The Republicans will not kill the bill in any scenario

If the Republicans managed to defeat the bill it would be the final end of the Republican party. Thus no Republican has any political leverage, and they can be ignored. Lots of folks want to vote against it, but only if passage is guaranteed.

There is something unique about this bill, politically. It is tied to the real world in an immediate way.

If the bill is voted down over the weekend the DOW will drop 1500 points Monday. That's not hyperbole. That fact has nothing to do with the broader wisdom of the bill. It's just a fact about the market.

So there is no possible way the bill will be voted down. None. Zero.

No political party will be directly responsible for a stock market panic a month before standing for election.

The "Republican revolt" theme is something the talking heads and wing-nuts are working just to pass the time.

EXAMPLE: Pat Buchanan is on HARDBALL right now suggesting the pugs should kill the bill so they can substitute their own bill. What he doesn't recognize is that this isn't immigration. Non-passage will have direct, immediate and highly visible consequences. Pat's imagined effort for a Republican bill would take place during a market melt-down... that's not gonna work.

The Repubs are gaining political capital in taking a stand but a deal has to be reached due to the market dynamics you've described (it's a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy).

Of course they got hundreds of negative calls. This bill is opposed by craz... er, energized people on both ends of the political spectrum.

But the polls suggesting the public opposed the bill were horribly worded push-polls.

This is a case where the silent majority is real. The average American will piss and moan about this all day long, but that doesn't mean they actually want it to be rejected. That's what the pugs are missing.

when he's gone on record and staked his candidacy on the very scenario you envision--defeat of the bill will lead to a stock market collapse.

But if it fails everyone who voted no is politically dead on the spot.

Bill Clinton's tax hike was like this. Everyone knew a week in advance the senate vote would be 51-49 in favor. The only question was which Dems would be allowed to vote against it.

it would be an utter disaster if it didn't pass?

John McCain is not the model of consistency.

It would be the end of his campaign.

How the hell does he suppose the minority party in the House forces a bill over the will of the majority party? Especially this bill - this year - at this time. Does he really think the Democrats will crumble and scatter? With a national Presidential election at stake?

He presumes too much about the power of his little friends at this moment in history.

That's only about 14% of its value...In 87 it dropped 27% and was down more than 40% mid day before the bargain hunters stepped in...There was also no net and saturation cable coverage then...

1500 wouldn't even be a "crash." But it is still more than the public would tolerate. I would expect a big drop Monday, then weeks (or a decade) of stair-stepping down.

Unlike 1987, we don't have any interest rates left to cut. (The difference between 2% and 0% is meaningless when you can't borrow at any price.)

They know the bill will pass, but its all about the politics behind it

otherwsie, REpublcians would not be balking right now.

So let the fucking thing die. Kill it DEAD!

You could say everything you just said about global warming, nuclear proliferation, disaster in Iraq....

The welfare of America is genuinely unimportant to congressional ideologues.

Watch the video; Bill Gross of Pimco is one the more respected voices in finance (in the no-bullshit, bond guy manner):

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26885559

I agree with you; major market crash if this isn't done.

Let us stare into the abyss.

Oh, I think they may not kill the bill altogether, but they are going to delay it enough to cause real harm. Harm to the economy and permanent harm to their party.

Stop pretending they have leverage they don't have.