Obama has ALL of the Kerry states PLUS NM, Iowa, and Colorado

We've got this.


McCain won't flip a SINGLE Kerry state.... with the POSSIBLE exception of New Hampshire.


Obama is up 10 in Colorado, up 11 in New Mexico, and up 11 in Iowa.

Those three are solidly ours now.


And that's all we need.


Virginia, Florida, and Ohio would be nice.... but they aren't necessary. Just hold the states we already have, and this is ours.

It's damn good to see Obama doing so well, but I guess the "Fundie Vatican" just holds my enthusiasm for taking that state back a bit.

I thought that was pretty red outside of the cities..

I'm more worried about retaining Michigan and New Hampshire. Everything else, including IA/NM/CO, looks pretty good.

That's ours.


New Hampshire is troublesome.... but only 4 electoral votes.

maybe elsewhere as well.

And I'm not sure how good those Colorado numbers are. There are a lot of powerful GOPpies manipulating things behind the scenes there.

Iowa, I'd say, is a definite win. It takes a lot to get the Iowans' mad up. The last eight years have finally pulled it off.

We need some (or hopefully ALL!) of the following:

Ohio
Florida
North Carolina
Indiana
Minnesota
Montana
Virginia

skeptically,
Bright

But in this case McCain is right and the Iowans are wrong. McCain opposes corn-based ethanol.

I mean I'll take it, but McCain is right on this science.

Yes, there are some who want to save family farms and see corn-based ethanol as a last-resort way to do it, but they are not a majority or even a substantial minority. Iowans' conservatism is far broader than single-issue economics; it's an old-fashioned paleo-Conservative stuffiness that harks back to suspicion of government and aversion to change, but trust of neighbors/family.

Even their natural tendency to be suspicious of change has finally been overridden by the blatant smash-and-grab raid on the economy, the lying, the hypocrisy, the fraud and corruption of the last eight years.

FWIW, I agree with you about corn-based ethanol and deplore its role as a Democratic "carrot" in agricultural states, but I don't think it's the real game-changer in Iowa. A factor, maybe. But remember that Iowa still has a formidably competent public education system (especially compared to most red states.) They are stubborn and conservative and change-resistant, but not intrinsically stupid. And the GOP has finally pushed them over the edge.

prognosticatorially,
Bright

won it like he would have won Ohio if the votes were counted, but Kerry lost NM by around 5000 votes.

But THIS time, it won't be close enough to steal.

Guaranteed.

And the Chair of the Bernalillo County GOP's shoving his big, fat, racist foot in his big, fat, racist mouth will only help. (Thanks, "Seedy Baca"!)

positively,
Bright

There is still no hard evidence that Bush won in 2004. And many, many, many questions about ballots remaining uncounted for Kerry.

It's all water under the bridge legally, but in truth, NM has been trending blue-violet for at LEAST four years.

firmly,
Bright

but the margin was minuscule even if it had counted for him.

I tink Obama will take the state and by a decent sized margin. So far, he's been polling very strongly among Hispanics...

The rest show them split pretty even, either Obama up by 1 or 2 or vice versa. New Mexico and Iowa look solid. There is still some Kerry state problems in Pennslyvania and Michigan, but Obama would still have to really blow it to lose those, I think.

Watch Virginia, that's trending Obama slightly. North Carolina is back to even, which is a miracle because there was an outlier poll that had McCain up by nearly twenty less than two weeks ago.

McCain had one in North Carolina that had him up nearly 20 just recently and that ended up being off. You can't just look at one poll in a bad week for McCain and count that in Obama's column, you'll need more data. I'm not saying it's not right, but you need to view it as an outlier until more info comes along.

Obama has clearly been ahead the whole time.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/colorado.html

they are actually counted.
I am still terrified of the election being stolen.

We have to hope the Obama landslide is big enough to cancel out the Diebold machines and the imaginary Republican voters that Karl Rove creates.

I read somewhere that Republicans had about 5 million illegal votes in 2004.

If lose NH and VA and Ohio and FL but win Iowa, NM and CO. IT would be 269-269. Luckily, we control the house and senate so we would most likely win. Has a tie ever happened in American History?

This has happened two times. Once in 1800, Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr tied. Thomas Jefferson won. The second time was in 1824 when the House of Representatives chose John Quincy Adams over Andrew Jackson even though he probably had more popular vote.

Here is a discussion of the possibilities this year..
http://www.schak.com/270/2008/05/electoral-college-ties.html

Well you learn something new every day. It would be wild if Obama did win that way but at least it would not be FL-worthy of 2000. I cannot take that ever again, I will have a heart attack and I am only 32.

At least not solidly. And PA, Michigan and Minnesota still look too close for comfort, although I am not terribly worried about Minnesota. Same-day registration should give him a boost there and in Wisconsin...I think it's the reason he won the Wisconsin primary so overwhelmingly. What's strange is that Iowa usually is slightly more Republican than Wisconsin or Minnesota, and yet Obama seems to have Iowa solidly locked up while the other two are too close for comfort.

as someone who left the polls as a watcher in 2004 at 1:30 in the AM after the last person in line voted, I was ecstatic to hear them giving Ohio to Kerry. I went home exhausted and fell asleep.

I woke up in the AM to utter anarchy and bedlam...so NO, I do not give this to Mr. Obama yet. There is work to do still..