A strange path to victory (electoral map)

Kurt_and_Hunter

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Thu Sep-18-08 03:08 PM
Original message

A strange path to victory (electoral map)

Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 03:19 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter

The "hostile Reagan Democrat" version.

Not a prediction. Just asking the question, if there is stiff resistance among northern great lakes rednecks and Virginians, how to reach 270? (You can draw an almost straight line of northern rednecks from Richmond to Milwaukee.)

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Phoonzang

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Thu Sep-18-08 03:10 PM
Response to Original message

1. That's a rather unpleasant and somewhat embarrasing path to victory.

But very plausible.

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On the Road

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Thu Sep-18-08 03:14 PM
Response to Original message

2. Personally,

I think flipping FL with MI and WI is more likely. But I guess that's the point of this scenario.

McCain has to work to pick up any of those Obama states. Obama is in much better shape on a state level.

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Kurt_and_Hunter

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Thu Sep-18-08 03:16 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. I agree, of course.

Tne great lakes states are likelier than Florida, but if they went bad there's always FL... an advantage of having lots of money.

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shraby

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Thu Sep-18-08 03:16 PM
Response to Reply #2

4. I'd guess that Wisconsin will be blue also.

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GrizzlyMan

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Thu Sep-18-08 03:18 PM
Response to Original message

5. Obama will win WI and MI

The idea McCain has a shot in either one is a media created, media driven narrative.

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RUMMYisFROSTED

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Thu Sep-18-08 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #5

11. Negating Florida.

If he gets Florida, blowout.

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Unsane

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Thu Sep-18-08 03:18 PM
Response to Original message

6. I can't imagine Obama loses Wisconsin.

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Venceremos

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Thu Sep-18-08 03:20 PM
Response to Original message

7. My version

switches Michigan and Wisconsin with Florida. I can't see MI and WI voting Republican for president regardless of the current polls. Michigan hasn't voted Repub for president since 1988 and Wisconsin hasn't since 1984.

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Bravo Zulu

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Thu Sep-18-08 03:28 PM
Response to Original message

8. What would happen in a tie(269-269)?

Just curious on what they do if that happened, I think Obama/Biden are going to win in a land slide!

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Kurt_and_Hunter

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Thu Sep-18-08 03:29 PM
Response to Reply #8

9. House of Representatives decides by vote of state delegations. (We win)

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vaberella

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Thu Sep-18-08 08:39 PM
Response to Reply #9

22. Totally....we pwn the HoRep. n/t

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grantcart

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Thu Sep-18-08 03:39 PM
Response to Original message

10. good point

it is true that McCain is doing better than expected in WI and MI (for the time being) but

he has to be deeply concerned about the trends in Indiana - he loses Indiana there is no road to the WH for McCAin.

And WV is only 5 points!!!!

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Kurt_and_Hunter

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Thu Sep-18-08 07:59 PM
Response to Reply #10

12. Yeah, McCain has zero room for maneuver

The Obama $39 million investment of Florida is shrewd no matter how it turns out.

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JimWis

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Thu Sep-18-08 08:06 PM
Response to Original message

13. 538 shows Wisconsin with Obama up by one point - and I don't

believe it has been updated yet to reflect the recent climb in polls for us Democrats. Wisconsin will come through. I believe we have always been more of a blue state.

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Warren DeMontague

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Thu Sep-18-08 08:10 PM
Response to Original message

14. I don't see Wisconsin doing that, at all.

Bucky's not going to let me down.

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Motown_Johnny

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Thu Sep-18-08 08:14 PM
Response to Original message

15. If Michigan goes red I will move..... I think we can count MI for us

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vaberella

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Thu Sep-18-08 08:38 PM
Response to Reply #15

21. Agreed. n/t

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jenmito

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Thu Sep-18-08 08:17 PM
Response to Original message

16. I would swap FL with WI and MI-same outcome. n/t

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doc03

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Thu Sep-18-08 08:26 PM
Response to Original message

17. I just can't imagine not carrying Ohio

after the last 8 years and the Taft Administration.

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quakerboy

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Thu Sep-18-08 08:28 PM
Response to Original message

18. Or flip OH and NV

leave Florida.

OH and NV, VA and NC, MI and WI.

The great thing about the map is that there are so many options For Obama. The base He is working from means that we only need the right high card, or any pair to win, but McP has to pull a royal flush to take it.

That is why I am not worried. If we were down to one or two states, and had to fight for those as our only option, then I would be worried. But we have many routes.

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TornadoTN

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Thu Sep-18-08 08:34 PM
Response to Reply #18

19. Where does VA fit into this?

Obama has been working quite hard in VA and venturing down into the Southwest portion of the state - Red country but a lot of people hurting their economically.

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vaberella

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Thu Sep-18-08 08:39 PM
Response to Reply #19

23. That's why I figure he's going to take it. I figured he would have won it in the primaries

had he not made that comment.

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quakerboy

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Thu Sep-18-08 08:50 PM
Response to Reply #19

25. VA and NC.

that was in there. There are so many combos for us. And it requires McCain to shoot the moon. I feel good, as I have since the end of the primaries. Since the 11 straight in the primaries, in fact.

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vaberella

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Thu Sep-18-08 08:36 PM
Response to Original message

20. I think Obama might get AK, GA, NC, VA, & MI. I'll bet on it.

Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 08:37 PM by vaberella

Oh, and possibly Texas. As a matter of fact, I'm saving this thread to see if Obama gets any of these. I think he will.

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JohnnyCougar

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Thu Sep-18-08 08:44 PM
Response to Original message

24. There is no way he loses Wisconsin.

And I think he'll win VA before he wins FL no matter what scenario.

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