Electoral Map, with Tossups: Obama 282, McCain 210, 46 Tossups

I'm bored and depressed because my badgers let me down today, so I decided to make a map using RCP.

So heres how I currently see things as I go through the "swing states"


CO: Obama is slighly ahead by about 5 points here. Dont listen to the ARG poll that had Obama down here because he isnt. Id say its a lean Obama state at this point

FL: Im surprised to even call this one a tossup state. Ive seen a poll that has Obama up two points here and the rest with McCain up mostly in the MOE. Therefore, I'm moving this into the tossup column

IN: I understand that 538 has it going blue at this point, but I'm still holding out until I see one more poll with Obama up in this traditional red state. Until I do, this will remain a lean McCain

IA: Iowa is no longer a swing state...this election I have it a solid Obama

MI: Obama is pulling away here and this state is on the cusp of moving towards being safe and not a leaner.

MN: I dont think the race here is as close as the polls say. I think Obama is up by 5 points and this is therefore a leaner for Obama.

MO: Obama is closing fast in MO, but because I havent seen a poll with him leading yet, this will remain lean McCain, though its close.

NV: Leans McCain, though a democratic pollster had Obama.

NH: I think Obama is up by 5 in NH, but thats just my gut feeling. Going with what the polls say, NH is a true tossup state with polls showing both candidates leading.

NM: NM has moved for me from a lean Obama state to a safe Obama state with him up 8-10 points.

NC: NC, a traditional republican state is now a tossup. Polls have shown both men leading and very close if not. When you take out that huge outlier Res. 2000 poll, RCP would have Obama ahead. I think its within the MOE and a tie for now.

OH: McCain is up by a very small margin, but still up. I think ultimately Obama may still win this state, and Florida will be easier than Ohio because of those appalachian voters who have been consistently cool to Obama.

PA: Obama is up by about 5 points. Expect him to win here 53-47 on election day.

VA: Obama is up in Virginia by about 3 points. I fully expect him to take the state and it leans Obama.

WV: I'm not convinced by some of those polls showing this race close here. I think McCain will ultimately win by 10-15 because some people here just wont be able to pull the lever for him.

WI: My home state currently has seen some polls showing it close, which wouldnt suprise me, but I think Obama is up by about 5 points and will win here by 3-4.

Here is my map, where I see Obama with 282 votes, McCain with 210, and 46 tossups.

On a Friday night. I think that means they're very excited. I also think that means we win Missouri, provided we get election equipment to the precincts and they don't find any abandoned in random parking lots again.

Your map looks very good, although I think NH is more likely to go Obama than Virginia.

two months after Ike destroyed Galveston.

I'm....just saying.

:scared:

But you clearly had the number at the top, so it was doubly my mistake. :D

My only objection is that I am very worried about NH. I think it's a legit tossup. Remember in 2000, this was the only Northeast state GW won. Also if McCain wins NH, Obama's most likely path to victory would be through the House of Representatives following a 269-269 tie.

I am also worried that even with the good polling of last week, there was no real movement in PA. I think Obama has a low ceiling there. The good news is I think McCain has a low ceiling there too. I think PA is naturally a 51-49 state no matter who is running for each side.


I am stunned at how well Obama is doing in Florida. I fully expected to easily put this state in the McCain column by now. Remember if Obama wins Florida or Ohio, the election is over. McCain MUST WIN BOTH. Obama DOESN'T NEED ANY OF THEM!


On a good note, I agree with your analysis of Michigan. And despite the close polling, I am not worried about MN or WI.

I don't live in the appalachian area - but I do live in a very rural area. We've got a ground game that is unbelievable! We're canvassing everywhere - phone banking every day and seeing so many people that have never been involved become involved. Ohio has over 700,000 newly registered voters in this calendar year alone.

Every time I canvass - I find a supporter who isn't registered. Every time I phone bank - I find someone who is undecided and after we talk - they're leaning Obama.

I made a phone call the other day... it went something like this:
Me: "Hi this is 'OhioBlue', I'm a volunteer with the Obama campaign, how are you?"
Caller: "Oh.. we're Republicans"
Me: "Oh, okay, sorry - sooo.. you're voting for McCain then?"
Caller: "Well, you know... I don't know....."

We then had a conversation about her $15k in medical bills and how bad the economy is. I left the conversation asking her if she wanted me to send her some lit on Obama's positions on the economy and health care. She said definitely YES! She wants to learn more about his positions.

Knocks matter! Calls matter! We are making them. We will win!

I just havent seen the polls to point to an Obama victory just yet.

they're using old models. they don't know what we know.
We won't stop. We will win.

CO Rove.com shows it as blue not a tossup, whereas pollster.com shows it as a tossup.
FL Both rove.com and pollster show it as a tossup.
IN Both rove.com and pollster show it as a tossup.
IA Both rove.com and pollster show it as blue.
MI Rove.com shows it as tossup whereas pollster.com shows it as blue.
MN Both rove.com and pollster show it as a tossup.
MO Both rove.com and pollster show it as a red.
NV Both rove.com and pollster show it as a tossup.
NH Both rove.com and pollster show it as a tossup.
NM Both rove.com and pollster show it as a blue.
NC Rove.com shows it red whereas pollster.com shows it as tossup.
OH Both rove.com and pollster show it as a tossup.
PA Both rove.com and pollster show it as a tossup.
VA Both rove.com and pollster show it as a tossup.
WV Both rove.com and pollster show it as red.
WI Both rove.com and pollster show it as a tossup.

http://www.pollster.com/
http://rove.com/election I check out Rove's electoral map to see what he's thinking. Obama 273 EV's

Your map shows what I consider to be Obama's best bet at this point in time for 270+ EV victory.
NH,NV,OH,FLand IN in that order of win percentage are all icing on the Obama victory cake. NC and MO still red. But may flip if Obama can keep his polling momo.

Kerry really won Ohio and Gore really won Florida.

I have a hard time believing LA will vote Repug.

As stunt after stunt grates on people....

My admittedly speculative map of how I think we'll end up (Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida will keep us up long into the night).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=1&save=3-3-3-4-1-2-1-1-1-2-4-1-3-1-2-1-3-4-3-1-1-1-2-2-3-2-4-3-2-2-2-2-1-2-3-2-3-1-2-1-3-3-4-3-3-1-2-1-4-2-3

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/sep/22/uselections2008.republicans

The above article from the best paper in Britain discusses GOP use of push polls aimed at Jewish voters in swing states.