I just got a PM from a DUer telling me that North Carolina is NOT in play that Obama WON'T win it!!!

First, if you think we stand a chance of winning NC then please kick and rec this thread. Because I DO think we stand a very good chance.


I have long proclaimed (even when we were far back in the polls) that I believed we would win NC. I live in NC. NC's black population is 21%. All Obama needs is 5% more of the white vote than Kerry got. Which he will receive because Kerry did not spend money campaigning here. This is a liberal arts state. We have on of the only state supported arts universities in the south east. We have DUKE, Chapel Hill, Wake Forest, NC State and sooooo much more. We constantly elect democrats for offices such as Governor. We have more registered Dems than Republicans. We have been WAITING for an excuse... WAITING for someone to target us and finally someone has.

Obama will get the east coast because of the black population there (it's huge) and he will get the middle of the state thanks to big cities like Greensboro, Charlotte, and Raleigh. The only place he needs help in is the Appalachian areas that are not very populated. He needs to send people like Hillary out there to stump for him. That is it.

NC will go blue. All you need to do is look at the enthusiasm. Even my mother and father, who hate Obama, who are border racist, and who know no one that is voting for Obama besides me... even THEY have said they firmly believe Obama will win NC. Why? Because the atmosphere in NC is different this year. Because you don't see McCain bumper stickers are yard signs... even in my republican, baptist run town where alcohol was illegal until this past summer. All you see are Obama signs.

I wont name the name of the poster who sent me this private message. However, I think it is interesting the message was sent privately rather publicly. They claim, though, that they couldn't respond to my thread.

here is the rouge private message that was sent to me:

"I couldn't reply to your message, but North Carolina isn't in play. Obama won't win it."

That is ALL the message said. No facts to back that statement up. NONE. Despite my specific information about the state and despite the fact that this poster lives in GEORGIA and NOT in North Carolina which are like two different countries. I know, I've spent a good deal of time in Georgia.

Why would a DUer with thousands of posts be in such denial about the state of North Carolina?

Unless, of course, you're a Democrat. :hi:

so!

They are world's apart aren't they?

is more liberal than most of VA. I had a boyfriend that lived in VA and used to perform up there. VA came off as much more conservative than did NC.

The state is far from homogenous. I've lived in northern VA, the Tidewater area, and also went to Virginia Tech.

most of my performing. Though I have been up to Arlington as well. The people I really got to KNOW were from Roanoke.

Everybody at Virginia Tech talks about rumors about what the "townies" are like. That area is definitely very conservative. However, northern VA is definitely very progressive. If Obama wins VA, it's going to be that area that carries him to victory. Overall, I feel that VA is more liberal than NC, mainly because northern VA is so populous that it easily negates some of the other areas.

I can't say for 100% sure that I am right.

Either way, I am confident that Obama will be winning VA as well.

I think, this election, we might actually WIN VA and NC but LOSE places like Ohio and Florida.

Either way... that means an Obama presidency. If we take VA and NC and CO along with places like Iowa and New Mexico... then we are going to win this and win it well.

Basically, as I hear it, Alexandria and Arlington are the more liberal areas. Fairfax, Loudon, and Prince William counties tend to lean more conservative.

While it's becoming more liberal Northern Virginia could still easily go McCain in this election.

for about 8 years. No way would I describe it as conservative. It does have a higher than normal amount of military personnel and veterans though. Housing prices are out of the roof there too, so the economy is going to hurt McCain big time. Also, Fairfax has a fairly young population, so it's not very conservative either.

Here's the last SurveyUSA poll of VA. It has Obama leading 51-45. Obama is winning northern Virginia 59-38. Can't really get more liberal than that unless you go somewhere like California or Massachusetts.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c16bc98c-8d29-4b28-8aae-fc8aac9471ad

I think NC will end up being the money-sink that McLame had to spend so much in to win, that it cost him OTHER states.

It would of course be wonderful to win it to boot.

It shows NC as a toss-up, having trended away from "leaning McCain" - Obama currently LEADS in NC (albeit VERY narrowly), but the clear trend is toward Obama at this point.

