So where does Obama really stand now?

A few random questions:

On one hand, national polls seem to suggest either a virtual tie or that McBush is slightly ahead of Obama. On the other hand, posts here indicate that they are biased polls and that Obama in fact has a significat lead. Biased polls and false info aside, where does Obama really stand now?

And another off-topic question, since it looks like Colorado will be a major swing state this time, what are the chances of Obama winning Larimer and Jefferson counties? Denver is a shoe-in for Obama, but I know both of these counties (especially Larimer) are pretty right-wing. Could they go blue this time even so?

The New Reuters and CBS/NYTIMES POlls show Obama ahead. And the Gallup tracking has him ahead

...still has McCainiac one point ahead.

Everything's a tongue in cheek guesstimate, too much is subjective to be sure about anything except, perhaps, trends and mini-momenta.

Especially this year, with race and gender having a part in what voters may actually do in November, no one knows anything concrete.

These polls randomly call people and then use calculations to figure out if they will actually go out and vote for someone they support. They don't call cell only households and people like me don't answer random 800 -866 etc numbers because I don't like being sold to and don't have anything left to give to charitable causes because my donations are all taken for the moment.

Then I also keep looking at the numbers of new registered voters & turnout. Newly registered voters are doing this because they intend to vote and people who actually show up at events are the kind who will show up to vote.

So every where Obama goes he attracts crowds in the 10's of thousands and McCain had to bus people in from 10 states to get less than 20 thousand for the RNC.