states with struggling economies, etc., etc.

Obviously there's no telling what could happen in the future, so this is where I think it stands right now. How could I just say somebody is going to win without knowing the events that might take place between now and election day? I'm not into blind optimism.

I had faith that the Jets were going to beat the Patriots last weekend and we saw how that turned out. If you want to put Obama over the top I suggest you start taking the numbers more seriously and volunteer, phone bank, and then GOTV if you want him to carry these states.

Nothing wrong with being cautious.

This thing will be over by the time the polls close west of the Mississippi.

Who're you kiddin'?

Guara-damn-teed!

Long before Obama, Ohio has been the site of cliff-hanger elections. I think of the Gilligan-Rhodes gubernatorial race, and the Carter-Ford squeaker there.

Gore's internal polling showed an uphill climb in Ohio so he pulled out of it, effectively conceding the state to Bush in year 2000 -- and even then only lost by 3.4%.

With a Democratic governor and Sec. of State in place in Ohio this time, I think there will be plenty of voting machines and far shorter lines in Cuyahoga County.

If recent polling is correct, Barack Obama is tied or within the margin of error in Indiana, a state that has gone decidedly Republican in recent memory. McCain would have to be reflecting roughly the same percentage of support that Dubya enjoyed in Indiana in 2000 and 2004 to be optimistic about his chances of being our next president.

When Obama is doing as well as he is doing in Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado, it is a worrisome portent for McCain's chances and a damned good portent for us.

Obama/Biden also leads in New Mexico and even more convincingly in Iowa -- both Bush states in 2004.

Those are the ones I'm concerned about, since I have liberal family and friends living there but I know they are right-wing counties. Denver is a shoe-in for Obama, though.

I mean Betsy Markey is definitely on the path to an upset, and Mark Udall is going to join the Salazar Bros. and Bill Ritter in winning for sure. If Obama does "well" that could help his chances. He's going to win Denver big, you're right about that.

the states you mentioned.

I highly doubt this election will come down to Colorado.

Virginia elected Douglas Wilder and Jim Webb. Demographically they are getting more blue every day. I think Obama will take Virginia in a squeaker.

Ohio's vote-rigging apparatus has been largely dismantled. I think Kerry really took it in 2004, and Obama will take it in November.

Even Indiana and Montana are looking close. West Virginia's a squeaker now. State-by-state, McCain has to run the table. Obama doesn't have to rely on Colorado but it will be important.

and the latest polls in OH and VA show Obama ahead. And tied in FL? Why can't he win???????

I ask because I think Barr will depress McCain's vote totals there and hand that Kerry state to Obama as well. McCain is popular in New Hampshire but Barr could draw just enough support to drain McCain there and hand Obama the win -- and the sweep of New England.

And we'll come close enough in Florida for it to be a moral victory.

FL and/or NV, hard to call. NC would be wonderful, but I have my doubts. CO I think is a real possibility.

The idea that CO is the answer, and that OH should be given up on, though, is ridiculous.

In '04 I thought Kerry was doing reasonably well... but then suddenly felt a sort of right wing disconnect through stuff in the press. "Don't change leaders mid-stream" kind of stuff. The wars aren't touch and go anymore though. Katrina, and to some extent Ike, have happened. Georgia, and the inability to do anything about it. Anyone capable of thinking about it can see that Ahmadinejad can thumb his nose at the US with relative impunity. The financial markets are in collapse (ironically, exactly the way bin Laden beat the Soviets... maybe GWB has actually LOST the war on terror....).

The only thing that the Repubs have left is the "vote with god, and against those godless commie hippy equal rights for non-whites fuckers" argument. The bigot vote, and the don't tax me to support "them" rich-bigot vote, and the don't regulate me just to save the economy vote... and.. well, the list seems particularly thin this time through.

Then there's Obama's coolness. He keeps his cool, while McCain keeps trying to wildly flail his way to some sort of instant win. There's desperation there. There's fear.
So, just keep cool... keep on with it... and when it's all said and done, then look up at the scoreboard.
That's the essence of the "groundgame".
Meanwhile.. the McCain campaign will have wasted all it's time trying to explain the intricacies of the Screen Pass play, or maybe the Bootlegger Reverse, to Palin.