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Duppers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:22 AM
Original message
Today's Simple Election Map
Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 06:34 AM by Duppers

Strong Dem (143)
Weak Dem (45)
Barely Dem (55)
Exactly tied (21)
Barely GOP (90)
Weak GOP (23)
Strong GOP (161)
270 Electoral votes needed to win


Obama 243
McCain 274
Ties 21

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Unfortunately it's the ELECTORAL VOTES that count.



We must work harder folks.
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Curtland1015 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:24 AM
Response to Original message
1. Some of these states are flipping over to us as we speak.
We may not SEE it for a week or so, but it's happening!
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terrya Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:28 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. I agree.
And they're not factoring in the horrible economic news, which in polls people by a wide margin say Democrats are better at handling the economy than Republicans. And Obama/Biden will do VERY well in getting the message that they are more concerned about average Americans and the economy than Republicans.

BTW: that map today...no way, no how do I see Illinois being "weak Dem". That's just crazy talk.
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Duppers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:57 AM
Response to Reply #1
16. thank you !
Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 07:19 AM by Duppers
I'm still hopin'

I know the polls have turned in the last 2 days.

Holding my breath and furiously emailing. Going to a ph bank on Sunday too.
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blondeatlast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 08:14 AM
Response to Reply #1
22. Yup; many of those strong reds aren't strong red anymore; even my state Arizona. nt
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Marsala Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:26 AM
Response to Original message
2. State polls are already out of date
The situation is changing VERY rapidly. Colorado will be blue soon, with Virginia, Ohio, and even Florida and Indiana as tossups or better.
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Jersey Devil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 02:39 PM
Response to Reply #2
31. Agree, they seem to lag behind nat'l polls by a week or two
That's always been my experience anyway.
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Duppers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:27 AM
Response to Original message
3. again, it's the ELECTORAL VOTES that count
and not the popular polls.

:banghead:


If you know ANYONE in a battleground state, please email them or call them. Make sure they're voting....for Obama.
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ColbertWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:27 AM
Response to Original message
4. I don't understand Oregon and Washington, I mean, WTF!? n/t
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DeeDeeNY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:33 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. And Illinois should be dark blue
Very strange
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dems_rightnow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:48 AM
Response to Reply #7
13. Illinois
ARG released a poll showing a 6 point Obama lead. I suspect it's an outlier. Illinois is definitely not a swing state.
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Duppers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 07:00 AM
Response to Reply #13
17. keep giving me positive facts
I'm trying to keep from panicking or worse...
being inconsolably depressed.
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jody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:30 AM
Response to Original message
6. Gun-owners in FL(27) PA(21) OH(20) MI(17) will be targeted because our Dem platform promises to
reinstate the assault weapons ban and the House just passed a major rollback of DC gun laws that Feinstein threatens to filibuster in the Senate.
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Duppers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:39 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. it's god and guns again!
We have a failing economy,
highest gas prices,
no good, sustainable energy policy,
an occupation of a foreign country,
the highest debt and deficit spending in history, and
they've a candidate who wants to continue with the same!

Guns and God! :banghead:
What is Wrong with this country???
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jody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:44 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. My sentiments exactly except I would expand to "Guns and God and Gays". When, oh when will we
have open, honest, informed debates on critical issues like health care, economy, foreign policy, etc.?
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Dawgs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 07:02 AM
Response to Reply #9
18. I like your cartoon, but they should have used McCain's image.
Bush is a lame duck.
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Celebrandil Donating Member (254 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:33 AM
Response to Original message
8. State polls are later
The state polls are later, or at least sparser, than the national polls. Just after the conventions McCain had a bump and that's probably still shown in many state polls.
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Gman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:41 AM
Response to Original message
10. This may very well be the final count
Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 06:43 AM by Gman
People running around here are making plans to attend Obama's inauguration that more than likely will not happen. Sorry for the cold water, but I don't think it's looking good... and I've already been to the latest polls this morning over at CQ Politics. I'm not encouraged.