Although I'm on record stating we won't win North Carolina, unless Obama wins the national popular vote by at least 5%. That looks feasible now, so that's why the state polling has drifted in Obama's favor. But I don't believe the national margin will hold, not in an open race in a polarized era. I'll stick with a 2-3 point national climate in our favor.

I've wagered on Obama to win the election at basically 50/50, and on McCain to win Indiana and North Carolina at roughly 60/40 each. Great chance to win all of them, virtually impossible to lose all three.

I live in California, and I am involved in doing data entry for Obama.

Every weekend, we enter the data that is produced from the phone banks.

We were initially told that we would be working on Nevada...

But now we're working on North Carolina!

Why?

Because there's movement towards Obama there!

I think you're correct...We can take NC!

I have no idea why anyone, esp. a Democrat, would say such a thing...


:shrug:

I am not one of those super positive people! I was the one who said I wasn't so sure we could take Florida this year. However, I can't help but feel positive about NC because I truly do believe it. It just seems obvious from looking around me that something is changing here. If we go blue this fall... that will be the proudest I have ever felt of my state in the 25 years I have been on this earth.

Its obviously going to be dead tight. I'd focus on the last three polls on RCP... two were ties and one was a plus two for Obama.
At the very least, the very very least, I'm sure its making the McCain camp pull resources from states they hoped they might nick-off, Michigan perhaps, to make sure they shore up NC. Regardless its a win win and proves that all efforts have to be made.
The only advice is to keep working, get out the vote.
Cheers

BK

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard/

They can clicky clicky on NC!

I live south of Wilmington. There are three basic types of people who live here: (1) transplants from the northeast who want to live at the beach; (2) college kids, starving artists, C list actors (for One Tree Hill - which films in Wilmywood - and similar movies/TV shows); and (3) natives.

Thus this area is perfect for Obama to flourish and indeed I see predominantly Obama bumperstickers, though lately I see a few more McCain't.

I also lived in Raleigh/Durham area for many years and I suspect there it is even more fertile ground for O/B. I think the statewide polls have the contest either tied or with a very minor advantage to McCain't, though I have seen a poll where Obama has the advantage, though within the MOE.

The keys, as in all elections, are turnout, turnout and more turnout. There have been very high numbers of newly registered voters; hopefully, they will vote (the tendency is for these voters to vote for a change, not the status quo).

Being that I am foreign-born and a foreign citizen, I often wonder why it is that in the US the percentage of eligible voters who actually vote is so low, compared to other countries with democratic systems. It saddens me, as the right to vote is one of the most important gifts of democracy.

There's quite a bit of activity on the GOP side having to do with voter suppression, caging, manipulation of the election laws, etc. If NC Dems are registering a lot of African Americans and other Democratic demographics, it makes sense that Republicans are doing their level best to ensure that those groups aren't able to be a factor in the election. The person who PM'd you might just be a realist.

although I would hope that IF a DU er, no matter from what state, had knowledge of possible vote theft...would expose it, so it can be addressed openly and in the public eye...wb

We just have to drag everyone to the booths and take this one.

I believe we ABSOLUTELY have a chance to go blue. Democrats have registered far more new voters than the repukes have. We already have a Dem governor. Dole and Hagan are polling bout even for the senate seat too. NC could very conceivable go blue this year!!!! :) :) :)

*Now will the votes truly be counted is the question.

unless you were already in a conversation about that and it came up and they were just replying and giving their opinion.

even if you don't think we can win there why go to such lengths to say he can't win there.

However, I did reply to a thread the other day saying how I thought NC would win. She claimed the reason she sent that PM was just because she couldn't reply to my reply in the other thread :shrug:

But I agree with you. Why go to such great lengths to say something like that AND why not say it in public. I don't see WHY she wouldn't be able to reply to a rather recent post I had made.

and as you say there were multiple posts aobut Obama and NC where they could have given their opinion.

Now that you mention it... however...

