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Big10 polls: Obama up in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin, tied in Iowa and PA.

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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:41 PM
Original message
Big10 polls: Obama up in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin, tied in Iowa and PA.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/big10_in_ia_mi_mn_oh_pa_wi_il.php

Big Ten Battleground Poll /
University of Wisconsin-Madison
9/14-17/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Illinois
Obama 53, McCain 37

Indiana
McCain 47, Obama 43

Iowa
McCain 45, Obama 45

Michigan
Obama 48, McCain 44

Minnesota
Obama 47, McCain 45

Ohio
Obama 46, McCain 45

Pennsylvania
Obama 45, McCain 45

Wisconsin
Obama 45, McCain 44

I question these results. I don't think Obama is tied in Iowa, but even if they are right, it's pretty solid for Obama.
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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:43 PM
Response to Original message
1. RCP says he's up by ~ 10 in Iowa
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_mccain_vs_obama-209.html
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JaneQPublic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #1
14. Just heard on TV that polls said Obama 12 to 15 points up in Iowa
I can't remember which station (I was flipping channels.)
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BumRushDaShow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:43 PM
Response to Original message
2. There is no way they are tied in PA.
Poll only had 600 participants.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:44 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Considering national polls usually get around 1,000 participants, Id say 600 is fine.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. 600 for a state the size of PA isn't bad.
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Yavin4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:44 PM
Response to Original message
3. Does This Mean That Obama Gets A BCS Bid?
I'm confused.
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Wapsie B Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. Yeah, the way he's going he'll play USC for the title.
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Buck Rabbit Donating Member (999 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 02:26 PM
Response to Reply #8
25. Well technically Oregon leads the Pac10 at this point and
we are hoping our game down in LA gets canceled somehow. Maybe it will rain and the Trojans will forfeit 'cause Petey doesn't want to ruin his hair and makeup.

Go Obama, Go Ducks, Go Beaver's Basketball (Obama's brother-in-law is the coach).
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Teaser Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:44 PM
Response to Original message
5. not tied in PA
otherwise looks on target.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:47 PM
Response to Reply #5
11. I think the Obama is up maybe 3 points in PA, but in IA he is up by a lot more.
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Obamarulz11 Donating Member (402 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:45 PM
Response to Original message
6. I will curve these polls
Iowa +10
Pennsylvania +4/5
Ohio +2
Minnesota +4/5
Meechigan +4/5
Illinois +20

thats the way I see it today.
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speedoo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:45 PM
Response to Original message
7. I don't think Obama is tied in PA and Iowa.
Otherwise, reasonable numbers.
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alcibiades_mystery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:46 PM
Response to Original message
10. Total nonsense...Obama is up big in Iowa
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Connie_Corleone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:48 PM
Response to Original message
12. That Iowa poll is bullshit.
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Eric J in MN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:49 PM
Response to Original message
13. I liked it better when Obama had a huge lead in Minnesota.
Obama should visit, again.

Obama had a rally in Minneapolis before the Minnesota Caucus, and a rally in St. Paul after clinching the nomination.

Obama should do a rally in southern Minnesota and a rally in northern Minnesota to reach out to other parts of the state.
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elkston Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:50 PM
Response to Original message
15. Tied in Iowa? Anamoly. (eom)
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Godhumor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:51 PM
Response to Original message
16. Nationally, Battlegrou also has McCain currently winning as they polled starting 9/10
I wouldn't put too much stock in this particular company's results.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 02:03 PM
Response to Reply #16
20. Well shit, how long did they poll for?
If they started on the 10th and released their results 18 days later, did they really poll all those days? Doesn't seem like a logical way to poll, does it?
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Godhumor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 02:18 PM
Response to Reply #20
24. From 9/10 - 9/17 (yesterday)
The last 72 hours where the massive move back to Obama started is only partially reported, and, in a week long poll, probably lower weighted in case the move is noise. One of the risks of releasing polls from a week with a lot of changes.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:05 PM
Response to Reply #24
26. And of course, I meant EIGHT, not EIGHTEEN!
But yeah, I think this poll is bunk for that reason. Four days should be long enough to kill any noise, but not too long that it's dated by the time the poll is released. Seven days, though, is a freaking lifetime in politics.
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Indiana_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:52 PM
Response to Original message
17. I know history says otherwise but I don't believe Obama is that much behind in IN.
There an Indy Star poll with Obama up in IN 47-45 although soft support. The numbers I'm getting in my canvassing says otherwise, too. And I'm from a small town surrounded by rural area that is traditionally red.
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anneboleyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 02:03 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. Hi Indiana-Dem, we live near Indianapolis and my sense is that IN is going to be close! n/t
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spartan61 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 01:53 PM
Response to Original message
18. OMG, if this keeps up in Michigan
I could even be talked into cheering for Michigan over Michigan State on October 25!! And that is saying something because I bleed green.
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Obamarulz11 Donating Member (402 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 02:05 PM
Response to Original message
21. New polls just came in
Indiana 47-44 Obama
Florida 48-44 Obama!
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 02:06 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. The florida one is the same one as yesterday
With the 3rd party people if helps
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Robbins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 02:15 PM
Response to Original message
23. Polls
My Take

Illinois-More true than the poll that had him with a 6 point lead

Indiana-This state Is In play.Mccain should have a double diget lead here.

Iowa-I think this Is a outliner especilly since a local Iowa poll had him during the Palin bounce
with a near double diget lead

Michigan-Good news here.Winning here will help win the election.

Minesotta-we are probally still seeing the Palin bounce here.Obama will win Minesotta.

Ohio-Again Showing It Is very close but Obama could win It.

Pennsylvania-Like Iowa probally a outliner

Wisconsin-It Is getting close there but can still be won.
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