Mark Warner has a 30 point lead in VA Senate race -- major coat-tails for Obama?

Poll: Gilmore Fails to Gain Ground in Va. Senate Bid

Former Republican governor James S. Gilmore III has not gained any traction for his U.S. Senate campaign against Democratic candidate Mark R. Warner over the past year, adding to Democratic hopes that the party will have two Virginia senators next year for the first time since 1970, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Warner, also a former governor, leads Gilmore among likely voters by 61 percent to 31 percent.

The poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday, shows that Warner has a lead in every region of the state with six weeks left in the campaign. Warner is ahead by nearly 40 points in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads and has a 30-point lead in central Virginia, which includes Richmond and its suburbs, Gilmore's home political base. Warner also holds a 4-point edge in the rural, heavily Republican, western part of the state.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/23/AR2008092302292.html?hpid=topnews
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It is very likely Warner's popularity will benefit Barack Obama in VA. Many voters will likely vote straight Dem -- Warner/Obama. If polls show Obama and McCain close then the "Warner effect" gives VA to Obama. IMHO.

It will be close but VA is going blue.

Huge field operation here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7157695&mesg_id=7157695

FOX News/Rasmussen 09/21 - 09/21 500 LV 50 48 McCain +2
ABC News/Wash Post 09/18 - 09/21 698 LV 46 49 Obama +3
SurveyUSA 09/19 - 09/21 716 LV 45 51 Obama +6
InAdv/PollPosition 09/17 - 09/17 502 LV 48 46 McCain +2

It still looks like a toss up but the Warner effect as well as GOTV and new voter registrations will put Obama over the top in VA.

Out past Roanoke

Warner did really well there. Obama was there last week in Lebanon and Biden spoke to miners somewhere out there over the weekend.

Add 1 to that mark, now, it looks like. woot!

Like I said then, that speech was directly to Virginians, went a long way to probably delivering Virginia, and could end up being the reason Obama is President.

warner is on the repugs smears of warner. warner was govener after gilmore & cleaned up some really bad shit that gilmore did & tried to hide. :):)i get what you said -- yeah obama will benifit by it they do have yard signs with them together (names):)

Not really.

And I can tell you, Virginia is going for Obama. I'm in a Republican controlled district and Obama signs and stickers are everywhere, not to mention the amount of people registering for November.

Of course, lots could happen. Mostly bad.

Huge voter registration effort plus Obama and Biden have spent alot of time here. Lots of ads too. VA is going blue -- I am convinced of it.

I **really** think it is more than possible.

Gov, Senate, POTUS. Yes we can!!

...if VA doesn't return to its Democratic roots this year.

Looking for Adams and asking, "how could this happen?"

TJ and JA died on the same day. July 4 1826. Adams was surrounded by family. Jefferson was surrounded by his slaves. Both sides burst out crying.

..."Thank God Thomas Jefferson still lives."

But TJ had died a few hours earlier.

But yeah, the July 4, 1826, thing is really eerie and/or cool.

Obama's electoral argument was "Kerry plus VA and CO". Put those two states in play and OH and FL aren't dealbreakers anymore.

272-266. A VA win is huge. It opens up a lot of paths for victory.

Virginia would be terrific, but it isn't critical. It's nice to have a choice between CO and VA and OH though.

we win va

... he'll be good to add to the Senate Majority as well.

I don't know how much its worth though.

served him well in Virginia..

He was the asshat who nearly ran us into the ground with his tax cuts for the rich, not to mention his own special brand of cronyism. And I haven't seen ANY signs of Gilmore having the slightest ray of hope :bounce:

In fact, I've only seen one weak tv ad for Gilmore, and no big signs for him anyway, not even in Chesapeake!