Which red state is most likely to turn blue this year?

I'm leaving out Iowa because I think that's a done deal.

if they don't, we're so screwed

We never get mentioned as in the rust belt, as the midwest, and now not even a red state.

Good point.

I lived in the great evil city of Chicago. But worked downtown and knew people who worked there and lived in Indiana..taking the train in to downtown.

There's some bleed over. I wonder how the midwest folk feel about all the talk about the corrupt politics of Chicago?

otherwise I don't hear much. I'm in North Central IN. In the middle of small town nowhere!

My home state - largely because of the ever increasing population in Clark County (where Las Vegas is located).

And we are working our butts off to flip VA. Given that NC is starting to turn blue, I think Virginia will be ours. I've also heard that having a Democratic governor AND Mark Warner (D) running for Senate will definitely activate the Democratic machine in Virginia.

However, I have no idea how much ground is being gained in other states. For example, there is a HUGE effort to flip PA. They are hemmed in with an Obama state and a Hillary state... and I think New Jersey is blue as well. They have 20+ electoral votes, so I'm hoping we can work the miracle there.

Those folks are fed up.

I actually think New Mexico was blue in 2004, but was stolen.

Landslide.

Virginia?

Or PA?

All of the information I'm hearing says that PA is not warm to Obama, and if it was blue before, it's not guaranteed to be blue in November.

Went Kerry in 04 and Gore in 00 ...

Just threw Rick Santorum, the third highest ranking R senator out after he spent more on a senate race than anyone in history. D governor in Rendell.

The whole Pa does not like BO thing is a media driven narrative that got WAY overplayed in the 6 week dead period for primaries in the runnup to PA. The whole Hill is the working class hero and BO can't connect with working class meme got started there, and Hill did win the primary, and the media has not let go of it since, saying Pa was a "swing" state, despite the above AND:

There was a recent poll that BO and McCain tied in Pa, but prior to that no other poll had McCain closer than 4 down, and the average of all polls was BO up at least 6 points.

Pa had a MASSIVE influx of new Ds from the primary to now, something like 250,000, and something like 80,000 Rs have turned I or D. LOTS of colleges have been tapped into for BO, the Philly area. Again, Rendell is a strong D governor, and finally, this is the one state where Biden has some electoral juice - his media market is the Philly area, and he was born in Scranton.

I have said this all along, IF BO were to lose PA, it won't be a "swing" it will have been a complete and total washout across the board. Pa is his unless things go VERY, VERY bad.

Had it in the first iteration, but lost it as others were added. Good news is, we have so many ways to change the map.

surrounded with love

NC may be the toughest....

:patriot:

But if I have to choose just 3 of the above, I'll go with NM, CO and OH

Palin's yutzy dirty laundry is killing her. As it stands, the only reason Alaska isn't already a blue state is due to voter apathy. This shit will get them moving, i think.

It was already blue in the partisan index in 2004, and Kerry would have won with competent voting machinery.

In the 2006 exit poll, New Mexico had 24% self-identified liberals. That's a very strong number and in general would take it out of swing state territory. I won't go that far, but let's just say I'd be shocked if we lost New Mexico, provided Obama stays within about 2 points in the national popular vote.

didn't it vote Bush last time around?

And isn't it almost a lock for Obama at this point?

Personally, I think all those states are going to flip, call me crazy, but I think maybe even a few more not on that list.

I honestly think the blowout will be one of the biggest in this countries history.

edit to say: OOPS!!!! just realized we were already calling Iowa a done deal.

I think Chuckie T over at MSNBC is calling New Mexico a done deal.

Nevada or Colorado go, the election is a done deal. (nice)

Very marginally for W in 2004. But I think it'll be blue in November.

The first two because of changing demographics, the latter due because of the horrific job losses in the manufacturing sector.

Both at, plus one of:
NV, OH (75% for at least one of the 2)

Plus a reasonable chance of one of:
FL, NC, VA, MT (50% for at least one of the 4)

With a realistic, if low, chance in the following states:
IN, WV, AK, AZ (25% for at least one of the 4)

I plan on making it between now and November.

With substantial increases in our majorities in both chambers of the 111th Congress as well.

Indiana is the steepest climb of the states in your poll but as we've seen tonight, Obama is now slightly ahead.

Between the total Bush Crime Family corruption and the so-called Democrats who despise anything not controlled by the DLC, that state is a lost cause.

New Mexico and Colorado are probably the most likely. Virginia has a good chance. Ohio? Hard to say, because I'm not sure what team Strickland's on, but at least Blackwell isn't there.

we may possibly take all of them this election. IN may be a bit of a stretch imho, but perhaps not this year. If I had to pick three specifically, I would pick NV, NM, and CO.

a rep from O's campaign, think his name was Tim Burton? or something similar...was NOT very articulate on lou dobbs today

granted, dobbs is bad news

but---this O rep was getting msm coverage and basically squandering it

he tried to explain what O would do to solve the current financial crisis----granted an unfair and impossible question----

but he hemmed and hawed and said 'you know' about 10 times without really saying anything

so i said Colorado.

Even NC, my adopted home state.

Mark.

We've had a Democratic governor for nearly a decade and we're about to have all Democratic senators. The youth vote has a real good chance of swinging it for Obama, as will Mark Warner's presence on the ballot.

It's going to be close. There's still a lot of good old boys in this state, but they've been quickly finding themselves and their views irrelevant.