INDIANA: Obama 47, McCain 44. Bush won this state by 21 percent in 04.

Sen. Barack Obama holds a tenuous lead over Sen. John McCain in Indiana, with one in four likely voters saying they could change their mind on who to support for president, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll.

Obama's three-point lead in the poll, 47 percent to 44 percent, reinforces Indiana's status as a battleground in the race for the White House.
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The poll, conducted Sunday through Tuesday by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, also revealed a geographic disparity between the two candidates: Obama, the Democrat, holds a 54 percent to 40 percent advantage in Indianapolis, but McCain, the Republican, leads in all other regions of the state, including Northwest Indiana.

Pollster J. Ann Selzer said the poll, with a 4 percentage point margin of error, reflects a lead by Obama that is tentative and reliant on a solid turnout in the Indianapolis metropolitan area.

Obama's advantage, the poll found, easily could be erased. That's because one in four likely voters are still up for grabs: Six percent are undecided, and almost 20 percent of voters who say they prefer Obama or McCain say they could be persuaded to vote for someone else.

Also, younger voters and blacks -- critical to an Obama victory -- have not turned out in past elections in Indiana in the numbers that reflect their share of the population.

"The poll shows the race is slippery in Indiana," Selzer said, "and this is a fragile lead."

Jonathan Swain, Obama's Indiana spokesman, said the poll supports the campaign's belief that Obama can turn this historically red state blue for the first time in 44 years.

"This just reinforces what we felt all along: that Indiana is a battleground state that is going to play a key role in who the next president is," Swain said. "Hoosiers are seeing a presidential candidate do what they haven't seen in most of their lifetimes, and that's actively campaign here and actually compete here."

Luke Messer, co-chairman of McCain's Indiana campaign, said he's confident the Arizona senator will win in Indiana.

"Other polling has us ahead, and that's where we believe the race is," Messer said. "Obviously, Barack Obama has spent millions and millions of dollars and has had staff here for months and months, and the question would be: Why isn't he doing better?"

The poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters statewide, showed Obama has done best with blacks, with an overwhelming 94 percent of that population planning to vote for him.

Elsewhere, the poll found McCain has a 48 percent to 41 percent lead among men, but his selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate has not delivered an advantage among women. Of likely voters, Obama wins with Hoosier women by a margin of 51 percent to 42 percent.

That, however, does not mean McCain's pick of Palin was not popular among those planning to vote for him, as 76 percent said they were very satisfied with the choice and 14 percent satisfied.

Mike Paulin, 49, Indianapolis, said McCain's selection of Palin cemented his support for the Republican ticket.

"Initially, my support was more about not liking Obama," he said. "When McCain chose Palin, with her real strong stance on issues that are important to me, that made McCain a much stronger choice for me."

Paulin said Obama "scares me," because "he hasn't really laid out what he stands for or what his views are."

Obama supporters were less enthusiastic about his choice of Sen. Joe Biden as his running mate, with 40 percent saying they were very satisfied and 27 percent satisfied. The Obama campaign blamed some of that on Hoosiers' hope that their own Sen. Evan Bayh would be selected.

Beth Kinder, 39, Monticello, said she prefers Biden over Palin, calling McCain's choice a "political ploy."

"The fact that she's a woman and I'm a woman, so I should support her, I don't buy into that," Kinder said of Palin. "That is the wrong reason to vote for someone."

Kinder, a Republican, said she's voting for Obama because she believes he is best suited to address issues most important to her: high gas prices, jobs and the economy.

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http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076

What were you people smoking?

My sister lives in Southern Indiana and has been a HUGE Obama supporter from the start. She said a short time ago that when all was said and done, she wouldn't be surprised if Obama carried the state in the GE. That would be tremendous and I wonder if their neighbors in Ohio are tilting, as well.

"but McCain, the Republican, leads in all other regions of the state, including Northwest Indiana."


Northeast Indiana is a Republican stronghold not including the city of Fort Wayne.Where as Northwest Indiana is dominantly Democratic or at least I thought it was...

It has the very Democratic city of Gary, which is 85% AA.

But, Much of the Northwest is in the Chicago media market, so Obama is well liked. He's doing better in the northwest than Kerry did.

Go Hoosiers

Most of them registered as Democrats.

I'd love to think Indiana will turn blue, but outliers DO happen from time to time. If another poll comes out showing similar results, then I'll get a little more enthusiastic.

I think McCain has a slight lead in Indiana (maybe 3-5 percent), but results like this show it is possible.