BUT, the poster had thousands of posts and I can't imagine a troll would last that long. So, still, somehow I can't imagine it is a troll. Maybe the poster has a grudge against NC or Obama specifically?

a few i suspected turned out to be trolls but they are careful. the ones i suspected revealed themselves as trolls before they got banned. there was one famous one that revealed himself during the 2004 elections.

you never know. even if they aren't a troll i just think it's stupid to discourage people like this. i'm in california which Obama will win easily but i still show support for him here.

and in places like NC and other red states ewe have to start somewhere if we want to win nationally. even if we don't win this time the work people put into it will help in the future.

with some strange messages before his big "reveal."

Things that make ya go hmmm...

It makes me paranoid lol :scared:

as an indicator. People do not vote in primaries not to vote in the general election. Certainly there will be a few and certainly the GE turnout will be far greater, however if I recall correctly Obama and HRC individually had greater turn outs than the entire Republican slate of candidates.

by the time it hit NC. Just something to keep in mind.

However, if that many people are excited for Obama in the primaries, they'll def be back in November.

so I am hoping that the fall out from our extended battle for the nomination will be more people who feel they are already "invested" in who wins this thing, and thus will vote.

hopefully.

- as someone else mentioned, forcing InSane to spend money here hurts him elsewhere (fight them over here so we dont have to fight them over there)

- Kay Hagan stand a very good chance of sending Dolethy back to Kansas (and her little dog, Bob, too). Obama's coattails will help her.

- Also, it may help Bev, I can't stand McCRONY!

Because, despite my certainty about Obama winning NC... I'm a pessimist at heart.

In 2004, 26% of the voters were black. If we assume the same, if not more, show up and vote the way polls have been showing, then we only have to get 25% of the white vote.

The key to winning in NC is to make McCain into McBush. Lets face it, when the one-toothers come down from the hills to vote in the west, they aren't going to vote for Obama. Even if Obama was running against a dog, they wouldn't vote for him.

So the trick is to not promote Obama, its to discourage them for wanting to vote for McBush and keep them in the hills on Nov 4th. Not even they want to vote for Bush again.

:hug:

;-)

in directly connected to what part of NC they live in. My county went for Hillary in the primaries and now is showing a huge drift towards McCain. The closest town to me is 67% African American and I still see far more McCain signs than I do Obama signs.
Online polling cannot be trusted simply because it is too easy to 'game'.

...and think about what difference turnout could make. But OK, go ahead and keep thinking the worst.

become thinking the worst? :eyes: It is reality here. I have lived here 97% of my life and have been active with our local party for over 25 years. I refuse to paint a rosy picture that would be a falsehood just to make everyone feel better.

just for a nice old fashion "told ya so" party :party:

In fact, until July 30th it was illegal to buy or sell alcohol in Asheboro! However, I travel a lot around the state and am basing my views off of that as well as the buzz that is going on in Asheboro (a city he probably wont win).

I know Wikipedia isnt ironclad, but it says that NC is now estimated to be 25.3% AA. And 6.5% Hispanic.

If you add those numbers to excitement over Obama, and a general assumption that all the recent voter reg efforts have brought at least a little parity to the registration demographics, you can get some very interesting numbers.

Having thousands of posts on DU does NOT make one a Democrat. It is possible to be a very successful troll here due to vagaries in the rules and certain tendencies of the site administrators. I am not implying any complicity, merely that understanding the unwritten rules here can enable the intelligent troll to escape undetected while simultaneously acting to undermine discussions.

There have been several examples of this exposed, and there are several more who post here yet, every day. You know what they look like, compile a list.

Oh, and how did you get a red (rouge) private message? :evilgrin:

:hug:

I have never seen this kind of support and excitement for any candidate in the time years that I've lived here. There have also been many voter registration drives targeting those most likely to vote Dem in 08

Obama (as of 9/23). http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_mccain_vs_obama-334.html

Pro Obama Biden folk in and near NC really need to focus, donate, volunteer and vote during this last month plus. And if you are in a solid blue or even a solid red state and can go to NC, bless you. Otherwise, phone bank from your very own home, especially if you have a wonderful Southern accent. (Born and lived all my life in the true blue Northeast, and I loves me some Southern accents.)

