Key Bush States Might Flip - National Journal

Key Bush States Might Flip
Barack Obama is doing well in
four of five Bush-won battlegrounds
polled by Allstate/National Journal.

by Ronald Brownstein
Thursday, Sept. 18, 2008

Link (with graphics): http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/pi_20080918_3259.php

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Propelled by dissatisfaction with the country's direction but hampered by doubts about his readiness for the presidency, Barack Obama is forcefully challenging John McCain in four states at the top of the Democrats' target list, while lagging in a fifth, according to Allstate/National Journal polls of battleground states.

The surveys canvassed voters in five of the states carried by President Bush in 2004 that Obama is contesting most aggressively: Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia.

Among those states, Obama is performing best in New Mexico, where he leads McCain by 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent. In Florida and Ohio, the two largest electoral prizes on the list, Obama and McCain are running in dead heats: The two are tied at 44 percent in Florida, while McCain leads in Ohio, 42 percent to 41 percent, a statistically insignificant difference. Likewise, in Colorado, Obama leads by a single percentage point, 45 percent to 44 percent. In Virginia, McCain holds a 7-point edge, 48 percent to 41 percent.

The Allstate/National Journal poll is conducted by Ed Reilly and Brent McGoldrick of FD, a business and financial communications company. (Next week, the survey will release results from three of McCain's top targets among states won by Democrat John Kerry in 2004.)

Obama almost certainly cannot get the 270 electoral votes necessary for victory without capturing at least one, and probably more, of these potential tipping-point states. Along with Iowa, where other media polls show Obama maintaining a consistent lead, and Nevada, where surveys generally show a close race that tilts toward McCain, these five battlegrounds rank atop the list of 2004 Bush states where Obama is investing the most time and money.

Similar dynamics are shaping the races in each of the five Bush-won states surveyed. From one direction, Obama is benefiting from a desire for change grounded in widespread disenchantment with Bush. Although the president carried each of these states in 2004 and all except New Mexico in 2000, today a substantial majority of voters in all five disapprove of his performance in office. (About three-fifths of the voters in four of these states are unhappy with the job Bush is doing. In the fifth, Virginia, 56 percent disapprove.) Similarly, the survey found that most voters in all five states lean toward policy positions on energy, the economy, and international affairs predominantly associated with Democrats.

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I'm interested in how next weeks poll will turn out.

:shrug:

but I think VA is shifting slightly toward McCain. That's the second poll in 2 days I've seen.

CNU Virginia Poll: McCain 48, Obama 39
This one: McCain 48, Obama 41.
PPP (a Dem pollster): Obama 48, McCain 46

Keep in mind though, this was taken during the time Palin was still the talk of the country. All the national polls have shifted towards Obama, and I wanna see some VA numbers taken during this time.

I don't know the internals of this one. Internals matter incredibly.

We went for * by the slimest of possible margins in 2004. The latest DSM Register poll had Obama +12 and the CNN poll had Obama +15. That is +7 electoral votes for Obama.

Another one had him down by five or so.

I hope McCain is forced to spend some of his $$ there.