New ARG polls from CA, IA, MN, and VA

VA doesn't look bad (but I think they are underestimating Obama's support there,) and aren't they surveying too many Repukes in MN?

Results:

Presidential Ballots
State McCain Obama Other Undecided

CA 39% 53% 2% 6%
IA 44% 51% - 5%
MN 47% 48% - 5%
VA 48% 46% - 5%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Sounds like ARG is continuing to do some strange stuff.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/MN08.html

Doesn't seem that far out of whack...

Just means that we have more work to do...

This is apparently a flawed poll, so add a few to Obama's numbers. :hi:

a swing state? I know things have changed in that state, but how and why?

It's way too close right now in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. If we lose just one of those states, it's going to make winning the election very difficult.

It doesn't make any sense to me. Those states are getting hit harder by the crappy economy than just about any others, and they're traditionally fairly liberal. They also don't have the history of racism that states like W. Va. do. I just don't get it.

Is they were close in 2004 and still face stubborn divisions. Can't believe we aren't 10 points ahead in every poll there with this economy.

Minnesota will still go to Obama, as will Mich and Wisc.

The thing I'm wary of is that there could be quite a few close contests - in 2004's blue and red states - and I hope the numbers in the upper midwest are off so election tampering is less of a factor.

to hold the Kerry states and win Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa. that's 273 electoral votes. That's all. We've been ahead in iowa by 5-12 in every poll for months, and ahead in all but 1 or 2 polls in NM and CO. The GOP convention in MN was worth a few points for the first half of September, but now it's moving back to Obama. We should win MN by 5+ points, and we will. Obama's team is working hard on the ground, and we will get the great turnout there and in many other states like IA and CO.

I want to win the popular vote by a lot, but it would be hilarious to lose the popular vote and win the Electoral college and throw the GOP's words from 2000 back in their faces. Before the election, some GOP senators were asked about their reaction if Gore won the EC but lost the popular vote. They said they would not allow that to stand, and would make sure the popular vote winner was President. Then when the opposite happened, they all were angry with "We have to follow the constitution! The popular vote means nothing!" Then W Bush governed his first term as if he won by 25%, because he could. If Obama wins the EC but ties or loses the popular vote, I'm going to throw their words back at them when they start saying that McCain should be given the presidency, or there should somehow be a half-GOP administration.

But winning the popular vote and the Electoral College by 5+% would be best.

Michigan has lots of NRA types....and lots of racists

maybe the greater ann arbor area is liberal....but the rest of the state?

lots of UAW members are solid dems....but....there are lots of other slices

I think that's one issue?

Raised taxes 3 years ago. Economy tanked even more.

Kinda like a mini Bush effect but it hurts Dems instead of Rep locally.
When problems are local people tend to blame local officals.

The Dem brand is weaker in MI then in most other states.
Not sure how to fix it. Should Obama distance himself from the weakened local party? Or attempt to redirect that anger towards the national stage? I am sure he will turn it around but it will be closer than I expected.

newly registered voters.

And how many of them remembered where they hid their booty?