If you meet the right people we can be a very kind and hospitable state. We have beautiful mountains (the old kind with the rolling peaks), we have great peaceful beaches, and we also have a HUGE Zoo (something like the biggest natural habitat zoo in the country). We also have a great art museum in Raleigh and don't forget BILTMORE HOUSE (largest home in America).

So if you come and help us gather votes for Obama... you might be able to take in some sights to help make it worth your while!

ps. Oh and don't forget places like Carowinds Theme Park, Tweetsie Railroad, Old Salem, and especially the Cherokee Indian Reseravtion where you can see the spectacular outdoor drama "Unto These Hills".

*hope*

:hug:

and that was with Edwards on the ticket.

Add to that, North Carolina is chock full of fundies and racists.

That makes it an improbable pick up.

On the other hand, I've never seen a presidential campaign meltdown like McCain's has- and if it keeps up, anything's possible.

NC was one of the worst states for election malfeasance. Since then there have been changes at state level. But not sure if it will help enough. At any rate the 2004 election in NC was corrupt, so it's hard to use it to project what will happen in 2008.

One group whose motives remain suspicious (this group impacted the primary race in NC with their misleading robo calls). With helpers like these, who needs enemies?

----------------------------------
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Registration mailers from Women's group can disenfranchise you
Not so innocent. They're at it again. Women's Voices, Women Vote, aka The Voter Participation Center. Sending out registration forms to people already registered, sometimes with incorrect information, mispelled name or incorrect address.

We all thought that besides the illegal and very misleading robo calls in North Carolina that WVWV was basically "harmless" except for them swamping election officials with redundant forms for voters who were already registered. And that they were only inconsiderate jerks for sending registration forms to people who had been deceased for 5 years or more, or for sending registration forms to 8 year olds, or to people who are already registered.

IF people aren't careful, and send in the WVWV registration form, they may be sending in a form that misspells their name or has a small detail wrong, has a wrong address, or other mistake which in turn could get that person kicked off of the rolls.

Election directors tell me that voters often don't notice if/when WVWV has put the wrong address on the registration form. The voter sends the form in, and the BoE changes the voters address to match the one on the WVWV form. This could change your polling place location or even cause you to get a provisional ballot or even get you kicked off the rolls.Considering that Florida and 4 other states are requiring strict matching for new registrations or they block your registration, this is awful.

WVWV goes by the name of http://www.voterparticipationcenter.org/ also.

More on this at -- http://ncvoters.blogspot.com/2008/09/womens-voices-women-vote-forms-can.html

:hug:

But I think NC has too many people who have told me to my face "we're not ready for a black President" (names of the guilty suppressed).

This needs to be worked on.

Mark.

I have confidence that we will suceed :)

With that in mind, Obama needs ONLY 37% of the White vote to win NC. I think he has it.

The campaign has moved people from Indiana and GA and who knows where else to win NC. They were playing it as a state to force mcPOW to spend money, and along the way it turned into a swing state.

I really think it will go to Obama!

but in a good way! He ONLY needs 25% of the white vote!

(If you take away 25%, blacks, for Obama, you're left with 75% of the vote. I assumed you said "he only needs half of the white vote then", which would be 37%. Since he already has 25% of the vote though, he would only need 25% of the remaining votes)

unless obama is ahead by 15%, worry.

ELECTION theft is by far the BIGGEST problem North Carolina has ("voter theft" means theft by the voters, which is not the problem).

NC should have gone blue a few years ago. But the Helms mafia lives on and their helpers are still helping. There have been some changes to election law.

We'll see....

I can imagine them both going blue this year.

Greenville, NC has two new Dem voters. My son and my daughter-in-law.

Thats where I stay at for college.

There are way too many young people who are voting for the first time who will be casting their votes for Obama. My daughter among them.

...and a little child shall lead them...

wish I had that little animated gif of the stick figures running around.

that would be swell!

.

which looks as though they have ulterior motives.

Demographics have been shifting, even since 2004. The population is becoming liberal and more educated.

