Predictions-An Obama Win

Now that the bloom has come off the Palin Rose and we are closer to Dow 8,000 then we are to Dow 10,000 thanks to the Republicants' maladministration of the economy Obama will continue to rise in the polls...

States that lean Obama will become solidly Obama, toss up states will become lean Obama, solid Obama state will become more solidly Obama....States that lean McSame will become toss ups...

I still expect a close election but barring a major gaffe or Republicant manufactured foreign crisis (I wouldn't put anything past them miscreants) Senator Obama should win...


As an aside, I have never seen anything more ridiculous than the notion that state polls lag the national polls...They only lag because they are generally older...There aren't any state tracking polls that I am aware of ...In other words if there were polls taken in Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and Colorado yesterday they would show the same movement to Obama that the national polls show...

If you read about the great Muhammad Ali even he was scared of Sonny Liston...Fear ,and I would add fear of failing is a primary emotion...How we respond is what defines us...

So unless the election is fair and on the level this time, a "win" doesn't mean Obama will enter office next January.
I'm just sayin'

IMHO, I dislike Bush* as much as anybody but I don't think he stole 3,000,000 votes in 04...

Here's why --

2004 election problems state by state:
http://www.flcv.com/summary.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwWP-N1HqT0

At this point any more shocks to the system or tapes from Osama will only benefit the Dems. The GOP credibility on anything and everything is approaching zero. Any manufactured crisis that the GOP can come up with will only help the Dems. The GOP has been officially relegated to the Southern racist and ignorant party.

The vast majority of Americans are not buying....

Well... it looks quite bright right now. McCain is making a fool of himself, Biden is more entertaining than anything on Saturday Night Live, Palin's last fan seems to be Hannity and like the Silver Surfer Obama avoids all dangers. However... there can be a whole lot of mines and swift boats lurking just around the corner. I remember four years ago. Things might change rapidly.

Please, we've seen the polls gyrate back and forth. Pay no mind. Donate, call, volunteer, whatever suits you. Don't stop until we have the President-elect that we want.

If it did drop to 8000 it would be a world wide economic catastrophe.

And I think there is a better chance it will go to 8,000 then 11,000...

BTW, the Nikkei, which was one of the hottest equities markets on the planet in the 80's went from 40,000 to 10,000 and is still closer to 10,000 than 40,000 or even 20,000...

The Dow has alread shed over 3,000 points...

If you believe that 10,609 is closer to 8000 than to 10,000, so be it.

That's not in dispute...

What is in dispute is the trajectory of the DOW...

Tell me, did you think the Nikkei would go from 40,000 to 10,000?

Your statement is incorrect.

But if you want to call your broker and buy Dow 11,000 futures this morning please do not let my pessimism deter you...

But I did notice that when your mistake was noted, you tried to change the subject rather that to correct an obvious mistake.

That would be , well, dishonest...

You are arguing on a parallel track...IMHO, there is a better chance we will see Dow 8,000 than Dow 14,000... There is nothing I see on the horizon that would make me change my opinion...


on edit- I just noticed...I did make a mistake...I meant Dow 14,000 which is where it was at before the recent unpleasantness...

That is your statement. That statement is obviously incorrect.

The statement really didn't make sense...Thanks for noticing...

What I meant to say is we are closer to Dow 8,000 than Dow 14,000...IMHO, there is a better chance we see Dow 8,000 than Dow 14,000....