The Palin Bounce Ends

http://election.princeton.edu/

The state-poll Meta-Analysis history reached an extreme yesterday, as I predicted. Today it jumped sharply upward. It will continue to follow national poll trends with a delay.

At a national level, the post-GOP convention bounce is definitively over. Nine polls give a median margin of Obama leading by 4.0 +/- 1.3 %. The transition away from a McCain lead coincided with the McCain and Palin television appearances and the Saturday Night Live takedown by Tina Fey.

The national polls used to calculate this were conducted Sep. 11-17. They were

* DailyKos/Research 2000 Tracking (D) - Obama +6%
* CBS - Obama +5%
* Quinnipiac - Obama +4%
* Diageo/Hotline Tracking - Obama +4%
* Gallup Daily Tracking - Obama +4%
* Ipsos/McClatchy - Tie
* Rasmussen Tracking - Tie
* Economist/YouGov - McCain +2%
* American Research Group - McCain +3%

In case of tracking polls the most recent available number was taken.

Two useful benchmarks for future reference will be the peak margins seen after each party’s convention. I view these as candidate high-water marks for each candidate. Obama’s largest lead was 6.5 +/- 1.3%. McCain’s largest lead was 2.0 +/- 1.2%.

:)

Barbie was the favorite new toy for a while, and now she's been discarded.

N/T