Conservative rural parts of the state have been hit the hardest economically and most need change. As you point out in your OP, we don't need all those voters, or even most. But I know we can shave off a few point in that part of the state. And we will.

NC state government is strongly Democratic, including a Democratic governor. That means that NC elects dems to statewide office. It also means that we have control of the Board of Elections, so you won't see the kind of voter purges, etc that you see in FL and states controlled by reps.

The polls have been about even, with McCain being only slightly ahead. It is a closable gap.

And finally, clearly the Obama campaign thinks they can win here. Obama, Biden and Michelle have been here non-stop for the past two weeks. They wouldn't bother if they didn't think they could win. At the very least, they force reps to defend what was supposed to be safe ground.

On the con side, dems haven't won a presidential election here in decades. Kerry lost by a large margin. But this is a strange time, and this candidate has already achieved what most of us would have called impossible a few years ago. Don't count him out in NC.

GOBAMA! GO NC! :kick:

I'm seeing about 4 to 1 Obama to mcCain bumber stickers.

In 2004, Bush stickers were everywhere. Kerry's stickers were rare.

definitely in play.

and thank you so much for your work to help elect Obama.

Me and the 25,000 in Greensboro on Saturday. All the university communities, the Triangle, many of my "hillbilly" kin in the mountains--we're all on board. And I understand that McCain doesn't have any plans to even come to NC before Nov. 4.

I'm feeling cautiously optimistic.

So KICK this thang!

Hasn't there been a lot of influx into the state, too, for the Research Triangle area - one big Delaware company relocated there - people were getting laid off or had to move to NC. So the old style racists could be overwhelmed with newbies!

It will be just that much sweeter for us Carolinians on DU when come election night NC turns Blue.

look at the polls, Obama is doing much better than Kerry who had a North Carolinian on the ticket. But beyond that the African-American vote will be motivated and it will be strong in turnout and in proportions for Obama.

:hug:

based on conversations I have had with folks here, and in assessing yard signs and bumper stickers, as well as the massive turnouts at the Obama stops here in Charlotte and Greensboro. Just a hunch for sure, but I feel pretty good about Obama's chances for a win. I feel pretty confident NC will give Liddy Dole the boot also.

In the past the presence of multiple military bases meant a huge percentage of those families always went Republican. That is not the case this time. THose military families for the most part do not speak out publicly because they have a loved one in the military, but in speaking with their friends and neighbors it is clear that the solid Republican voting from this group has been broken. They are fed up with multiple and extended deployments, and mistreatment of returning vets. And most know McCain is not the protector of veterans he claims to be.

It will be close, but I believe NC will go Blue this election.

Obama has a great chance of winning NC.

"My state voted for WHO???" :evilgrin:

but that doesn't mean Obama can't win. It'll be a tough battle and is definately a state I would not rule out yet.

for the first time and is CAPABLE of appealing to our demographics in a way others were not. Not even Edwards.

imho, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and North Dakota are not in play. Every other state is fair game (including NC). Absent outright theft or a suspension of the election due to some alleged crisis, this could be an historic landslide.

:dem:

-Laelth

One good thing about the primaries was that it brought dems into states like NC and Indiana hardcore. I think it would be a great idea to send Hillary in the western part of the state.

Joe Biden and Bill too. Thats where the Republicans get their large victory here.

I work for moveon.org here in Wilmington, and judging by our numbers and those of the offices in: Asheville, Fayeteville, Chapel Hill, Durham, and Raleigh our voter registration numbers for African-Americans and first time voters is up substantially more than in 2004.

While truths are shouted!

OBAMA IS GOING TO WIN THIS THING IN A LANDSLIDE!!!

But don't stop fighting the good fight;)

I think allot of red states are in play. Hell GA was in play a few weeks back. If GA was in play then NC is definitely in play.

Lots of new registrations, way more Obama bumper stickers in formerly Republican districts near Atlanta. Probably not a landslide, but I do think he'll win here.

nt

to see Barack Obama.


I believe you.

But it's certainly "in play".