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CBS/NYT Poll: McCain's 19-point Palin bounce among white women MORE than reversed (by 21 points)!

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ProgressiveEconomist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 03:29 PM
Original message
CBS/NYT Poll: McCain's 19-point Palin bounce among white women MORE than reversed (by 21 points)!
Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 03:36 PM by ProgressiveEconomist
According to the CBS/NY Times poll carried out September 12th to September 16th, Barack Obama has taken the lead against John McCain in one of the toughest demographics for Democrats, white women.

McCain had a 4-5 percentage point advantage among white women before the Democratic Convention. By September 1st, Obama had at least drawn even with McCain. McCain then proceeded to benefit from a 19-percentage point shift away from Obama/Biden and towards McCain/Palin by September 8th. But Obama then more than recovered, gaining 13 percentage points among white women, while McCain lost 8 percentage points.

The white women's vote now stands at 47% for Obama, 45% for McCain, and 7% undecided.

(See http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Sep08b-Elec.pdf , a snippet of which is in ASCII Reply #5 below.)

How do you explain these dramatic bounces?
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 03:30 PM
Response to Original message
1. Women started seeing this for what its worth
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Frances Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #1
8. I would like to think you are right
I've gotten lots of negative emails about Palin and I've passed them on to my friends
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. Well I think the new Obama ad will help even more
The one about equal pay
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glowing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 03:30 PM
Response to Original message
2. Well Hillary said: No Way, No How, No McCain, No Palan.. It is effective.
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Indenturedebtor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. Actually I would think that many women were INSULTED by this cheap political trick
It's like someone offering you a shiny nickel in exchange for a gold bar. Idiots. They just try to push the stupid bar as far as possible.
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justiceischeap Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 03:31 PM
Response to Original message
3. I'd explain it by saying the original polls were incorrect. n/t
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ProgressiveEconomist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #3
12. Which "original polls'? The Sept 8th CBS poll showing a big Palin Bounce is very
similar to results from an independent Newsweek poll fielded Sept 10th to 11th. See http://www.newsweek.com/media/93/0808_newsweek_poll.pdf
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polichick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 03:31 PM
Response to Original message
4. White women liked the idea of a woman on the ticket...until they got to know the woman.
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ProgressiveEconomist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:44 PM
Response to Reply #4
14. Sounds good to me
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ProgressiveEconomist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 03:31 PM
Response to Original message
5. Trends in CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT (Among White Women [Registered] Voters): CBS/NYT Poll
Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 03:33 PM by ProgressiveEconomist
From page 3 at
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Sep08b-Elec.pdf :

CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT (Among White Women [Registered] Voters)
. . . . . . . . . . 9/8/08 . . 9/1/08 .  .8/20/08 . . 8/6/08
. . . [9/12-16/08]. Post-Rep . Post-Dem* .Pre- . . . .Early
. . . . .Now . .. . Convention Convention Conventions August
Obama .. 47% . .. . 34% . .. . 43% . .. . 38% . . . . 38%
McCain . 45 . . . . 53 . . . . 43 . . . . 43 . . .. . 42
Undecided 7 . . . . 12 . . . . 10 . . . . 15 . . .. . 17
*This poll was conducted after the selection of Sarah Palin
as John McCains running mate.

(I added the word "Registered" and the interview
dates
"9/12-16" for clarification).

And the 9/8 CBS/NY Times results above are consistent with
9/10-11 results from the Newsweek poll online at
http://www.newsweek.com/media/93/0808_newsweek_poll.pdf
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tblue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 03:32 PM
Response to Original message
6. I dunno about you, but I am happy as a pig in slop.
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polichick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 03:39 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. Lol - with or without lipstick?
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Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #6
17. Oops ... nevermind.
Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 04:53 PM by Oregonian
I said the same joke as poster above. :blush:
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fed_up_mother Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 03:34 PM
Response to Original message
7. White women gotta' feed their kids just like other women.
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LynneSin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 03:39 PM
Response to Original message
11. Polls I had seen where favorable vs. unfavorable which has no meaning as to who gets the vote.
I have a very favorable view towards my represenative Mike Castle, the lone US Representative here in Delaware and one of the few Republicans to have a statewide office. But that doesn't mean I'll ever vote for him.
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Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:51 PM
Response to Original message
15. The white women I know LOATHE Sarah Palin with a passion.
I've never seen anything else rile them up as much -- not even the start of the war. They feel personally insulted.
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alcibiades_mystery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:52 PM
Response to Original message
16. Ouch
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:56 PM
Response to Original message
18. It was an anomaly that corrected itself.
Still, I'm pleased. :D
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ProgressiveEconomist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. The same anomaly in two independent polls? See post #12 above
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. I hadn't seen the Newsweek poll.
My problem with the original CBS poll was that it was (I believe) conducted during a weekend, when McCain always polls better (because Obama supporters have lives, lol.)

The corroborating Newsweek poll, which had been conducted mid-week, does make this more interesting.
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rufus dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 05:06 PM
Response to Original message
20. Check out this research done by Kurt&Hunter
Basically a tie amoung white woman equals a win for Obama. Check it out though, great detail in there.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7106852&mesg_id=7106852
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Coexist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. thanks for that link
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ProgressiveEconomist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 09:52 PM
Response to Reply #20
24. Does anybody know the size and duration of the Democratic bounce from Ferraro in
1984?

IMO, that's the question whose answer might tell us most about what choice of a woman as VP candidate might do as a campaign builds toward Election Day. Once the initial bounce was over, did things go steadily downhill from there?

As I recall, Ferraro's husband's business dealings were the main subject for successful attack by the other party that year.
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 05:15 PM
Response to Original message
23. Why not just admit polls are horseshit? nt
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