It may be hard, but you've got to look at the polling data objectively. Right now it does not look good for Obama and the trend is actually away from him. The biggest problem I see is that more Democrats than Republics say they could change their mind before election day. Not good at all.
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jody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:48 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. Gman, we are 2001 vintage DUers and I agree with you. See thread below on one issue.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=118&topic_id=186502&mesg_id=186502
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Gman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #12
32. I guess only a DU'er that was here in 2001
can understand why I feel this way. That election was stolen. It was a bonified right wing coup d'etat by any definition. We live under a revolutionary government. One thing we know about revolutionary governments is they don't just give up power.

And Israel hasn't even bombed Iran yet.
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dems_rightnow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:49 AM
Response to Reply #10
14. McCain got a nice convention bounce
But it's starting to fade in the polls now. This will come back into alignment.
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 07:16 AM
Response to Reply #10
19. I have looked at the data objectively
Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 07:19 AM by melody
How can you look at a clear uptrend with the current economic chaos and suggest it *doesn't* look good for us?
Democrats *always* say that they could change their minds before election day. We tend to be liberal thinkers.
Anything is possible. But we will not -- not with the current situation.

How can you take good data and make it bad? I'd be interested in seeing your analysis.

Never mind, I just remembered you're the "empty suit" guy that hates Obama. You want to be right more than you
want us to win.
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RC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:55 AM
Response to Original message
15. Maps like this are misleading.
People vote, land mass or area do not vote.
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demwing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 08:08 AM
Response to Original message
20. Dem pickups (vs. 2004): IA NM GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)
and we win...
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 08:10 AM
Response to Original message
21. The simple problem with your argument is the correlation between electoral votes and popular vote.
It is extraordinarily strong. State polling always lags national polling so come back to me in a week.
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Duppers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 08:37 AM
Response to Reply #21
23. Will do, gladly. But it's not MY "argument"
Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 08:52 AM by Duppers
I'm not trying to say we're not going to win. I know the state polls are changing every day.

But are you implying that the EV does not determine the presidential race?
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 08:56 AM
Response to Reply #23
25. No, but electoral votes correlate very strongly with popular vote nationwide.
EVs only really come into play when the race is close and one or two states might flip at the margins. If Obama has a 5 point lead like new polling seems to indicate, then there is not a chance in hell he loses the Electoral College. Not a chance.
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Duppers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 09:02 AM
Response to Reply #25
27. thanks
your confidence makes me feel much better.

I give you :hug: ;)
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 08:01 PM
Response to Reply #25
33. I Don't Think You Could Say That Enough
The last time there was a large discrepancy between the pop vote and the E.C. Vote was in 1876 and that election was rife with fraud and irregularities....
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chiefofclarinet Donating Member (516 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 08:50 AM
Response to Original message
24. "Simple" is right
I don't like electoral-vote.com . Its statistical analysis leaves a lot to be desired. It only looks at the most recent poll, even if it is an outlier. Therefore, there are no trends to speak of. We just see a map of the last poll in each state.

538.com is better. They use statistical simulations using all the polls to calculate the electoral vote. It shows trends, which is more important IMO. It still has Obama down, but the website itself says that this method takes time for electoral votes to change.
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baldguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 09:00 AM
Response to Original message
26. Posted w/o comment


Blue States are currently polling for Barack Obama

Red States are currently polling for John McCain

White States are currently tied

Safe States are states whose outcome we are at least 95% confident in. They are shown in the darkest color, while the remaining states are colored proportionally lightly.

(The above map totals only include "safe" states.)

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/
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Duppers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 09:05 AM
Response to Reply #26
28. THAT'S more like it!
gotta love Princeton!

A big THANKS, baldguy.

Would you consider in OP with this map?
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ColbertWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 02:36 PM
Response to Original message
29. Kick for more attention. n/t
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jazzjunkysue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 02:38 PM
Response to Original message
30. Ohio's blue, so, tip that 20 points and you're getting close: 263-254.
Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 02:38 PM by jazzjunkysue
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