http://www.electoral-vote.comA couple of words of warning however. For some states, like Florida and Ohio, there are lots of data points and the regression line is quite believeable. However, in a few states, such as Oklahoma the data are scarce and noisy. The regression line for Oklahome predicts a tiny Kerry victory there, which is exceedingly unlikely. But if you look at the graph, you can see that the line looks completely plausible: Bush has lost ground there. As more polls become available, the fewer states will have a prediction that is clearly not going to happen.
For the moment, I wouldn't take this map too seriously, but a month from now it might be a good indicator.
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